Bethany Hway thought that she had decades of snowy winters from the past on her side.
Hway, founder of the Klondike Dog Derby in Excelsior, pored over years of snow and ice data as she and others planned this year's race around Lake Minnetonka. But on Wednesday, a month before 35 teams of mushers were scheduled to hit the course, they canceled. The day before, organizers of the John Beargrease Sled Dog Marathon in Duluth did the same.
The problem? No snow. Too little ice.
"We're going to all pray for a better winter next year, that's for sure," Hway said.
It might not be enough. While this year's brown winter may be a result of El Niño, which is the cyclical warm climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean, researchers say Minnesota's winters are getting increasingly warmer, meaning fewer days of lake ice and shallower snow packs on hills and trails.
Businesses that depend on ice for fishing and snow for skiing might need to adjust their business model, said Stefan Liess, a University of Minnesota climate researcher. Longstanding wintertime culture and traditions may need some tweaking as well.
"You might need to change from skiing to winter hiking. Instead of snowshoes, you may need hiking shoes," Liess said of research showing Minnesota with the strongest winter warming in the contiguous United States.
This season's 5.3 inches of snowfall so far, recorded at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport through Jan. 4, pales in comparison with the 39.3 inches of snow that fell in the same period last year. On average, the Twin Cities receives just over 20 inches of snow by this time every winter.