CARACAS, VENEZUELA - Hugo Chavez is unwell. The normally voluble, hyperactive Venezuelan president is running his country from a hospital bed in Havana, after emergency surgery June 10 to deal with a "pelvic abscess" that interrupted the latest of his many visits to Cuba. What caused the abscess, or how severe it was, has not been revealed.

Officials say it is unrelated to the gimpy left knee that had slowed the president in recent weeks and required him to use a cane. Chavez continues to sign decrees, and his closest aides maintain he is on the mend and will soon be back in Venezuela.

Chavez's medical difficulties may well be exceeded by his political ones. Venezuela is in the throes of a presidential campaign that does not officially begin until next year. The opposition Democratic Unity coalition is due to choose its candidate in February. Assuming the government does not tamper with the timetable -- by no means guaranteed -- the election will be held in December 2012. But one issue already overshadows all others: Can the former army officer, who has been in power since 1999, win a third six-year term?

Having been mired in recession for a couple of years, and plagued by inflation of almost 30 percent, the country recently returned to growth. Thanks in part to higher oil prices, the government projects a 4 percent rise in gross domestic product this year, though private sector estimates are around half that. Even if growth remains modest, Chavez has squirreled away billions of dollars in unaudited public funds and should be able to pay for a pre-election spending binge.

He has been campaigning for months, having won approval in 2009 for a constitutional amendment that removed presidential term limits. There is no need for primaries, he said, "because it is well-known that I have assumed the responsibility of once again being a candidate for the presidency." With all the petro-state's resources at his command, the gift of gab and the power to force the broadcast media to carry his speeches live, he is a formidable opponent. But if polls are to be believed, this election will be no walkover, even if Chavez quickly returns to health.

One survey found the leading contender for the opposition candidacy -- Henrique Capriles, governor of Miranda state, which includes much of greater Caracas -- could beat him.

The playing field, though, will not be level. In addition to his blatant use of state resources for his campaign, Chavez enjoys a stranglehold over the electoral authority. Many state employees believe the government knows how they vote, a concern that will only grow if a proposal to equip electronic ballot machines with fingerprinting devices is approved. There is good reason to fear reprisals for supporting the opposition: After a 2003 signature collection drive that required Chavez to face a recall election, many public employees who signed the petition were fired or denied loans or official documents.

The government has also harassed potential opposition candidates. In 2004, Capriles spent four months in detention for entering the Cuban embassy during an attempted coup against Chavez in 2002. The case still hangs over him. Leopoldo Lopez, who leads the Popular Will party, has been banned from running because of flimsy corruption charges, and Manuel Rosales, who ran against Chavez in 2006 and faces similar charges, is in exile. Antonio Ledezma, mayor of Caracas and another declared candidate, has been stripped of nearly all powers and has seen his budget slashed.

The president's latest ploy to undermine his rivals is the deployment of special central government units with military-sounding names to some of the states most damaged by recent heavy rainfall.

Perhaps the best indicator of the government's nerves, however, is the extent to which Chavez's campaign promises have parted company with reality. After personally assuming responsibility for solving the country's huge housing deficit, the president has pledged to build 2 million homes in the next six years. That is roughly eight times the average rate over the last decade. "I'm staking my hide" on achieving it, Chavez declared -- or at least on voters believing it for long enough to re-elect him.