North Dakota gets a double dose of Democrat

The campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination will take a wholly unexpected detour Friday when it arrives full force in the GOP stronghold of North Dakota.

Within a few hours of each other, Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton will arrive in Grand Forks on the opening day of the state Democratic Party's convention.

Both will give speeches, both will hold private receptions for supporters -- and both will be fighting tooth and nail to wrest a few more national convention delegates from their rival's grasp.

The oddity of two Democratic candidates appearing back to back in one of the most reliably Republican states could be overshadowed by hand-to-hand combat on the convention floor that reflects the closeness of the race.

North Dakota voted Democratic in only one presidential election in the past 70 years.

And all of this is happening two months after North Dakota's caucuses were overwhelmingly won by Obama -- a result, it turns out, that isn't completely binding.

"There's no mechanism to force anyone to follow the caucus results," said Jamie Selzler, the Democratic-NPL Party's executive director. "The campaigns still see that people could be up for grabs and that they have the potential to win or lose delegates, so they're going to do whatever they can."

While any shifts of delegate strength are likely to be modest, Clinton campaign spokeswoman Karen Hicks said the New York senator's volunteers will work for every possible gain.

"You've got a number of states where the final [national convention] delegation is not set and, in a race where every delegate counts, she doesn't want to miss a chance to make her case," Hicks said.

A radical reshuffling of the delegates currently pledged to Clinton and Obama probably isn't in the cards, said Lloyd Omdahl, a Democratic eminence in the state and former lieutenant governor. "I don't think you'll see any significant shifting because both sides are pretty well dug-in by now," he said.

Bill Burton, of the Obama campaign, also played down the possibility of a conflict in Grand Forks.

"Sen. [Kent] Conrad asked him to attend," Burton said, explaining Obama's appearance, "And it's on the way from Indiana to Montana, where we're campaigning, so we decided to stop by. I can't figure out why Clinton's coming, too, though."

One other possibility is that having wooed delegates could pay dividends should the national convention go beyond a first ballot, after which delegates would be wholly free to vote their preferences.

Delegates' choice

When Obama won North Dakota's caucuses by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio, that translated into eight pledged delegates for the Illinois senator, five for Clinton.

"The caucus results are more than advisory, but the [state] convention is going to choose the individual delegates," Selzler said.

That vote will occur on Sunday, when the convention selects the delegates to send to the national convention for each candidate.

At the national convention, those delegates will be pledged to a candidate on the first ballot. But the only thing binding them is language in the party's rules that states the delegates "shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of the February 5th, 2008 Presidential Preference Caucus vote on the first ballot at the national convention."

The only enforcement tool to force delegates to strictly follow the caucus results "are personal appeals, from the party chair and other people of stature," Selzler said.

Minnesota's DFL caucus system, also won by Obama on Feb. 5, is more difficult to game, said party chairman Brian Melendez. No one in party officials' memories can remember a delegate switching from a caucus pledge, he said.

Small change, and yet

North Dakota's 21 total delegates might seem to be relatively small change in a nomination contest in which Clinton or Obama needs to accumulate 2,025 to win. But Obama holds a small lead of 132 over Clinton, according to the Associated Press count, making even small gains or losses potentially decisive.

North Dakotans in recent days were scratching their heads about the sheer improbability of both Democratic candidates showing up on the same day.

"A lot of people thought this was just payback to Conrad for being such an early supporter of Obama's, " said Mark Jendrysik, chair of the political science department at the University of North Dakota. "But it looks like Sen. Clinton decided to keep the focus on the campaign and make it a proxy confrontation instead of a day off for Obama in balmy Grand Forks."

Jendrysik said overly aggressive campaigning by Clinton supporters at the convention could end up backfiring. "It's not going to play very well here if it's seen that Hillary's people are trying to nullify Obama's win at the caucuses," he said.

After Obama agreed to come to Grand Forks, Clinton had little choice, Omdahl said. "She's trying to show she's willing to go all the way to the convention and not want to give an inch -- even in North Dakota," he said.

Party officials are delighted with the attention the twin visits have attracted and hope to fill the 19,000-seat Alerus Center. They also have aggressively promoted both candidates' appearances in the hopes of boosting attendance at the convention -- and potentially inserting another wild card into the proceedings, if a group of unknown newcomers show up to vote on the delegates.

Although the state hasn't backed a Democrat for president since 1964, a poll published last month showed Obama narrowly beating Arizona Sen. John McCain, 46 percent to 42 percent.

Jendrysik scoffed. "If North Dakota is in play this fall, the Republicans are truly doomed," he said.

Bob von Sternberg • 612-673-7184