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Can President Donald Trump really win Minnesota?

October 18, 2019 at 8:21PM
President Trump addressed his supporters.
President Trump addressed his supporters including Cops for Trump led by Lt. Bob Kroll, president of the Police Officers Federation of Minneapolis.
President Trump addressed his supporters including Cops for Trump led by Lt. Bob Kroll, president of the Police Officers Federation of Minneapolis.
Andre Springer with son Michael,3, held up their sign for Trump. President Trump claimed a record crowd for Target Center.
President Trump addressed his supporters in Minneapolis on Thursday.
Chants of Four More Years at President Trump's rally.
Rep. Tom Emmer held a selfie stick before the rally.
A protester was booted while President Trump addressed his supporters.
President Donald Trump acknowledged Jennifer Carnahan at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Trump addressed his supporters.
There were a few empty seats in the top rows of Target Center before President Trump took the stage at the Target Center.
President Donald Trump acknowledged Rep Jim Hagedorn at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Trump addressed his supporters.
President Trump addressed his supporters.
Climate protester yells as rowds cheer for President Donald Trump at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Trump addressed his supporters.
President Donald Trump greeted cheering crowds at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Trump addressed his supporters.
People watch the Trump rally on a bit screen behind Target Field.
With tears running down their cheeks Brooklyn Hanneman, left, of Lino Lakes and Katie Bohn from Centerville watched President Trump. President Donald Trump greeted cheering crowds at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Donald Trump greeted cheering crowds at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Donald Trump greeted cheering crowds at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Donald Trump greeted cheering crowds at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Donald Trump greeted cheering crowds at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Donald Trump greeted Vice President Mike Pence to cheering crowds at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Donald Trump greeted cheering crowds at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Trump addressed his supporters.
President Donald Trump greeted cheering crowds at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Trump emerged from back stage at the start of the rally.
President Donald Trump arrived at Minneapolis-St. Paul Air Reserve Station on his way to speak at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Donald Trump held his umbrella as he climbed down from Air Force one before heading to his rally at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Donald Trump arrived at Minneapolis-St. Paul Air Reserve Station on his way to speak at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Trump supporters stood up fo the National Anthem and the Pledge of Allegiance.
Lt. Bob Kroll, president of the Police Officers Federation of Minneapolis made his support for Trump clear.
My Pillow founder Mike Lindell addressed supporters about his former drug addiction and creating jobs for Americans.
Cops for Trump supporters had a prime position behind the podium.
Lt. Bob Kroll, president of the Police Officers Federation of Minneapolis gave the thumbs up to supporters.
Trump supporters were loud and proud.
Linda Gilgosh of Brainerd wore a "Cult 45" shirt.
Trump supporters were loud and proud.
Supporters of President Trump were on hand early.] President Donald Trump addressed his supporters at a rally in Target Center in Minneapolis. RICHARD TSONG-TAATARII • richard.tsong-taatarii@startribune.com
Supporters of President Trump were on hand early.
Slide 1 of 42
President Trump addressed his supporters. (Minneapolis Star Tribune/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

There's no doubt that President Donald Trump is making a strong play for Minnesota, as evidenced by Thursday's rally at Target Center where he said, "We are going to fight with all of our heart and soul and we are going to win the great state of Minnesota in 2020." More telling are the hundreds of thousands of dollars his campaign has likely already spent here — with plans to spend millions more.

As the New York Times reported last week, the campaign "is planning to pour tens of millions of dollars into the Minnesota operation, compared with the $30,000 the Trump campaign spent on the state last cycle. The campaign already has 20 paid staff members in the state, and expects to expand to 100."

So, can he do it?

There are reasons to think he's making a smart bet.

In 2016, he came closer than any Republican to breaking the near half-century GOP losing streak since Ronald Reagan narrowly lost to favorite son Walter Mondale in 1984. Trump lost by just 44,000 votes.

Trump does best among white working-class voters. Although their share of the state's electorate is declining, these Minnesotans still make up about 55% of the population, according to a study published by the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

(A state like Virginia, by contrast, is diversifying too rapidly and filling with too many college graduates for Trump to compete.)

Trump may also have room to grow. Trump won the First and Eighth Congressional Districts by 15 points each, but their demographic and ideological profiles suggest he could pile up more votes in those districts, especially in northern Minnesota's Eighth, which is not the DFL bastion it once was.

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Then there's the strong economy. That's almost always the most important determinant of a president's re-election fate.

But there are also reasons to think this is a colossal waste of the Trump campaign's money. He only bested Mitt Romney's raw vote total by 5,000 — not much actual improvement — suggesting that part of the reason he came so close in 2016 is because Democrats stayed home. Which seems unlikely in 2020.

Then there's 2018. Every Republican running statewide hit a hard ceiling on their vote totals. Why? Don't take my word for it — Minnesota House GOP Minority Leader Kurt Daudt, who lost his speaker's gavel on election night 2018, said voters in the suburbs were casting protest votes against Trump.

Of course, Republicans losing statewide isn't exactly news. The last time a Republican won a statewide race in Minnesota was 2006, and "Borat" was in theaters.

Here's a wild card: 8.7% of Minnesota voters chose someone else in 2016 other than Trump or Hillary Clinton. Some people even left the presidential line blank. All told, that's about 277,000 votes up for grabs. A DFL operative tells me they were likely white men in the suburbs.

Here's what we know for certain: If Democrats can't hold Minnesota, Trump wins another four years in the White House.

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J. Patrick Coolican 651-925-5042 Twitter: @jpcoolican patrick.coolican@startribune.com

President Donald Trump greeted cheering crowds at the Target Center on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2019, in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
President Donald Trump greeted cheering crowds at the Target Center on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2019, in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Star Tribune/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Correction: Previous versions of this article misstated the number of Minnesota voters that did not vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump in 2016.
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J. Patrick Coolican

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