6 in 10 Minnesotans have had COVID-19

If most people around you seem to have personal experience with COVID-19, it's not your imagination. More than half of Americans and three-fourths of kids already had a bout with the virus by late February, according to estimates the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Tuesday.

In Minnesota, nearly 61% of people have been infected, meaning an estimated COVID-19 count of 3.3 million — more than double the 1.4 million infections verified through testing.

The estimates, based on a re-examination of blood drawn for medical tests since early September, show the sweeping impact of the pandemic as Minnesota and other areas of the country face another round of rising viral activity.

CDC leaders said they expected the data to confirm high COVID-19 levels after the omicron wave this winter but not a 57% overall U.S. positivity rate, and a 75% rate in children through age 11. Dr. Kristie Clarke, leader of the CDC's COVID-19 seroprevalence research, cautioned that the surprising estimates aren't an indication of protection levels or herd immunity.

"Protection from vaccination and protection from previous infection do wane over time," she said. "There's also no known threshold of the population where, once we get above X percentage, we will completely stop transmission of SARS-CoV-2."

The tests found the presence of antibodies in blood specimens, indicating that people had coronavirus infections in the last year or two. Eventually, the CDC wants to switch to tests that show antibody amounts that indicate whether people still have immunity. Lower vaccination rates than adults and more social interaction at school and other locations likely explain the higher seroprevalence rates in children, Clarke said.

Minnesota on Tuesday reported another 2,563 infections identified over the weekend, and an increase from 398 new infections per day in the week ending April 1 to more than 947 infections in the week ending Friday.

Jesse Vavreck thought he just had allergies over Easter weekend, even though his 2-year-old daughter was running a fever, but took a home test that was negative. By the middle of last week, the Vavreck family of four was sick and bedridden at home in Plymouth. His wife tested positive. The 2-year-old's fever spiked above 104 degrees while Vavreck's 4-year-old daughter was panting in rapid, shallow breaths.

"Scary is putting it lightly," a recovering Vavreck said on Tuesday between coughs. "We were up every three hours even through the night trying to keep their temperatures down, because there really wasn't much more we could do."

The infections emerged the same week the daughters' child care in a Wayzata elementary school lifted a mask mandate for preschoolers. Other families with children in the preschool got sick as well, and Vavreck said he is worried apathy is going to result in more infections among children and adults in Minnesota.

"The situation we just went through is going to be a lot more common pretty quick here," said Vavreck, who was fully vaccinated along with his wife.

The silver lining in the latest COVID-19 data is the rise in infections hasn't resulted in exponential growth of hospitalizations and deaths, said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, CDC director.

"We're seeing less oxygen use, less ICU stays, and we haven't fortunately seen any increase in deaths associated with them," she said. "So we are hopeful that positive trends will continue, that we will not see as a result of these increased cases any further severity of disease."

COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota increased from 183 on April 10 to 255 on Monday, but the latest total included only 20 people needing intensive care. That 8% ICU usage rate is Minnesota's lowest in the pandemic, suggesting the latest version of the virus is weaker or that treatments and immunity levels are stronger.

Minnesota on Tuesday reported one COVID-19 death, bringing its total for the pandemic to 12,494.

Walensky said the declining severity likely reflects high immunity levels as a result of recent vaccinations and infections. However, she cautioned that the seroprevalence data only estimate how many people had COVID-19, not how many people have immunity. Seroprevalence estimates have other limitations, including that they are based only on people who recently sought medical care and had blood drawn for lab tests.

Walensky also urged caution because the original omicron coronavirus variant was milder, but spread so quickly it ended up placing enormous strain on hospitals. Communities should follow CDC guidance that triggers indoor mask-wearing recommendations when infection and hospital rates rise into a high-risk range, she said.

Most Minnesota counties were in the low-risk range late last week, but Olmsted and Mahnomen counties moved up to the moderate range.