The news that our embassy in Iraq was under siege should not come as a surprise ("U.S. embassy siege in Iraq ends," front page, Jan. 2). It was pretty much destined to happen and heralds the end of the grand neoconservative experiment in the Middle East. The popular explanation for the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was that President George W. Bush was finishing what his father began, or perhaps keeping Saddam Hussein from acquiring nuclear weapons. The former might hold some water, but I have come to accept a different theory altogether.
My belief is that Bush, former Vice President Dick Cheney, former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and the rest of the neocons thought they could plant a democracy in the Middle East and that it would spread like wildfire to neighboring countries. This Iraqi democracy would shine like a beacon, and the people of Syria, Iran and maybe even Afghanistan would rise to embrace those ideals. Sadly, this concept has resulted in so much hogwash because we failed to fully understand the dynamics of the situation we were creating.
This was not the first time we totally miscalculated the politics and religion of the Middle East. In the 1970s, we underestimated the religious tension in Iran that led to the ouster of the Shah, the siege of yet another American embassy and a hostage situation that lasted 444 days. Those who are old enough will remember the effect that had on the 1980 presidential election.
There is irony in the fact this is all happening as we enter yet another national election cycle. One might also suggest there is irony in our failure to learn from our mistakes. The greatest irony is that the same Iran to whom former President Ronald Reagan clandestinely sold weapons will be the influence that takes down our puppet government in Iraq and forces us to re-evaluate our policy in the Middle East.
Dale Jernberg, Minneapolis
CLIMATE CHANGE
If we act, our air gets cleaner and we get healthier. Why wouldn't we?
Either the thousands of climate scientists across the world are correct (bet A), saying that if we do not bring CO2 emissions down significantly and rapidly in the next 30 years, then we will be ruining the planet for our kids and all future generations ... or they are wrong (bet B).
People who do not take meaningful action to help reduce emissions are betting their kids' and grandkids' future that the scientists are wrong (or they don't want to be inconvenienced, or they think it's hopeless — sorry, kids). People who take meaningful action to try to preserve a livable planet are betting the scientists are right and that action, by all of us, is urgently needed. They don't want to bet their kids' future.
If the B bet is wrong, but we do nothing and CO2 levels continue to rise, we will ruin the livable planet for a thousand years. Everyone loses. If the A bet is wrong, but we do take action, bring down CO2 levels and maintain a livable planet, with clean, renewable energy, then everyone wins! For any thinking risk manager, bet A is the obvious and only rational choice.
Which big bet are you making (because every one of us is making this bet)?