Talk soup

You won't have to wait another four years for a contest as thrilling, unpredictable and wild as these summer Olympics. The sport to watch just 10 months from now will be late-night yakking, as Jay Leno departs "The Tonight Show," Conan O'Brien moves to Los Angeles, David Letterman contemplates retirement and O'Brien's successor, Jimmy Fallon, attempts to perform without dissolving into a puddle of giggles.

The stage is set for the talk-show genre's most competitive era since Steve Allen started it all a half-century ago. Most of the major players aren't commenting on the upcoming battle, but we strong-armed a number of experts -- both on and off the record -- to speculate on some burning questions:

Why would NBC executives risk losing Leno?

The smart-aleck answer is that they're a bunch of idiots. Keep in mind, however, that the suits made the decision to hand over "The Tonight Show" to O'Brien back in 2004, well before they employed Hiro Nakamura, the "Heroes" time-traveler who could have leaped into the future and warned them that they were making a big boo-boo.

Four years ago, Leno was already 12 years into his stint on "Tonight" while O'Brien's "Late Night" show was as red-hot as his flop of hair. NBC appeared to be in danger of losing its up 'n' comer and being left with a mainstream host who wasn't getting any younger (or hipper).

But since then, O'Brien's ratings have eroded, thanks to growing success for rivals Jimmy Kimmel and Craig Ferguson. At the same time, the old guy (Leno's actually just 58) has stayed on top of the heap. He continues to be the No. 1 force in late night, helping his network rake in roughly $300 million in revenue a year.

"I can't believe that they're going to let this guy go at the top of his game," said ABC entertainment president Steve McPherson.

The network is unlikely to change its mind. If it reneged on its contract with O'Brien, it would have to pay a $40 million penalty. NBC's best hope is to somehow keep Leno -- if only so he won't jump networks and go head-to-head with Conan -- but unless it offers him the "NBC Nightly News," 329 vintage cars and a spot on Mount Rushmore, that's probably not going to happen.

OK, wise guy. So where will Leno wind up?

On easy street. When the comic leaves the "Tonight Show" stage May 29, he'll have options that will definitely jack up his reported $27 million salary (which is at least $4 million less than Letterman is paid).

The initial thought was that Leno would retire to the stand-up comedy circuit, but close friends believe his creative -- and competitive -- juices are still flowing.

"The first chance he gets to go somewhere else and kick NBC's butt, he's going to do it," said comedian Tom Dreesen, a frequent guest on late-night talkers and the subject of a new book, "Tim & Tom: An American Comedy in Black & White," a look at his stand-up partnership with "WKRP" star Tim Reid. "Jay would lead you to believe that he's not competitive, but he is."

Going into syndication, always a perilous route, seems too risky even for an established star such as Leno, which leaves Fox and ABC as the most likely suitors.

Fox doesn't control its late-night scheduling, meaning that it would have to strike individual deals with each affiliate to secure the late-night slot. Plus, Leno might be a bit old-fashioned for a network that carries "Family Guy."

That leaves ABC as the likeliest destination, and its news show "Nightline" as a probable casualty. Network execs have been callous about the show in the past, even offering Letterman that slot several years ago, and they won't hesitate to sacrifice it again.

Kimmel, whose show runs on ABC after "Nightline," stands to gain no matter what Leno decides. If the big hitter comes over, Kimmel will be in the cleanup position, or he'll get courted by Fox. If Leno goes elsewhere, Kimmel could wind up with an earlier slot.

OK, enough about Leno. I'm a Letterman guy. How much longer will he stick around?

I was getting to that. The "Late Show" host has been in late night for 26 years. Johnny Carson put in 30 years. Could Letterman be waiting until 2012 (his current contract expires in 2010) to step down after three decades, just as his idol did?

His longtime pal Dreesen likes this theory, especially if Letterman wants to spend more time with his son, Harry, who is now 5. But Dreesen also points out that Letterman may not want out anytime soon.

"What would he do if he wasn't doing that show?" Dreesen said. "He's built himself a great circle and he's a great quarterback."

If Letterman does move on, it wouldn't be a surprise if CBS tapped Comedy Central's Jon Stewart, who has hosted "The Daily Show" for nine seasons and may be looking for a new challenge. (Comedy Central and CBS are both owned by Viacom.)

What about Fallon? I think he's cute enough to gobble up with a dollop of whipped cream, but I'm not sure he can host a late-night show.

Um, please leave your sordid fantasies to yourself. Fallon was never a breakout star on "Saturday Night Live" and his movie career has been less than stellar ("Taxi," anyone?), but he has one huge supporter in his corner: Lorne Michaels.

The "SNL" creator, who also tapped O'Brien, has the magic touch. He seems to be taking a smart approach by planning to launch Fallon online in March or April of 2009, giving him several months to "practice" until his official debut as O'Brien's replacement next fall.

Still, more late-night shows fail than succeed. Just ask Magic Johnson, Chevy Chase, Joey Bishop, Joan Rivers, Stephanie Miller, Keenan Ivory Wayans or Pat Sajak.

Hey, where are the women at?

As Jerry Lewis has pointed out on numerous occasions, women just aren't funny. I'm kidding, of course, but late night has always been the playground for the guys.

Bonnie Hunt confirmed last month that she was offered "The Late, Late Show" slot after Craig Kilborn retired, but she passed. (She will launch a daytime talk show in September.) There are plenty of other women who could, and should, be part of the late-night scene.

Top of my list: Amy Sedaris, the multitalented actress and co-creator of "Strangers With Candy" who is equally adept at cooking segments and screwball comedy. I'd love to see what she could contribute to the genre.

Hey, you're not really the weirdo I thought you were. Want to get a drink?

Thanks, but no thanks.

njustin@startribune.com • 612-673-7431