4th of July Atmospheric Fireworks

Unfortunately, picnics and festivities might be impacted by atmospheric fireworks throughout the day today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has parts of the state under a risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary concerns. Keep an eye on the sky and have a plan b just in case you get chased indoors today. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

July 4, 2023 at 3:30AM

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For 4th of July

The 4th of July weather outlook in the Twin Cities looks unsettled with spotty showers and storms rumbling through during the day. If you have afternoon/evening BBQ or picnic plans, keep an eye on the sky and have a plan b in case you get chased indoors for a bit.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For 4th of July (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Severe Threat on Tuesday

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday across parts of Minnesota and into Wisconsin. This is a level 2 out of 5 on the severe scale with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threat. There could also be very heavy rainfall with some of the storms.

Severe Weather Outlook For Tuesday (NOAA SPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Simulated Radar

The simulated radar from AM Tuesday to PM Wednesday shows unsettled weather moving through the region during much of the day Tuesday. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. A few lingering showers will be possible into early Wednesday, but things should improve during the day Wednesday with cooler temps.

Simulated Radar From AM Tuesday to PM Wednesday (COD Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Potential

Here's the precipitation outlook through Thursday, which shows pockets of heavy rainfall in spots across Minnesota and Wisconsin. It'll be a little soggy through early Wednesday before cooler and quieter weather settles in.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's NDFD/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

It has been an extremely dry stretch of weather across much of the station over the last several weeks. Only a few locations have seen decent pockets of rain, but the drought is expanding. Severe drought conditions have popped up across parts of central Minnesota with moderate drought now in place across parts of the Twin Cities.

US Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

60 Day Precipitation Anomaly

The map below shows the 60 day precipitation anomaly, which indicates that some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -6.00" below average (in red) since mid May. This is where drought conditions are expanding.

60 Day Precipitation Anomaly (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, July 4th shows another warm day with highs approaching 90F. It'll also be an unsettled day with waves of showers and storms possible, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The hourly temps through the day Tuesday shows temps in the lower 70s in the morning with highs warming to near 90F by the afternoon. Southwesterly winds will be a little breezy with gusts around 20mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Tuesday

Temps across the region on Tuesday will warm into 70s and 80s across the state with warmer conditions still in place across far southeastern Minnesota and into Wisconsin. Scattered showers and storms will be possible, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temperatures for the Twin Cities will continue to remain above average through Tuesday with readings warming to near 90F. After scattered showers and storms on Tuesday, temps will dip into the 70s Wednesday and Thursday, which will be cooler than average for this time of the year.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Stickier Dewpoints Linger Early This Week

Dewpoints will remain sticky through Wednesday with readings in the mid 60s. However, it'll be quite a bit more comfortable during the 2nd half of the week with readings back into the 50s.

Daily Dewpoint Forecast For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities will be unsettled on the 4th of July with lingering t-showers early Wednesday. It'll be cooler and more comfortable through the 2nd half of the week. Another storm system will move in next weekend with another chance of showers and storms.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be above average once again on Tuesday. It'll be cooler than average during the 2nd half of the week with readings in the 70s. It'll gradually get warmer into the weekend and next week with temps warming into the 80s.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions in the Midwest will be a little unsettled through Midweek before cooler and quieter weather moves in through the end of the week. Another storm system arrives into the weekend with another chance of rain and rumbles.

National Weather Outlook Through The Upcoming Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures across the Southern US, while cooler temps develop across parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and even parts of the Midwest.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across parts of the northern tier of the nation, especially from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Drier weather will continue in the Southwestern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

4th of July Atmospheric Fireworks
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Hey, it's our nation's 248th Birthday today and why not celebrate with hot dogs! According to Wallet Hub, Americans will consume nearly 150 million Franks today. Unreal!

One of the most famous hot dog eaters is none other than Joey "Jaws" Chestnut, who will defend his 15th Nathan's Championship Title on Coney Island today. Last year he ate 63 and still holds the world record for eating 76 hotdogs in 10 minutes in 2021. BURP!

Unfortunately, picnics and festivities might be impacted by atmospheric fireworks throughout the day today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has parts of the state under a risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary concerns. Keep an eye on the sky and have a plan b just in case you get chased indoors today.

Showers and storms linger into the early part of the day tomorrow with highs dipping into the 70s. Comfortable weather sticks around Thursday and Friday before unsettled weather returns this weekend.

Have a fun& safe 4th Everyone. Don't forget the ketchup!

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Scattered strong storms. Winds: WSW 8-13. High 90.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and storms. Winds: WNW 5-10. Low: 65.

WEDNESDAY: Lingering t-showers early. Cooler. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 77.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and comfy. Winds: WSW 5-10. Wake-up: 57. High 78.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day t-storm. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 59. High 82.

SATURDAY: Aggravated Skies. Showers and storms. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up. 65. High: 80.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with more t-showers. Winds: SSE 7-12. Wake-up: 63. High: 82.

MONDAY: Still unsettled. Lingering storms. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 66. High: 82.

This Day in Weather History

July 4th

1999: Severe winds knock down millions of trees in the BWCA, injuring 19 people.

1962: An extremely heavy downpour falls at Jackson, dumping 7.5 inches of rain in two hours.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

July 4th

Average High: 90F (Record: 101F set in 2012)

Average Low: 65F (Record: 43F set in 1972)

Record Rainfall: 2.27" set in 1900

Record Snowfall: NONE

Twin Cities Almanac For July 4th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

July 4th

Sunrise: 5:32m

Sunset: 9:02pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 29 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 54 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 7 minutes

Moon Phase for July 4th at Midnight

1.8 Days After Full "Buck" Moon

July 3 at 6:39 a.m. CDT - The Full Buck Moon, when the new antlers of buck deer push out from their foreheads in coatings of velvety fur. It was also often called the Full Thunder Moon, thunderstorms being now most frequent. Sometimes also called the Full Hay Moon.

Moon Phase For July 1st at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Tuesday

Temperatures on Tuesday will be well above average across the Midwest and Northwestern US. Extreme heat will continue across parts of the Western and Southwestern US.

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday will be a little unsettled across parts of the Central and Eastern US. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

National Weather Map For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Wednesday shows unsettled weather across parts of the Central and Eastern US with strong to severe storms possible. There could also be locally heavy rainfall and isolated flood concerns.

Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across parts of the Central US, from the Central Plains to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley and into the Northern New England States. Meanwhile, the Western US will be hot and dry into next week.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"How The Human Body Could Adapt To The Extreme Heat Of Climate Change"

"Between 1980 and 1986, nearly 7,000 cases of heatstroke and 40,000 cases of heat exhaustion occurred during the Hajj, the pilgrimage Muslims make to Mecca. "In 1986 alone, there were hundreds of deaths," recalls Abderrezak Bouchama, who was there that year as an emergency care doctor. "I then became interested in heat stroke, which had not been covered during my studies in Paris," Bouchama said, who is now Director of the Department of Experimental Medicine at the King Abdullah International Research Center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. His research into the genes associated with severe forms of heatstroke could, along with other research being carried out around the world, help to answer a vital human question: will our bodies be able to adapt to the devastating effects of global warming? The world is already experiencing the hottest June on record. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) estimates that by the end of this century, in India alone, around 2% of the population will be exposed to temperatures reaching 35 degrees WBT (wet bulb temperature)."

"Airlines Are Blaming Weather For Flight Cancelations, But That's Not Entirely True"

"America is in its third day of intense flight cancellations and delays sweeping the nation—with United Airlines being the hardest hit. While it's true, intense storms did hit the east coast, rain and wind doesn't explain day three of delayed or cancelled flights. These cancelations are, in fact, quite predictable. Everyone from Airplane manufacturers, the Federal Aviation Administration and unions representing pilots and flight attendants have been ringing the alarm bells ever since airline travel began to pick up following the easing of COVID-19 lockdowns: There just aren't enough bodies to keep planes in the air and on time."

"Houston 'heat dome' blazes as one the hottest cities in U.S. this week, with 5 Texas towns topping list"

"Texas wins this week with three cities earning top slots on a list of the hottest cities in the U.S. for July 27. According toThe Washington Post, Dallas was the No. 1 most hottest city for the day, followed by Fort Worth and Austin. San Antonio and Houston came in on the list at No. 5 and No. 6. Perhaps it's no coincidence that all five of those cities also have their own local CultureMap bureaus? #hot #buzzy Wednesday, June 28 is expected to get even hotter. The National Weather Service issued an excessive heat advisory for Dallas, Collin, Denton, and Tarrant counties, though 8 pm Wednesday. Dallas is supposed to reach 107 degrees, with a heat index of 115 degrees. As Ben Noll, a meteorologist with New Zealand's National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, tweeted, Texas will be hotter on June 28 than 99 percent of the rest of the world, including the Sahara Desert and the Persian Gulf."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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