Projecting pitchers is as difficult as it comes

Ryan Mills, Adam Johnson, Glen Perkins, Kyle Waldrop, Matt Fox, Jay Rainville and Matt Garza.

There's also Carlos Gutierrez, Shooter Hunt, Kyle Gibson, Matt Bashore, Alex Wimmers, Hudson Boyd, Jose Berrios and Luke Bard.

Know what this is? It's a list of pitchers the Twins drafted with either a first-round pick or a supplemental pick from my first year on the beat, 1998, to 2012. Out of these 15 pitchers, eight have pitched in the majors, and only three — Garza, Perkins and Gibson — have accumulated a WAR over 4.0.

It proves that the Twins have annually drafted their share of pitchers. It also proves how often they have drafted the wrong ones. Or how difficult it is to visualize what a 17-year-old high school star or a 21-year old college kid will look like in five years.

I stopped after the 2012 draft (Berrios and Bard) because the jury is still out on first-round picks Kohl Stewart (2013) and Tyler Jay (2015). Both are battling injuries at Class AA Chattanooga.

This is important to keep in mind as the annual draft begins on Monday. The league is about to spend over $240 million for bonuses over the first 10 rounds — based on recommended bonus pools — and many of those players will never reach the majors. Even Ndudi Ebi played some for the Wolves. Maybe he didn't deserve to, but he did.

Still, the Twins have $14.1 million in bonus pool money, more than any other team, to build a draft class. They should end up with around 20 pitchers by the end of the three-day session.

That includes a supplemental pick, the 35th choice overall, which gives them three of the first 37 picks. It will be surprising if they don't take at least two pitchers with those.

Since we have obsessed over whom the Twins will take with the first overall pick, here are some players who could be on the board when the Twins have the 35th and 37th picks:

• Hans Crouse, a righthander from Dana Hills High in Dana Point, Calif: Throws hard with a good breaking ball. Could hit 100 mph if he becomes a reliever.

• Alex Lange, a rigthhander from LSU: Throws 90-94 mph with a good, hard breaking ball. Getting a feel for a changeup.

• Mark Vientos, a shortstop/third baseman from American Heritage High in Plantation, Fla.: He has excellent power potential but is a Miami commit who might require an over-slot bonus offer.

• Tanner Burns, a righthander from Decatur, (Ala.) High. Throws 92-94 and can touch 95-96. He also has a good, hard breaking ball and can throw a changeup.

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE

INDIANS: The offense has been inconsistent, and it looks as if imposters have taken over a rotation that carried the team to the World Series last season. Cleveland is not Cleveland. Is it a hangover effect from last year's deep playoff run? "If there is a residual effect X— I'm not talking physical — then shame on us," manager Terry Francona said. "We're better than that."

• • •

ROYALS: Relievers have to shake off bad outings, but closer Kelvin Herrera is going through that a little too much right now. Herrera has given up seven home runs this season, most recently to Jose Altuve in a 6-1 loss to Houston on Thursday. That's one more than all of last season. "Location's the problem," he said.

• • •

TIGERS: When James McCann landed on the DL with a lacerated left hand, Alex Avila was handed more playing time and entered the weekend with a .322 batting average plus nine home runs. Now that McCann is back, the Tigers are going to a lefty-righty platoon but not to the point where the lefthanded-hitting Avila gets worn down.

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WHITE SOX: It's been a rough 13 months for Faribault High product Jake Petricka, but he's back to full health with the White Sox. Petricka pitched in nine games last year before his season ended in May with a right hip injury that required surgery. He returned to spring training ready to contribute, but a strained right lat the first week of the season landed him on the DL. Now he's activated and back in the bullpen.

The 3-2 pitch

Three observations …

•  Over the past nine days, we have seen a no-hitter (by Edinson Volquez), a 600th career home run (by Albert Pujols), seven grand slams in one day, a four-homer game (by Scooter Gennett) and a four-stolen base game (by Cameron Maybin). It doesn't get any better than that.

•  What has happened to the Cardinals? They are averaging fewer than three runs a game this month, they are making defensive mistakes, and there are rumblings about Mike Matheny's job security. This is not the Cardinals we're used to seeing.

•  This is the Aaron Hicks the Twins envisioned when they drafted him in 2008 — just not in a Yankees uniform. And it is why they should be patient with Byron Buxton while he searches for his offense.

… and two predictions

• The Giants will be sellers at the trade deadline, a rarity during the Bruce Bochy era.

• Boston will pass the Yankees and be in first place in the AL East by the All-Star break.

Baseball reporters La Velle E. Neal III and Phil Miller will alternate weeks • lneal@startribune.com Twins blogs: startribune.com/twins