Nine years into a robust economic expansion, with Minnesota's unemployment rate at historic lows, the number of people on public health insurance for the poor is still at historic highs.
Back in 2013, when Minnesota's unemployment rate was 5 percent, the state had 740,000 people on Medical Assistance, also known as Medicaid. Since then, unemployment has fallen to 2.8 percent, while Medicaid rolls have grown every year, reaching 1.1 million.
The result is that, despite the strongest economy in a generation, roughly 1 in 5 Minnesotans qualify for subsidized health coverage.
That economic puzzle was compounded this month when the state released its latest budget forecast. It predicts that Medicaid growth will decelerate starting in 2019, the first sign of a slowdown since the Great Recession, but says total enrollment will not shrink in the next five years.
One reason for the program's growth is that Minnesota deliberately expanded Medicaid under the federal Affordable Care Act of 2010, expanding eligibility to single adults and to higher income levels.
But a second explanation is that, despite the sinking jobless rate, it is still a stubborn economy with respect to wage growth and employer health benefits, leaving many workers eligible for state health insurance.
"If history is any guide, we certainly should be seeing more rapid wage growth than we have been," said Steve Hine, a labor economist at the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development. "There is still this segment of our population that is not necessarily benefiting by the strong employment situation."
Some of the fastest growing sectors of the Minnesota economy are hospitality and retail, which traditionally offer lower wage part-time jobs that do not offer health insurance benefits.