Soccer insider: Don't bet on Leicester to repeat in Premier League

Last season's top Premier League story ended up being Leicester City, as the unheralded Foxes ran away with the most improbable top-division title in English soccer history. The new season of the Premier League kicks off this week, and the question is less whether the Foxes can do it again — the odds are actually shorter on Leicester being relegated than they are on a repeat title — and more about how they managed to do it in the first place.

One of the keys to Leicester's triumph last season was that the Foxes played virtually the same team for the entire season. Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez and N'Golo Kante, the team's three biggest stars, missed a combined total of four games. Unlike its competition, Leicester could focus almost entirely on the Premier League, as it played just five games outside its league schedule. In contrast, thanks to European and domestic cup commitments, Arsenal and Tottenham played 15 extra games and Manchester City 21 — almost all midweek games in between Premier League fixtures. Is it any wonder that everyone but Leicester City faltered down the stretch?

This year, then, the title conversation might begin with two traditional favorites that don't have the pressure of European soccer to contend with: Liverpool and Chelsea. The former finished eighth, the latter 10th, and now neither will be stuck with midweek trips to far-flung European destinations. Both have strong, well-regarded managers that are entering their first full seasons in charge — Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool and Antonio Conte at Chelsea. Both teams improved over the summer, as Liverpool poached striker Sadio Mane from Southampton, and Chelsea filched Kante from Leicester City, as well as buying French attacker Michy Batshuayi. Liverpool, which played much of last year under Klopp, might be further ahead than Chelsea at the moment, but both could feature heavily in the title race.

It also will be hard to write off Manchester United, which spent its enormous yearly transfer budget not only on bringing in superstars Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Paul Pogba but on installing manager Jose Mourinho in charge. Mourinho failed utterly at Chelsea last year, but "The Special One" is motivated to live up to the managerial reputation of Sir Alex Ferguson at Old Trafford.

Manchester City also spent both lavishly and wisely to make another run at European success, and has former Barcelona and Bayern Munich manager Pep Guardiola to lead the team. Both Leicester (save for Kante) and Tottenham have most of their top-three squads back.

All three of the squads, though, have to deal with Champions League pressure, dimming their chances — as does Arsenal, which has again failed in the summer transfer market, and already has its yearly injury crisis brewing, before the season has even started.

Liverpool and Chelsea, though, have the strength — and the lighter schedule — to go all the way to May in the title race. Whether the rest of the traditional favorites can keep pace remains to be seen.

• In the end, the U.S. women's national team couldn't climb to the top of the international mountain, losing in a penalty shootout to Sweden in the quarterfinals of the Olympics. It's an understandable letdown, the year after a World Cup title, but it also represents the first time the U.S. has finished outside the top three at a major tournament — a huge disappointment in any case.

• According to reports, Lionel Messi's retirement from the Argentina national team will last a grand total of two months. Messi, who said he'd no longer play for his country following a second consecutive loss in the Copa America final, will reportedly announce that he'll play for Argentina in this fall's World Cup qualifiers after all.

Premier League: Leicester City at Hull City, 6:30 a.m. Saturday, CNBC. Get up early to get the season started by reminiscing about last year with Leicester City. Last year manager Claudio Ranieri insisted for the first half of the year that his goal was earning 40 points to avoid relegation. His target for the season this year? "Forty points. Don't laugh," he told reporters.

Premier League: Liverpool at Arsenal, 10 a.m. Sunday, NBCSN. Liverpool's preseason highlight was a 4-0 win against Barcelona in front of nearly 90,000 people at Wembley Stadium, but now the games are for real. Arsenal is already facing a dismaying reality; both of the team's center backs have suffered long-term injuries, leaving Arsenal woefully thin and potentially at Liverpool's mercy.

DFL Supercup: Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund, 1:30 p.m. Sunday, FS1. The opening exhibition of the German season matches up last year's winner vs. last year's second-place side. Bayern is heavily favored to add a fifth consecutive Bundesliga title this year; Dortmund is, as usual, about all that stands in Bayern's way. This game is meaningless in the standings but not in the mind.