On Saturday, either Loyola Chicago or Nevada will play for a spot in the Final Four of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, and if you're inclined to bet against either one with confidence, good luck.
At this point, nothing that happens with any of the remaining 16 teams should be shocking, regardless of what their seedings might suggest. Unless you still believe in assumptions and seedings, rather than your own eyes.
That was the biggest takeaway from a rollicking first weekend of a tournament that has built its popularity on unpredictability. Seedings inherently create drama because, by definition, every game has the potential for an upset. But if you could somehow ignore team names and seedings and just watch two teams playing basketball, the supposed talent disparity between smaller schools and blue bloods looked negligible in many of these upsets.
"Each time it happens," Northern Iowa coach Ben Jacobson said, "everybody is completely surprised that it took place and wonder how in the world it could happen. But it happens every single year."
Jacobson's team became one of those mid-major darlings in 2010 by reaching the Sweet 16 with an upset of No. 1 overall seed Kansas as a No. 9 seed.
Saul Phillips was coach at North Dakota State in 2014 when the Bison secured a No. 12 seed.
"Everybody on our team was like, 'Well, that's where the upsets happen,' " Phillips said.
They were right. NDSU knocked out No. 5 Oklahoma in overtime.
Only half of the teams seeded Nos. 1-3 remain alive in this tournament. None of the top four teams in the South Region is still playing. The first weekend was wacky but not necessarily fluky.