Rayno: Losing sleep over NCAA upset specials

Like every year, hours after first digesting the bracket on Selection Sunday, I scrambled to fill out my picks to publish in Tuesday's paper.

Also right on cue, this morning I woke up filled with anxiety about a handful of choices, all of them involving upsets.

This season's talented, balanced field, more than any other in recent memory, creates so many possible pivots. They say anything can happen, and they are probably going to be right this March. But what will happen?

I have Stephen F. Austin making big waves early and late — and I still like that, but I'm starting to doubt the Lumberjacks ability to get past, ahem, Xavier, in a surprising stampede to the Elite Eight. I'm also wavering on my Iona pick, but wishing I'd jumped on board with Stony Brook and Arkansas-Little Rock.

Luckily for you, you have more time to make your selections and learn from my meandering between decisions and indecision. So what first-round upsets should you pick? Here are some ideas:

SF Austin is the best in the nation at turning teams over (25.9 percent of possessions) and has a secret weapon, Thomas Walkup, who leads the Lumberjacks with 2.09 steals per game and an offensive rating of 133.1 (fourth nationally). West Virginia, meanwhile, has a couple of convenient flaws: the Mountaineers rank 273rd in offensive turnovers percentage, per analyst Ken Pomeroy, and send opponents to the line at a higher rate (54.8 percent of all allowed field goals) than any other team in the country. Mark it down.

Anxiety level: Sleep easy.

The Panthers beat the likes of Iowa State, North Carolina and Wichita State (twice) this year, and in the past 13 games they have just a single loss. UNI turns the ball over on only 15.2 percent of possessions, and tied for the fewest fouls per game (15.1) in the nation. On the other end, UNI makes 75.3 percent of its own freebies, 17th best. A somewhat inconsistent Texas team will have its work cut out for it.

Anxiety level: Tossing and turning.

Most small schools would be intimidated by Purdue's towering trio — two 7-footers and a menacing 6-9 refrigerator. But Little Rock's frontcourt consists of Jalen Jackson (6-6), Mareik Isom (6-9) and Lis Shoshi (6-11), making up a back-line defense that won't back down from the Boilers' physicality. Seriously, Chris Beard, where are you finding these guys and what are you feeding them? I like Purdue, but this upset wouldn't shock me.

Anxiety level: Tossing and turning.

Kentucky often has looked average away from Rupp Arena, where the Wildcats have lost to the likes of LSU, Auburn and Tennessee. But this one is really about the Seawolves' Jameel Warney. The 6-8 senior is the fourth-best offensive rebounder in the nation (4.41 per game), the fifth-best shot blocker (3.03 per game), has the ninth-best field-goal percentage (.637) and his two best games of the year have come in the past three. He won't be daunted.

Anxiety level: Tossing and turning.

Iowa State, hindered by a banged-up Monte Morris, could find a tricky match in a squad that can beat the Cyclones at their own game. The Gaels are electric scorers and boast A.J. English, a senior wing who has gone off for 27 or more eight times and scored 40-plus twice, including 45 in an overtime loss to Monmouth. But Iowa State is more talented overall, and — much like myself — the Cyclones I picked to win it all a year ago are probably more wary this time around, considering Iona is a trendy pick and memories of an upset loss to UAB are still fresh (sigh).

Anxiety level: Wake up in a cold sweat.