A Mild Week - Winter Delayed Once Again
Here comes a warm front that would feel right at home in early October, with 50s into Thursday. The best chance of topping 60? Tuesday and Thursday; 20F warmer than average. Wow. No big storms of any flavor in sight - I see a little rain Thanksgiving Week. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
The extended precipitation outlook through the weekend shows very minimal precipitation. Much of the region will stay dry with only a few hundredths possible north and east of the metro.
Precipitation Over The Last 60 Days
Extraordinary levels of rainfall have been witnessed in various regions of the state since September 23rd. Remarkably, specific areas in the vicinity of the Twin Cities, delineated in white and blue, have received nearly 10 inches or more of precipitation in just over a month.
60 Day Precipitation Anomaly
Thanks to some recent heavy rains parts of the state are now in a surplus over the last 60 days. Some of the biggest surpluses are showing up in blue in pockets across parts of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities and into western Wisconsin. It has been a very soggy last 7 weeks.
Drought Update
Recent heavy rains since late September have helped the drought situation quite a bit in across the state. With that being said, nearly 18% of the state is still in a severe drought, which has improved from 34% nearly 3 months ago.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, November 12th will be nearly +10F above average for this time of the year. WSW winds will be breezy during the afternoon with gusts approaching 25mph at times.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in Minneapolis will start in the upper 30s in the morning and will warm into the mid 50s by the afternoon. Skies will remain dry and sunny with gusty WSW winds around 20mph to 25mph at times.
Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook for Sunday will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for this time of the year with mostly dry and sunny weather in place. There could be a few light rain/snow showers across the far northern reaches of the state.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows mild temperatures returning later this weekend and into the week ahead with highs warming into the 50s and 60s, which will be nearly +10F to +20F above average for this time of the year.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows another warm spell with highs warming into the 50s and 60s through much of the week ahead. We will also be mostly dry with a bit of a cool down late next week.
The Extended Outlook Calls For Warmer Temps
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will be quite a bit warmer than average as we continue through the middle part of the month. Readings could warm into the mid/upper 50s and low 60s, which will be well above average for that time of the year. Overnight lows could be in the 30s and 40s, which is above average for this time of the year.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Winding Down
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. November is typically a very quiet month, but there can still be storms. In fact, last year, Hurricane Nicole made landfall along the east coast of Florida.
Weather Outlook
Weather conditions across the Central US will be fairly quiet over the next several days with mostly dry weather in place through much of next week.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across the eastern half of the nation, especially east of the Mississippi River.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather in place across much of the Central US as we approach the middle part of the month and beyond.
A Mild Week - Winter Delayed Once Again
By Paul Douglas
We probably won't be playing much pond hockey this month. Once again winter has been delayed, a temporary reprieve from an inevitable artillery barrage of arctic fronts and sloppy snowstorms. With a jumbo El Nino I expect fewer subzero jabs and probably less snow overall; maybe half the 90" that fell last winter.
We shouldn't be too surprised. According to Climate Central, winter is the fastest warming season in Minnesota, Wisconsin and 36 other states - the result of a warming climate, mostly due to the burning of fossil fuels. Since 1970 winter temperatures have risen roughly 5F, and the cold fronts aren't as bitter. A silver lining for many of us.
Here comes a warm front that would feel right at home in early October, with 50s into Thursday. The best chance of topping 60? Tuesday and Thursday; 20F warmer than average. Wow.
No big storms of any flavor in sight - I see a little rain Thanksgiving Week. By the way, NOAA's GFS model predicts a 47F high on Thanksgiving Day in the metro. No blizzards this year.
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Mild sunshine. Winds: SW 10-20. High 55.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: W 5-15. Low: 34.
MONDAY: Sunny and very pleasant. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 55.
TUESDAY: Blue sky with a mild breeze. Winds: SW 15-25. Wake-up: 44. High: 61.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Too nice to work much. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 41. High 58.
THURSDAY: Sunny, windy. Normal high for Oct. 8. Winds: S 15-30. Wake-up: 45. High 62.
FRIDAY: Some sun with a cooler breeze. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 38. High 48.
SATURDAY: Weather honeymoon isn't over yet. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 35. High 54.
This Day in Weather History
November 12th
2000: A winter storm system produces a narrow band of heavy snow across extreme western Minnesota. Winds toward the end of the event were clocked between 15 and 25 mph, resulting in blowing snow leading to visibilities of 1 to 1.5 miles. Some snow totals included: Canby (Yellow Medicine County) with 6.5 inches, Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) with 6.0 inches.
1940: Record low highs are set in west central Minnesota. Alexandria records a high of 8 degrees Fahrenheit, Springfield and Willmar have highs of 10 degrees, and St. Cloud and Minneapolis have highs of 11 degrees.
1933: A dust storm hits southwest Minnesota, while a blizzard rages in the northwest part of the state.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 12th
Average High: 44F (Record: 65F set in 2001)
Average Low: 29F (Record: -4F set in 1966)
Record Rainfall: 0.90" set in 1965
Record Snowfall: 8.5" set in 1940
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 12th
Sunrise: 7:06am
Sunset: 4:47pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 41 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 29 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 6 Minutes
Moon Phase for November 12th at Midnight
0.1 Days Before New Moon
National High Temps on Sunday
The weather outlook across the Central US shows warmer than average temperatures in place across the Midwest and Western US. Meanwhile, cooler temps will linger across the East Coast.
National Weather Outlook For Sunday
The National Weather Outlook on Sunday shows areas heavy rain continuing across the Coastal Bend of Texas, but much of the nation should be dry and quiet.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Monday shows areas of heavy rain continuing in the Deep South. Meanwhile, much of the rest of the nation will be quiet.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavier rain across the Southern US and decent precipitation along the West Coast. However, much of the Central and High Plains and Midwest will be fairly dry.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, areas of snow will be found across the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be some decent snowfall along the international border and just north into Canada.
Climate Stories
"US Teen Wins Top Prize For Inventing a Soap to Fight Skin Cancer"
"A 14-year-old US scientist has developed a soap that could help the body's immune system 'wash away' skin cancer. The soap has won him the top prize in the Young Scientist's Challenge, an annual competition aimed to encourage children and adolescents to innovate solutions to everyday problems. The competition is run by US-based multinational 3M Company, which is widely known for developing and patenting the N95 mask in the 1970s and 80s. Heman Bekel lived in Ethiopia for four years before his family moved to the US, and he says his memories of seeing people working all day under the hot Sun inspired his invention, which he hopes will one day be both affordable and effective. The soap delivers drugs via the skin that activate the body's immune system to fight cancer cells. If it works and is determined to be a safe treatment, it could make a big difference for those unable to afford the expensive skin cancer treatments currently available, which can cost around US$40,000."
"Acapulco was built to withstand earthquakes, but not Hurricane Otis' destructive winds – how building codes failed this resort city"
"Acapulco wasn't prepared when Hurricane Otis struck as a powerful Category 5 storm on Oct. 25, 2023. The short notice as the storm rapidly intensified over the Pacific Ocean wasn't the only problem – the Mexican resort city's buildings weren't designed to handle anything close to Otis' 165 mph winds. While Acapulco's oceanfront high-rises were built to withstand the region's powerful earthquakes, they had a weakness. Since powerful hurricanes are rare in Acapulco, Mexico's building codes didn't require that their exterior materials be able to hold up to extreme winds. In fact, those materials were often kept light to help meet earthquake building standards. Otis' powerful winds ripped off exterior cladding and shattered windows, exposing bedrooms and offices to the wind and rain. The storm took dozens of lives and caused billions of dollars in damage."
"Greenland glaciers are receding twice as fast as in the 20th century"
"Aerial photographs dating back to the second world war have shown that glaciers in Greenland are retreating twice as fast this century as they were in the 20th century. Greenland is home to 20,000 peripheral glaciers located in mountain valleys and plateaus separate from its massive ice sheet, many of which are melting even faster than the sheet itself. Glaciers worldwide are now contributing about one-fifth of sea level rise, although the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will eventually surpass them. Laura Larocca at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Colorado and her colleagues located the front edge of 821 glaciers in aerial photographs taken between 1943 and 1987. The oldest were taken by US Navy planes mapping Greenland during the second world war, when both the US and the Nazis were trying to set up bases there."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
But next week will end with comfortable 60s and 70s.