We are living in the era of what many people refer to as "MLS 2.0." Version 1.0 was the original 1996 version, when the teams in the new league were saddled with names and jerseys that appeared to have been stolen from a defunct roller hockey league. Version 2.0 came into being in the early 2000s, when the league recovered from early struggles and started placing teams in soccer hotbeds, teams that quickly began to eclipse those that were around in the league's humble early years.
We are headed now for version 3.0 — the mature, stable league that founders envisioned when they set up Major League Soccer. What that means for local fans, though, and for the teams that came in during the first two versions, is not necessarily good.
Counting the impending expansion teams in Los Angeles and Miami, MLS is already at 24 teams and looking for more. Late in January, MLS officially opened up bidding for the league's next round of franchises. Twelve cities submitted bids, most complete with airbrushed stadium renderings, cautiously supportive comments from local government officials and MLS-themed Twitter hashtags.
All that's clear right now is that the league is headed at least to 28 teams, and possibly more. Such growth would rival the other four major pro sports in North America, all of which have 30 or more teams.
When that happens, what comes next is anyone's guess. MLS is already one of the world's largest first-division leagues. Most other countries' first-division leagues have somewhere in the area of 20 teams. One of the few to rival MLS is Argentina's league, which expanded to 30 teams in 2015. But the expanded Primera Division is so hated in that country that the league is slowly shrinking itself back to 24 squads.
MLS is showing no signs of shrinking itself, either by introducing a two-division setup or otherwise. With a dozen more cities clamoring to get into the league, there soon won't be enough teams to go around. That means one thing: Once the league hits whatever limit it might set for itself, there will be a period of franchise moves, where expansion ceases and established teams pick up and go.
Those teams in the first rounds of MLS expansion should be worried. If there's anything we've learned from other sports, particularly the NFL, it's that team owners are never happy with their current stadiums, not if there's another owner out there with a newer and shinier arena. Soon, current MLS cities may be asked to pony up again. If there's resistance, their teams may leave for markets offering more glitz.
Teams will move when MLS 3.0 gets here. The teams without soccer-specific stadiums — currently including Minnesota — or those with older stadiums in particularly far-flung suburbs, such as Chicago, are probably the most under threat.
