The United States passed a grim milestone Wednesday, hitting 250,000 coronavirus-related deaths, with the number expected to keep climbing steeply as infections surge nationwide.
Experts predict that the country could soon be reporting 2,000 deaths a day or more, matching or exceeding the spring peak, and that 100,000 to 200,000 more Americans could die in the coming months.
Just how bad it gets will depend on a variety of factors, including how well preventive measures are followed and when a vaccine is introduced.
"It all depends on what we do and how we address this outbreak," said Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University professor of environmental health sciences who has modeled the spread of the disease. "That is going to determine how much it runs through us."
Back in March, when the virus was still relatively new and limited mainly to a few significant pockets like New York, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease expert in the country, predicted that it might kill up to 240,000 Americans.
It has now passed that mark, with no end in sight.
Since the very beginning, preventive measures like wearing masks have been caught up in a political divide, and that remains the case today, as the Trump administration resists beginning a transition of power to President-elect Joe Biden and cooperating on a pandemic strategy.
New vaccines may begin to have an effect next year, experts said, and for now, developments in treating the disease as well as a younger population getting infected mean that far fewer people who are admitted to hospitals are dying. Infections are also being diagnosed earlier, which helps combat it.