NHL Insider: Can Lightning upset Blackhawks?

The salary cap-strapped Chicago Blackhawks will have to do some pretty sly roster refurbishing this offseason, but this Stanley Cup Final isn't their last stand. The core of Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane — who begin new eight-year, $84 million contracts next season — will remain, and freak of nature defenseman Duncan Keith looks as if he can skate forever.

But we could be witnessing the initial stand of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Blackhawks are vying for their third Stanley Cup in six years, amazing in the era of cost certainty and parity. The Lightning, the last Cup champ in the pre-salary-cap world (2004), looks a lot like those early Blackhawks teams when Toews and Kane were young pups.

The electrifying Lightning has an average age of 26.2 and just beat three Original Six teams in a row. Tampa Bay is led by superstar Steven Stamkos (first overall draft choice in 2008), defenseman Victor Hedman (second overall in 2009) and a stellar young second line of Ondrej Palat, 24; Tyler Johnson, 24; and Nikita Kucherov, 21, who have combined for 28 goals this postseason.

While both of these teams are as good as it gets when it comes to defending, especially in the neutral zone, they advanced because of their high-octane offenses.

If this trend continues, it should be a fun final.

Toews, 27, is the pre-eminent leader of our time. It's not in him to lose. Just look at his résumé of playoff wins, Cups and Olympic golds. Just look at the way he played in Games 5, 6 and 7 last round against Anaheim.

Hall of Famer Steve Yzerman, the general manager of the Lightning and one of the most decorated hockey players in history, said Tuesday that Toews is "bigger, stronger, better" than him.

Stamkos, the Lightning captain, is one of the NHL's purest goal scorers. He had 50 and 60 goals in this muck-it-up league, has scored seven goals and seven assists in the past 12 games, and is so unselfish he accepted coach Jon Cooper's decision to move him to right wing this postseason.

He said Tuesday the vision of hoisting the Stanley Cup has been disrupting his pregame naps.

The Blackhawks are arguably the deeper team, but in a playoff series there's the theory that the victor is typically the team whose top eight players are better than the opponent's top eight.

The Blackhawks — 15-4 in playoff series during the Toews-Kane-Keith era — have shown this throughout their reign, especially in three consecutive years of knocking off the Wild.

This series could come down to best vs. best.

The 26-year-old Kane, who has scored 47 goals and 111 points in 110 career playoff games, is tied for second in the NHL with 10 goals and 20 points. Toews is tied for second with nine goals. Keith, 31, leads the NHL with a plus-13 and 537:04 in ice time and all defensemen with 16 assists and 18 points.

The Blackhawks are 16-0 all-time in the playoffs when Marian Hossa, still one of hockey's best two-way players, scores. Brandon Saad and Patrick Sharp are skilled forwards, Niklas Hjalmarsson is a defensive stalwart, and Brent Seabrook always shines in these months. Brad Richards, the 2004 Conn Smythe Trophy winner when Tampa Bay won the Cup, also has looked resurrected this postseason. He's now a crazy 8-0 in Game 7s.

For the Lightning, Yzerman has done a sensational job finding talent.

It starts with Cooper, a lawyer, who paid his dues coaching junior in the North American and U.S. Hockey Leagues and coached many of his current Lightning youngsters to a Calder Cup with Norfolk of the AHL in 2012.

The Lightning has been paced by the "Triplets" line of Johnson, Kucherov and Palat. Johnson leads the NHL with 12 goals and 21 points. Johnson was undrafted, Kucherov was a second-round pick and Palat was drafted 208th overall in 2011. Add in Stamkos and Alex Killorn, and the five forwards have combined for 42 of the Lightning's 55 playoff goals.

Hedman continues to evolve into a stud on Tampa Bay's fairly pedestrian blue line, which does include Anton Stralman, a huge pickup.

Hawks goalie Corey Crawford has given up three goals or more in eight of 13 playoff starts. But plain and simple: He has won 41 playoff games, a Stanley Cup and could have been the 2013 Conn Smythe Trophy winner over Kane.

In goal for Tampa Bay will be 6-7 Ben Bishop, a puck-mover extraordinaire. Everybody always seems to be waiting for him to crumble. Yet since making his playoff debut against Detroit, all the 28-year-old has done is become the third NHL goalie ever to pitch two Game 7 shutouts in the same postseason.

In the end, the Blackhawks have been there, done that. The Lightning has not. I'll go with Blackhawks in six, and I'm never wrong — well, except for almost every playoff series prediction this postseason.

Michael Russo • mrusso@startribune.com