University of Minnesota should go all in with online learning

Amazon recently announced plans to acquire Whole Foods for $13.7 billion. Within minutes of the announcement, the stock market handsomely rewarded Amazon and punished traditional retailers, including Target, because the acquisition was regarded as "a game-changer" within the retail grocery space. Surprisingly, in April, when Purdue University acquired for-profit Kaplan University (the online provider of higher education) through an innovative financing arrangement, commentators and higher-education officials — including the University of Minnesota — greeted the announcement with a collective yawn.

Dismissing the educational acquisition is a mistake, and here's why: Purdue's bold move poses a greater threat to Minnesota's institutions of higher learning than Amazon's purchase of Whole Foods presents to Target.

It is no secret that today's rapidly rising tuitions and crushing student debt levels are not sustainable. Globalization, accelerating technological change and a plethora of substandard university courses are also calling into question the usefulness of many college degrees. Purdue's acquisition of Kaplan seeks to address all of these issues in one fell swoop.

To remain relevant, the University of Minnesota should consider responding in kind. With Harvard, MIT, Stanford and now Purdue making high-quality, affordable online education available to millions of people at a fraction of the cost of today's traditional bachelor's degree, is it reasonable to think any institution can continue to raise prices faster than inflation in perpetuity?

Lest you think seismic change can't happen quickly, consider the following. If online learning disrupts higher education at a rate comparable to what the internet did to the newspaper industry, then within the next 10 years the revenue of universities and colleges will plummet 50 percent; 700 institutions will be forced to shutter their doors; and layoffs among professors and administrators will exceed 30 percent. It is not a pleasant scenario.

However, there is a more optimistic scenario, but it will require bold visionary leadership. The University of Minnesota, with considerable assistance from the Minnesota Legislature, could go head-to-head with Purdue by partnering with or acquiring an online institution similar to Kaplan, for example, Minneapolis-based Capella University.

The benefits are significant. In one stroke, the University of Minnesota could expose its brand — and the state of Minnesota — to millions of people around the world. In exchange, the 3Ms, Cargills and Medtronics of the region may be able to more readily attract the global talent necessary to remain relevant in the 21st century.

Second, the university could leverage new educational tools, including augmented reality, virtual reality and 5G wireless mobility that already are being harnessed by innovative online educators to deliver more personalized, meaningful and immersive educational experiences than traditional institutions.

Third, the U could rapidly become a provider of "micro-degree" credentials in emerging fields such as data analytics, artificial intelligence and the Blockchain (a platform for digital assets). And by fending off competition from new online workplace educational providers such as Udacity, EdX and Coursera, the micro-degrees will assist smaller, midsize Minnesota businesses and institutions in upgrading their workforces with the skills necessary to stay relevant in today's rapidly changing world. They also would remain competitive with the likes of Georgia Tech, which is already offering an online master's degree in computer science for $7,000.

The final and most exciting benefit is that the university could leverage online education to serve all of the citizens of Minnesota. The platform could be harnessed to help close the state's shameful achievement gap among minority students; it could be used to offer freshman year online for free to every citizen of Minnesota who qualifies — similar to what Arizona State University currently has in place; or it could even be used to retrain older citizens whose jobs and livelihoods will be rendered obsolete by coming technological advancements (e.g., truck drivers displaced by autonomous vehicles or radiologists made redundant by artificial intelligence).

In short, a strong online presence could make accessing lifelong learning a real possibility for every Minnesotan. The plan is not without risk, but maintaining the status quo also contains significant risk.

The choice before Minnesota is akin to the words of the great economist John Maynard Keynes. He said: "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally rather than to succeed unconventionally."

What will Minnesota choose? Should we do nothing and fail conventionally, or take a chance and risk succeeding unconventionally?

Jack Uldrich is a leading futurist and the author of "Foresight 20/20: A Futurist Explores the Trends Transforming Tomorrow." He formerly served as the director of the Office of Strategic Planning for the state of Minnesota.