A Handsome Halloween. Record Warmth Wednesday

We've got a very handsome Halloween shaping up this year. In fact, it could be the warmest since 2000. Sunshine and September-like warmth settles in over the next few days with records possible Wednesday. November rumbles may develop late Thursday... What month is it again? Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

October 31, 2022 at 2:28AM
1991 Halloween Blizzard (Star Tribune/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"25 photos that perfectly capture the Halloween blizzard of 1991"

"Whether you lived through it or have only heard the stories, the Halloween blizzard of 1991 was truly something to remember."

1991 Halloween Blizzard (Rick Sennott - Star Tribune/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Todd Nelson - 1991 Halloween Cow

During the Halloween Blizzard of 1991, I was a cow. I know, very masculine, but my mom made me the costume, so how could I say no? At any rate, not my best look, but I still remember it to this day because the weather was so crazy. What a ridiculous snout.

1991 Halloween Cow (@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Remembering the 1991 Halloween Blizzard

"Even many years later, the Halloween Blizzard of 1991 remains one of Minnesota's signature extreme weather events, and stands as a benchmark against which other winter storms are compared. An odd combination of extreme intensity, duration, and timing—it was unusually early in the season, especially given its ferocity—make this one of the state's great historical blizzards. With its scenes of stranded cars, pumpkins buried in snow drifts, and abandoned roads, those who experienced the Halloween Blizzard in 1991 won't soon forget it. The storm, like many significant moments in history, is one that people remember vividly, with adults and children alike at the time recalling where they were and what they were doing. Referred to as the "Mega Storm" and the "Storm of the Century" at the time, this exceptional storm came as Minnesotans were still celebrating the Minnesota Twins second World Series win in just four years. After a spell of warm and pleasant weather, a cold front ushered in unseasonably cold air. The high temperature in the Twin Cities was 65 degrees on the 29th, over ten degrees above normal. On October 30th, the high temperature in the Twin Cities only reached 32 degrees."

Twin Cities Halloween Blizzard Records (National Weather Service/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Halloween Blizzard Snow (National Weather Service/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Trick of Treat Forecast For Minneapolis

Hey Trick or Treaters, here's the weather forecast for Monday evening. It'll be a dry night with fall through the 50s after 6pm. This could be the warmest Halloween since 2000 and certainly no Halloween Blizzards this year.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Halloween Evening (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Halloween Monday Forecast

Weather conditions on Monday will be quite mild with temps running nearly 10F to 20F above average for Halloween. Note that this could be the warmest Halloween since 2000.

Weather Outlook For Halloween Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"The U.S. Is in for Another Super-Dry Winter"

"The latest forecast from NOAA says that La Niña will make for a dry winter—a sign that we can expect another year of drought. Don't expect much relief from the ongoing drought out West this coming winter. La Niña is returning for its third consecutive year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced this week. This means that Western states will continue to see drier-than-average conditions this winter. "Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter," said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast."

U.S. Drought Outlook For Winter 2022-2023 (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Record Warmth on Wednesday?

Temperatures on Wednesday could reach record levels for some with highs warming into the 60s and 70s. Note the record high in the Twin Cities is 72F and the forecast is in the lower 70s. Brainerd could see a record high with temps warming into the mid 60s.

Highs vs Record Highs on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Near Record Warmth This Week

Here's a look at the high temps through the week ahead with near record warmth on Wednesday

Highs vs Record Highs For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average This October

It's been a dry October with many locations nearly 1" to 2" below average for the month of October. The Twin Cities is now more than 2" below average, which is the 7th driest October on record to date. However, with no more rain in the forecast through Monday, it appears that this October will be the 6th driest October on record in the Twin Cities.

October Precipitation Departure From Average (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall

If you look at the precipitation deficit for the season (since September 1st) the deficit is even greater. Many locations are well below average with the Twin Cities approaching 5" below average since September 1st, which will likely wind up being the 2nd driest 2 months of Fall on record at the MSP Airport.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since September 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st

The Twin Cities is now approaching 10" below average for the year, which through the end of October on Monday will be the 16th driest start to any year on record (through October 31st). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.50" above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.

MN Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Fall Color Update

And going going gone... That's basically it for the fall color season. Sure, there's a little bit of color here and there, but accord to the MN DNR, we are past peak color across the state and will have to wait until next fall for more.

See more from the MN DNR HERE & Travel Wisconsin HERE:

MN Fall Color Update (MN DNR Update/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Astonishingly Dry Stretch Continues

The weather outlook through the week ahead, which shows dry weather through midweek with rain and snow possible late week. There could also be a little more rain and snow close to home late weekend. Stay tuned...

Weather Outlook Through Next Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation potential over the next several days doesn't show much in the way of heavy precipitation. We'll likely stay dry through about Wednesday or Thursday of next week, but there could be some precipitation potential late in the week with rain and snow possible.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook Monday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Monday shows very quiet weather in place for the 2nd to last day of October. Mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s, will be well above average for this time of the year. Our splendid weather continues into late fall.

Weather Outlook For Minneapolis on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Monday shows temps starting around 40F in the morning and warming into mid 60s by the afternoon. We'll have dry and sunny skies with winds out of the WSW through the day.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next 5 days shows temps warming into the 60s and 70s over the next several days, which will be nearly 15F to 25F above average. Highs on Wednesday could reach record levels with readings in the mid 70s.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows well above average temperatures continuing through the first few days of November. There could be some weather blowing through late next week with some rain and snow potential across parts of the state. Stay tuned...

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps in place across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Meanwhile, cooler than average temps will be in place across the West Coast, the Pacific Northwest and into the High Plains.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather setting up from the Western US to the Midwest with drier weather in the Southern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

A Handsome Halloween. Record Warmth Wednesday
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

I was a proud 9 year old and somewhat embarrassed by the cow costume my mom made me on Halloween 1991. It was a white jumpsuit with black spots (thankfully no udder) and a plush mask with cow horns and a ridiculous snout. Needless to say, I was a little bitter that I wasn't a vampire or ninja turtle and even more so now when Halloween rolls around, my 1991 Halloween Blizzard cow costume resurfaces.

Interestingly, this storm was induced by the "Perfect Storm" that set up along the Northeast Coast. Some may remember this being depicted in a movie featuring George Clooney and the Andrea Gail. The Perfect Storm allowed the 1991 Halloween Blizzard to unfold as it stalled over us for 3 days, dumping 28.4 inches of snow in the Twin Cities and 36.9 in Duluth. Unreal!

We've got a very handsome Halloween shaping up this year. In fact, it could be the warmest since 2000. Sunshine and September-like warmth settles in over the next few days with records possible Wednesday. November rumbles may develop late Thursday... What month is it again?

Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Warm & Werewolf Warnings. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 66.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: SSW 5. Low: 43.

TUESDAY: What November? Feels Like September! Winds: SSE 7-12. High: 70.

WEDNESDAY: Breezy With Near Record Warmth. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 53. High: 73.

THURSDAY: More clouds. Showers develop late. Winds: SSW 10-15. Wake-up: 57. High: 67.

FRIDAY: Cooler with lingering clouds & showers. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 42. High: 49.

SATURDAY: Decreasing clouds. A few drips? Winds: SSW 5-10. Wake-up: 36. High: 55.

SUNDAY: Increasing rain chances late. Winds: ESE 10-15. Wake-up: 42. High: 33.

This Day in Weather History

October 31st

1991: The Great Halloween Blizzard begins. Trick or Treating was memorable for the few who ventured out. 8.2 inches of snow fell at MSP airport by midnight, with much more to come the following day.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

October 31st

Average High: 50F (Record: 83F set in 1950)

Average Low: 35F (Record: 15F set in 1878)

Record Rainfall: 0.85" set in 1991

Record Snowfall: 8.2" set in 1991

Twin Cities Almanac For October 31st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

October 31st

Sunrise: 7:50am

Sunset: 6:02pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 12 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 48 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 hour & 27 minutes

Moon Phase for October 31st at Midnight

0.0 Days Since First Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For October 31st at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Monday

The weather outlook on Monday shows well above average temps continuing to the Upper Midwest with temps running nearly 10F to 15F above average!

National Weather Outlook For Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Monday

A slow moving storm system will bring scattered storms to the Southeastern US. Meanwhile, areas of rain and snow will be found in the Northwest

National Weather Map For Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Tuesday shows an area of low pressure sliding through the Eastern US with areas of rain and thunder. Meanwhile another storm system will develop in the Pacific Northwest.

Weather Outlook Through Tuesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will continue in the Central and Southern US with the heaviest in the Pacific Northwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

Here's the extended snowfall outlook, which shows heavy snow potential in the mountains across the Western US. It's too early to tell, but parts of the High Plains and Midwest could get in on some snow late next week as well. Stay tuned...

Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"How sea level rise contributes to billions in extra damage during hurricanes"

"When Hurricane Ian barreled into the coast of southwest Florida on Sept. 28, the mighty hurricane's 150-mph winds drove a massive and destructive storm surge inland. A preliminary estimate from NOAA puts Ian's damage at more than $50 billion, and damage estimates from some private insurers approach or exceed $100 billion. It's likely that tens of billions of this damage was caused by a catastrophic storm surge of 10 – 15 feet, which leveled countless structures on the low-lying barrier islands just south of where Ian's eye came ashore. Had Ian hit a century ago, when sea levels were about a foot lower, the storm probably would have caused billions less in storm surge damage, judging by the results from two studies looking at storm surge damage from 2012's Hurricane Sandy in New York. Taken together, the study results suggest that rising seas left a huge portion of U.S. coastal infrastructure – much of it built during the 20th century – vulnerable to storm surges."

"What all cities can learn from New Jersey 10 years after Hurricane Sandy"

"I'm standing on a patchwork of herringbone-patterned pavers in the middle of a park. As far as moments go, it's a pretty uneventful one, but if I were made of raindrops coming down in heaps, I would be trickling down in between those pavers, draining through a bed of gravel, and slowly seeping into the soil below. These pavers make up the floor of a one-acre park called Southwest Resiliency Park, located in the low-lying City of Hoboken, New Jersey. On a regular day, much like the day I'm visiting, the park looks like a typical public space with shaded benches, a lawn, and a busy dog run. But when the skies rip open above it, the park turns into a precious flood-management tool thanks to permeable pavers, rain gardens, a cistern for rainwater harvesting, and an underground detention system that can hold 200,000 gallons of stormwater runoff."

"5 Affordable Cities To Retire as a Snowbird"

"If you're used to riding out the cold in a northern state where the winters are long and harsh and the snowfall piles up, you might want to make a drastic change come retirement time. In other words, you may want to become a snowbird. Snowbirds are people who flee the cold, wintry season of their hometown and migrate to warmer locales in the south for those few months. While snowbirds often later become sunbirds — moving permanently to a sunnier, warmer state — in the interim, they must arrange to transition back and forth between seasons. This often means renting or buying a second home, which requires careful financial planning. To help you stay within your retirement budget, here are five affordable cities to retire as a snowbird, along with the average cost to buy a home or rent an apartment, how the cost of living compares to the national average, and what kind of weather you can expect in the winter."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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