The Washington Post
In a written statement, House Speaker Paul Ryan's longtime adviser Brendan Buck said, "After nearly twenty years in the House, the speaker is proud of all that has been accomplished and is ready to devote more of his time to being a husband and a father. While he did not seek the position, he told his colleagues that serving as speaker has been the professional honor of his life, and he thanked them for the trust they placed in him."
The political reality is less noble. One can hardly imagine a more obvious signal that the Wisconsin Republican fears the prospect, if not of losing his own seat, than of losing the majority and hence his speakership. In the past, speakers — understanding the demoralizing impact that premature white-flag-waving would have on their troops — had the good sense to wait until after the election to announce that they would exit the leadership of their party. Ryan's move has several consequences.
First, Democrats (who were heavily spending to defeat Ryan) can declare victory in that race and save the money it would have taken to knock out a sitting speaker. Get ready for Democrats' taunts that Ryan lacked the courage to stand before the voters with a record like his.
Second, this is a flashing light to donors and candidates on both sides. For Republican money-men, the message is: Don't throw away cash trying to save the House. (One wonders whether Ryan, previously a strong fundraiser, will still be able to get donors to open their wallets when he's abandoning ship.) For Democrats, it will be further encouragement to add to the record number of candidates and to get on board for a Democratic sweep. In a wave year, with the GOP leaderless, why not throw your hat into the ring?
Third, this will be seen in some quarters as a sign that Ryan cannot bear defending the president from potential impeachment. It has been a chore to act as Trump's lead apologist, ignoring Trump's outbursts and justifying his zigzags. Trump is now going down a protectionist road that Ryan deeply opposes. As much as this is a sign of no confidence in his House majority, it is effectively an admission: "I can't take it anymore!"
Imagine how much more stressful it will be if and when the special counsel returns a report that makes the case for impeachment.
Fourth, as we have noted, it is highly unlikely that Trump is going to deliver any more items on the GOP domestic wish-list. With tax cuts under his belt, Trump shows little interest or ability to proceed with arduous negotiations on infrastructure, health-care fixes, entitlements or much of anything else. Trump surely is not going to abandon his base to push for comprehensive immigration reform. Ryan seems to agree that the GOP has gotten whatever it is going to get from this president.