This is the latest installment in our ongoing Top Prospect Countdown at Twins Daily. Once you've gotten your fill of Star Tribune's great Twins content, swing on by our place to check out the rest of the entries in this series, as well as our on-site spring training coverage from Ft. Myers, which will get underway this week!
TwinsCentric: Tyler Jay prepping for big transition
The Twins' top 2015 draft pick has much to prove this year.
By Nick Nelson
February 29, 2016 at 3:17AM
In 2014, the Twins used their second draft pick to select the best collegiate closer in the nation, Nick Burdi, whom I profiled last week as Twins Daily's choice for the 10th-best prospect in the organization.
A year later, they once again set their sights on the top closer in college baseball, this time taking Tyler Jay out of the University of Illinois at No. 6 overall.
Age: 21 (DOB: 4/19/94)
2015 Stats (A+): 18.1 IP, 3.93 ERA, 22/8 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP
ETA: 2018
2015 Ranking: N/A
National Rankings
What's To Like
Read a few articles on Jay, dating back to the days when pro scouts were still evaluating him in college, and you'll see him repeatedly characterized as a "late-bloomer." He even describes himself as such.
While attending high school in suburban Illinois, Jay was a talented yet gangly hurler at around 6'0" and 150 lbs. His fastball sat in the mid-80s and he didn't attract a whole lot of attention from big-name college programs. He ended up staying close to home, committing to the Fighting Illini after his senior year in 2012.
Jay had a solid freshman season with Illinois but his coming-out party came as a sophomore. As he added weight and strength, he also added ticks of velocity, inching up into the mid-90s. He took over as the team's closer and posted stellar numbers, finishing the season with a 1.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 47-to-13 K/BB ratio in 41 2/3 innings.
That summer, the lefty was invited to join the U.S. National Team, and that's where he really burst onto the scene. Playing alongside the country's most elite collegiate talent, Jay made a team-high 15 appearances and didn't allow a run, striking out 21 and holding opponents to a .130 batting average.
The next year he returned as closer for Illinois and enjoyed his best season, tallying 14 saves with a 1.08 ERA and 0.70 WHIP. By this point he was routinely hitting 95 from the left side with good command and strong secondary pitches, a combination that placed him squarely in the Top 10 discussion for the upcoming MLB Draft.
The question: Which team was going to gamble such a high pick on a relief pitcher? As it turns out, that team was Minnesota.
The selection was based on the Twins' belief that Jay could develop into an impact starter as a pro, an opinion that is reinforced by many independent scouting reports. His frame, mechanics and assortment of different quality pitches all position him as a candidate for a successful transition to the rotation.
For what it's worth, the decision to use him as closer instead of starter at Illinois was not based on Jay's limitations. Coach Dan Hartleb trusted the other starting options he had, and liked Jay's makeup at the end of games. Evidently it was a good decision because the Fighting Illini enjoyed their best season in program history.
But another major thing to like about Jay is his relatively high floor. Because even if he doesn't take as a starter, he looks like almost a lock to be an impact lefty relief arm in the majors, given the way he has thoroughly dominated in that role at even the highest levels of collegiate competition.
What's Left To Work On
We can talk all day about how Jay has the skills and traits required to become a starter, but at this point, the fact is that he hasn't done it. Of the 71 appearances he made over three years with the Illini, only two were starts, and all 19 of his outings with the Ft. Myers Miracle after signing last year came out of the bullpen.
We simply don't know how his body will adjust to the rigors of throwing 90-100 pitches every fifth day, or whether taking something off the pitches that he's been able to maximize by throwing in short stints will dramatically alter his effectiveness.
What's Next
More than any other prospect profiled on this list, the 2016 season is immensely important for Jay, because he'll finally be making the big leap to starting after being eased in at Single-A as a reliever last summer.
The 21-year-old will presumably open the year back at Ft. Myers, because moving up a level while also adapting to an unfamiliar role is quite a bit to ask. If Jay comes out as a starter throwing in the mid-90s, missing bats and getting sterling results, he'll probably finish the year in Double-A and by this time next year he'll be viewed as one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the minors.
If the transition does not go smoothly, the Twins are going to have to ask themselves just how long they want to screw around with trying to make it work, especially in light of the fact that he could likely be fast-tracked to the majors as a reliever.
