Tolkkinen: A Trump victory could threaten Finland

DULUTH - FinnFest in Duluth is not only about rug making, Finnish dances or learning Nordic walking.

The soft diplomacy comes with an earnest undercurrent: to keep alive ties between Finland and U.S. Finns, especially during a time of geopolitical upheaval.

Finland, a small wooded country about the size, population and topography of Minnesota, has a story to tell that should appeal not just to Finnish-Americans but to anyone who cares about Europe and our country’s relationships with allies around the globe.

Finland probably understands Russia better than any other country in the world. It was once ruled by the czar and shares an 830-mile border with Russia. During World War II, the world watched as little Finland fought off an invasion by the then-Soviet Union. The U.S.S.R. managed to chomp off a section of Finland, but the country managed to maintain its independence.

Finland has kept a wary eye on its neighbor ever since. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, public support in Finland for joining NATO skyrocketed to 80%, Jarmo Sareva, the consul general of Finland in New York, told an audience of about 200 Saturday at FinnFest. Finland joined NATO in 2023, more than doubling the border of NATO nations with Russia.

Like all of Europe — and maybe most of the planet — Finland is paying close attention to the U.S. presidential election. Which means Finns are glued to their devices, jaws dropped to the floor.

What Sareva and other Finnish officials at FinnFest were too diplomatic to say is that a Donald Trump victory this fall may well embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin to further attack Europe.

Trump has promised that if elected, he will bring a swift and peaceful conclusion to the Ukraine war. But as Finnish parliamentarian and former foreign affairs minister Pekka Haavisto pointed out, nobody knows what that peace might look like. Trump could very well stop sending money and weapons to Ukraine, forcing that democratic nation to give up huge swaths of territory to Russia.

If Ukraine falls, what happens to Finland? Trump has flirted with pulling out of NATO, and the latest from his inner circle is a “radical reorientation” of the alliance credited with keeping the peace in Europe for 75 years. If NATO weakens, what will Russia do next?

Already there are signs that Russia is trying to destabilize Finland. Floods of Yemeni and Somali refugees have forced Finland to close its eastern border with Russia. Communication cables have been cut, and it’s suffered information warfare and cyberattacks.

“We are not in war in Finland but we are not in peace, either,” said Jarno Limnéll, a member of the Finnish parliament and a military expert.

The Finns have launched education efforts to ensure that all citizens receive cyber security training, not just in the technical aspects, but in understanding disinformation. This kind of training would be useful in Minnesota as well, if it’s not too late. Already many Minnesotans don’t know who to trust after years of vilification of the mainstream media and the spread of disinformation through social media.

The Finnish officials at FinnFest were careful not to paint a dire picture in case of a Trump victory in November. After all, Trump did strengthen Ukraine militarily during his time in the White House in ways that President Barack Obama chose not to. And despite the anti-NATO rhetoric, the U.S. did meet its security obligations during Trump’s term.

But Trump’s rhetoric is troubling. In Europe, political campaigns are increasingly focused on security and defense, a shift from the European Union’s current focus, Haavisto said. That seems a clear sign of how worried Europe is about the possibility of having to defend itself against Russia.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, is also an unknown. She may depart from U.S. foreign policy, though a radical departure seems unlikely. Nobody rocks the boat like Trump, whose commitment to U.S. democracy (Trump supporters prefer the term “republic,” which feels like preparing to deny that we live in a democracy), seems pretty weak.

“Christians, get out and vote. Just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years,” Trump told a conservative group Friday in Florida. “You know what? It’ll be fixed. It’ll be fine. You won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians.”

I hope the beautiful Christians I know and grew up with pay close attention to what’s happening in Europe. This is not a time for partisan politics but a time to stand up to dictators and dictator wannabes —— at home and abroad.