
Jimmy Butler's 37-point performance Monday in a game in which he was questionable to play because of back issues was an old-school demonstration of determination and grit. When the story of the Wolves season is ultimately told, I have a feeling we will remember how Butler and Jamal Crawford absolutely willed the Wolves to a one-point win over Portland — keeping Minnesota in the No. 4 spot in the West, pushing its record to 18-13 and changing the tenor of a home stand that would have been 2-3 and disappointing with a loss to 3-2 and upbeat with a win.
Butler's final offensive play, though, when he drove baseline, got fouled near the rim and made two free throws for the winning margin, was a nice mix of old-school and new-school. Conventional basketball wisdom says a drive to the basket in an end-of-game situation is better than a jump shot because more good things can happen. As advanced stats have become more prevalent in the NBA, too, we've learned that the most efficient shots in the league, by far, are either three-pointers or shots at the rim. The least efficient shots, by contrast, are long 2-pointers.
The Timberwolves' offense this season has been somewhat of a paradox. They rank fifth in offensive rating per Basketball Reference (an estimate of points scored per 100 possessions) at 111.6, and they're ninth in true shooting percentage, a weighted measure that factors two-pointers, three-pointers and free throws.
But they also take — some would say settle for — a lot of inefficient 2-point shots. Of the Wolves' attempted field goals this season, 73.2 percent have been from 2-point range, the third-highest percentage in the league. A full 28 percent of those have been from been from between 10 feet and the three point line, and another 19 percent have been from between 3 and 10 feet.
That means 53 percent of the Wolves' shots have been at the rim (between 0-3 feet) or three-point range. That's among the lowest percentages in the league. The Rockets — an extreme example — have attempted 82.8 percent of their field goals at the rim or from three-point range. They also lead the NBA in offensive rating.
Generally, all those shots — even the 3-10 footers — are much lower percentage shots than shots at the rim or 3-pointers. NBA teams, on average, are shooting 39.4 percent from 3-10 feet, 41 percent from 10-16 feet and 40 percent from 16 feet to the 3-point line.
The Wolves are among the best NBA teams from 3-10 feet (42.1 percent, thanks in large part to Jimmy Butler shooting 50.8 percent from that distance and Karl-Anthony Towns shooting 45.1 percent from that distance). The Wolves are excellent when they get to the rim, shooting 70.2 percent on those shots (third-best in the NBA). But by percentage of overall attempts, Minnesota lags at No. 22 in terms of shots taken at the rim (26.1 percent).
Those numbers suggest the Wolves have a good offense despite their drawbacks. They finish well in close and they get to the free throw line at a high rate. But they could be even better if they didn't settle for as many mid-range to long 2-pointers.