Why Virginia can win the national championship

April 2, 2019 at 1:41PM
Virginia's De'Andre Hunter dribbles during the second half of the men's NCAA Tournament college basketball South Regional final game against Purdue, Saturday, March 30, 2019, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
De’Andre Hunter (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The Virginia Cavaliers are the only No. 1 seed in the Final Four and perhaps the most well-rounded team left.

The Cavs can win low-scoring games, and as they proved in the South Region final, they can win shootouts, too.

Virginia ranks No. 1 in KenPom's overall rankings, No. 2 in adjusted offense efficiency and No. 5 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

In layman's terms: The Cavs are good in all areas.

Virginia leads the nation in fewest points allowed per game at 55.4. On offense, the Cavs prefer a slower pace that puts a premium on shot selection and taking care of the ball. They rank No. 1 in Division I in fewest turnovers per game (9.0), seventh in three-point shooting (39.4 percent) and sixth in fewest fouls per game (14.6). The Cavs don't beat themselves with wasted possessions, sloppy defense or reckless play.

They have two capable shooters and scorers in the backcourt in Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome, one of the most versatile players in college basketball in wing De'Andre Hunter, and quality size in the post with Mamadi Diakite and Jack Salt.

Guy, a third-team All-America, broke out of his shooting slump in an 80-75 overtime win over Purdue in the regional final. He had made only three of his 26 three-point attempts in three tournament games before Saturday, going 8-for-38 overall from the field. He found his touch against Purdue, making five of eight threes in the second half to finish with 25 points.

If Guy stays hot, the Cavs are difficult to defend because they have other scorers who will make teams pay for helping on Guy.

Virginia pulled a lot of pressure off its shoulders after finally making a Final Four again following previous flameouts. The Cavs are free of that narrative. They are talented enough to win two more games.

about the writer

about the writer

Chip Scoggins

Columnist

Chip Scoggins is a sports columnist and enterprise writer for the Star Tribune. He has worked at the Star Tribune since 2000 and previously covered the Vikings, Gophers football, Wild, Wolves and high school sports.

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