The Tom Brady move is exciting, but it won't be super

It's hard not to get excited about Tom Brady changing conferences and signing with Tampa Bay.

So, go ahead and backflip your way into the nearest overpriced Buccaneers No. 12 creamsicle jersey. Or quiver with fear that Tom's about to steal the Halas Trophy from your favorite NFC team.

But if you're asking whether all this hype actually will merge with G.O.A.T.-like/Patriot Way-type success, the answer is …

Nope.

Why?

Couple reasons, other than Father Time's undefeated record and this observer playing the odds after witnessing every new-team final act of every great NFL career going back to Johnny U. leaving Baltimore for the Chargers in 1973.

First reason: The ultimate TEAM Brady played 20 years for — and was allowed to walk away from via free agency — spent the 2010s going 141-42 with 10 division titles and three Super Bowl wins.

Yes, Bill Belichick never won a Super Bowl without Brady. But that shallow-minded argument swings both ways when both parties are G.O.A.T.s and one of them assembles the entire TEAM.

The benefit of the doubt here says Belichick's TEAM will win more games than Brady's TEAM in 2020. The benefit of the doubt here says time will justify Belichick's decision to force Brady's exit by offering him less money to play at age 43 than the relatively workable $23 million he made at age 42.

Now it's up to Brady and the Bucs to prove otherwise.

Can they do it?

Sure. It's the NFL.

He'll probably need at least two more swings before Bruce Arians and the Bucs develop a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Peyton Manning needed two seasons in Denver before he got back to the Super Bowl and four seasons before the Broncos carried him to his second Super Bowl win in his final game.

Secondly, the Bucs are indeed a team on the rise. A team that can go higher without Jameis Winston throwing 30 picks.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are one of the NFL's best receiver duos. O.J. Howard is more than good enough at tight end.

And Antonio Brown might follow Brady to Tampa and, who knows, even behave himself this time.

The Bucs ranked fourth in scoring (28.6) last season. They also ranked 29th in points allowed (28.1), but still have a potentially extraordinary front seven and a real chance to make a quick turnaround alongside an offense that doesn't lead the league with 41 turnovers.

But his system doesn't mesh with how Brady has played for most of the past two decades. Except for all those deep balls to Randy Moss back in 2007, Brady has pretty much been a rhythm passer who uses precision, timing and smarts to strike before being struck.

Sure, he still has the arm strength to stretch the field. But the Bucs don't have the offensive line to protect a 43-year-old pocket passer who's leaning too heavily on the deep ball.

Winston's 47 sacks last year were more than any of Brady's 20 season totals. So while Arians doesn't have to turn the entire offense over to Brady, like Denver did with Manning, it's vital that Brady's rhythmic game not be disturbed.

Chances are Brady's final act won't be sad like Johnny U.'s in San Diego or Joe Namath's in Los Angeles. It probably will be competitive and maybe even rival Joe Montana's in Kansas City or Brett Favre's first year in Minnesota.

But will Brady win more games than Belichick and finish this season by leading the Bucs to Super Bowl LIV in their home stadium?