A Few Badly Needed PM Showers Today

We may salvage a little hazy sun this morning, but a southbound cool front sparks a few midday and afternoon showers, even a clap of thunder. Once again the atmosphere will NOT be ripe for hail or high winds. It's been a supernaturally quiet spring for severe weather across the Upper Midwest. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

June 10, 2023 at 2:30AM
Tiny Pepper (@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"How to Use the Air Quality Index"

"Wildfire smoke from Canada is causing poor air quality along the East Coast. Here's what those air quality alerts mean. Smoke from wildfires in eastern Canada is flowing across the U.S. East Coast, triggering air quality alerts in the "hazardous" category in some areas. But what do those air quality alerts mean? The color-coded Air Quality Index categories you'll find on the Environmental Protection Agency's AirNow website rank air quality on a 500-point scale and are meant to give the public an easy way to understand the health effects of the air around them daily. The lowest numbers on the scale indicate healthy air, and the high end is hazardous. The Air Quality Index considers five measurements of air pollution: ground-level ozone, particle pollution, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. These pollutants have health impacts, typically involving irritation and inflammation of the respiratory system, which can, in turn, contribute to the development of conditions such as asthma and heart disease."

Air Quality Index (Air Now/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook This Weekend

Weather conditions in the Twin Cities this weekend don't look to be all that bad, but there may be a few detours that we'll encounter. Spotty showers and storms will be possible on Saturday, but it won't be a washout. Sunday will be the drier and cooler day of the weekend with gusty NE winds around 20mph to 30mph.

Weather Outlook This Weekend (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook Through Midday Sunday

Here's the Weather outlook through Midday Sunday, which shows spotty showers and storms developing across the Region on Saturday. The best chance of storms will be across the southern half of Minnesota and especially later in the day with pockets of locally heavy rain.

Weather Outlook Through Midday Sunday (COD Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation forecast through the next week shows pockets of heavier rain possible with some of the thunderstorms through PM Saturday. The heaviest rains will be found south of the Twin Cities and especially south of the Minnesota River Valley.

Extended Precipitation Outlook Through Early Next Week (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday, June 10th show dry conditions in the morning, but a few isolated thunderstorms will pop up around midday and into the afternoon. Once the front swings through, winds will turn over to the north and become a bit breezy.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The hourly temps through the day Saturday show temps starting in the mid/upper 60s in the morning with highs warming into the upper 70s to near 80F by the afternoon. We'll see dry conditions in the morning with a few spotty t-showers developing around midday and drifting south through the afternoon/evening hours. Winds will turn more northerly as the front drifts south through the day. Wind gusts by the afternoon could approach 20mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Saturday

Here's the weather outlook across the region for Saturday. High temps will generally warm into the 70s across the state, which will be pretty close to average for this time of the year. Spotty showers and storms will also develop across the southern half of the state as we head through the 2nd half of the day.

Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temperatures over the next few days will be a little cooler than it has been with readings falling into the 70s Sunday and Monday. The cooler weather won't last long as readings warm back to well above average levels into next week.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Lower Dewpoints Sunday and Monday

It'll be a little sticky on Saturday with a chance of thunderstorms through the afternoon. However, a cool front will push south of the region allowing cooler and lower humidity Sunday and Monday.

Daily Max Dewpoints For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities looks cooler through early next week before hotter and more humid weather returns by the middle part of next week.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Preadictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows slightly cooler readings through the weekend. However, very summer-like readings return as we head into mid-month.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

A bigger storm system will develop in the Central US over the weekend with strong to severe thunderstorms possible across the Southern US with locally heavy rain. After a few storms in the Midwest on Saturday, cooler and quieter weather moves in through early next week.

National Weather Outlook Through Next Week (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures settling in across much of the Central US, including the Midwest, while cooler than average temps will settle in across the Western US.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across the Central and Western US as we head into mid-month.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

A Few Badly Needed PM Showers Today
By Paul Douglas

12 summer weekends, all uniquely precious. In non-drought years many Minnesotans feel cheated when it rains on their weekend plans. "Paul, how could you let this happen?" My bad. It must be my faulty Doppler.

With moderate drought into central Minnesota and much of the metro area it's no longer a "risk of showers" but an "opportunity for puddles" if anyone asks.

We may salvage a little hazy sun this morning, but a southbound cool front sparks a few midday and afternoon showers, even a clap of thunder. Once again the atmosphere will NOT be ripe for hail or high winds. It's been a supernaturally quiet spring for severe weather across the Upper Midwest.

Sunday will be sunny and cooler, with a stiff breeze and a healthy walleye chop on your favorite lake. Expect a touch of mid-September with 70F at MSP, but temperatures holding in the 60s across the rest of Minnesota. A comfortable 70-something Monday, then more 80s by the middle of next week. Until further notice, no whining about weekend showers OK?

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: PM showers, T-storm. Winds: N 10-15. High: 80.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Isolated storms. Winds: NE 10-15. Low: 57.

SUNDAY: Sunny, windy and cooler. Winds: NE 15-25. High: 71.

MONDAY: Morning sun, afternoon clouds. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 58. High: 76.

TUESDAY: Hazy-blue sky, feels like summer again. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up. 63. High: 86.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, isolated T-storm. Winds: N 3-8. Wake-up: 65. High 87.

THURSDAY: Cooler with plenty of sun. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 63. High 79.

FRIDAY: Mix of clouds and sun Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 59. High 77.

This Day in Weather History

June 10th

1926: An intense downpour falls on Mahoning. 3.05 inches fell in 45 minutes.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

June 10th

Average High: 78F (Record: 99F set in 1956)

Average Low: 59F (Record: 40F set in 1877)

Record Rainfall: 1.77" set in 1874

Record Snowfall: NONE

Twin Cities Almanac For June 10th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

June 10th

Sunrise: 5:26am

Sunset: 8:58pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 31 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +49 Seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 hour & 45 minutes

Moon Phase for June 10th at Midnight

0.5 Days After Last Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For June 10th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Saturday

Temperatures on Saturday will be very mild across the Central US with showers and storms in the southern US. Cooler temps will linger across parts of the Western US with 60s in place along the California Coast.

National Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Saturday

The weather outlook on Saturday will be unsettled in spots across the Central US. Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop in the Southern US with gusty winds and hail as the primary threats.

National Weather Map For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Sunday shows unsettled weather developing across the Central US with strong to severe thunderstorms likely in the Southern US. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and large hail along with locally heavy rainfall.

Weather Outlook Through Sunday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation developing from parts of the Western US into the Central US and in the Eastern US. Some of the heaviest rain will be found closer to the Tennessee River Valley with several inches of rain possible there through next week.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Arctic Sea Ice Is Melting Way Faster Than Previously Thought, Study Finds"

"The Arctic Circle could lose its summer sea ice a whole decade earlier than previously projected by scientists. It's yet another sign that the climate crisis is affecting our global systems faster than researchers had understood before. In a new study published in the journal Nature Communications, researchers outlined how the Arctic could experience rapid sea ice loss as early as the 2030s. It's a decade earlier than a 2021 UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which predicted that the region would lose its sea ice by the middle of this century, researchers wrote. And even if world leaders create policies that successfully lower earth-warming global emissions, the Arctic would still lose September sea ice by the 2050s, the study explained."

"Ocean Currents Are Slowing, With Potentially Devastating Effects"

"IN THE CRUSHING, cold depths of the oceans, something unimaginably huge flows inexorably, barely a few centimeters per second, along a path it has traveled for millennia. Dense, dark rivers of water toil ceaselessly around the world, making up around 40 percent of the total volume of the deep oceans. They are gigantic conveyor belts transporting heat, oxygen, carbon, and nutrients around the planet, and shaping climate and weather at a global, regional, and local scale. But something has changed, and these rivers appear to be slowing down. Unsurprisingly, climate change is likely to blame. The sting in the tail is that the slowing of this abyssal machinery could actually speed up climate change, while also reducing the productivity of fisheries upon which so many organisms—including humans—depend for food."

"Greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high and Earth is warming faster than ever – report"

"Greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, with yearly emissions equivalent to 54 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. Humanity has caused surface temperatures to warm by 1.14°C since the late 1800s – and this warming is increasing at an unprecedented rate of over 0.2°C per decade. The highest temperatures recorded over land (what climate scientists refer to as maximum land surface temperatures) are increasing twice as fast. And it's these temperatures that are most relevant to the record heat people feel or whether wildfires spawn. These changes mean that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C – the amount of carbon dioxide global society can still emit and keep a 50% chance of holding temperature rise to 1.5°C – is now only around 250 billion tonnes. At current emission levels, this will run out in less than six years."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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