Minnesota is in a soggy state after a historically wet spring

Minnesota is in a historic state of sogginess after one of the coldest and wettest springs ever.

The water level in White Bear Lake — which in recent years seemed in danger of drying up — is so high now that the lake's beaches are completely submerged.

In Minneapolis, Bde Maka Ska/Lake Calhoun is within inches of spilling over its shoreline.

And the southern third of Minnesota, bombarded by heavy winter and spring snowfall, is as wet as it's been in more than 80 years.

"It has been abnormally cold and wet," said Caleb Grunzke, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Chanhassen. "It's just rather annoying."

Statewide, 2019 is the sixth-wettest year to date since record-keeping began in 1871. For the Twin Cities area, it's the fourth-wettest year on record so far.

Summerlike weather finally arrived late last week as the clouds gave way to prolonged sunshine and temperatures approached 90 degrees. But it will take time for the state to dry out after the relentless parade of drab, dreary, drippy days that passed for spring.

"We've been lacking in sunshine and warm temperatures, and we've been overabundant on water," said Tom Hoverstad, a scientist with the University of Minnesota Extension in Waseca. "The combined cold and wet means that the water we do get, the evaporation hasn't been there. It's been a real challenge."

The outlook for the next couple of weeks is warmer and drier, said Brent Hewett, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Chanhassen. But the longer-term outlook for the southern part of the state is plenty moist.

The Climate Prediction Center shows a 33 percent chance of more rain than normal for the southern part of the state, Hewett said. The northern part of the state shows equal chances for precipitation above or below normal.

What's to blame for the soggy spell? The jet stream, said Pete Boulay, a climatologist with the state Department of Natural Resources.

The river of air high in the sky has stayed south of Minnesota, keeping warm air from moving north. Every month this year has been colder than normal, he said, including May, which was about 4 degrees colder than typical.

The good news? As the jet stream shifts north during the summer, we should get more warm air. The bad? It'll also bring more storms.

As tornadoes by the hundreds devastate states to our south, Minnesota has recorded only a handful of weak, relatively nonviolent twisters so far this year. That's expected to change, especially because June is the peak tornado month in Minnesota. In a typical year, the state will see 28 tornadoes, one-third of which hit in June.

With so much cold and rain this spring, some farmers, particularly in southwestern Minnesota, are debating whether to even plant a crop this year.

Hoverstad said roughly 15% of the corn crop in his part of the state has already been lost due to delayed planting caused by the saturated soil. And for every additional day of delay, a farmer can expect to lose about 2 ½ bushels of yield per acre at harvest time.

Many farmers may ultimately decide not to plant corn this year and instead take the payoff from their planting insurance, Hoverstad said.

"We are in a rare part of the world where one of the limitations to our crop production is too much water," he said. "Worldwide, that's a rarity. Most agricultural places in the world, any rain they get is a blessing. We frequently deal with too much precipitation."

On the positive side, crops are less "moisture-stressed" during the summer months, Hoverstad added, "but if you talk to farmers, I think the downside outweighs the upside."

While Minnesota has been spared the tornado threat breaking out in other parts of the country, Grunzke said he's concerned by the severity and frequency of the storms this year.

"We had severe outbreak events for eight to 10 days in a row," he said. "I haven't seen that in a long time."

Climate change? Grunzke isn't sure. "An active severe spring weather season is very common," he said. "I'd say climate change has the effect of making events more severe over time. If we start seeing more prolonged periods like this, I'd say there is a trend."

That said, Boulay notes a few good things about our gloomy spring.

"Because we've been cold, the blooming has been prolonged," he said. "We've still got full-bloom lilacs out there. Peonies haven't bloomed yet.

"So if you're looking at something positive, that could be one thing."

Staff writer Pam Louwagie contributed to this report. John Reinan • 612-673-7402