After New Hampshire loss, how far will Dean Phillips take his presidential campaign?

MANCHESTER, N.H. - Dean Phillips bolted onto the stage in front of a few dozen of his closest supporters here Tuesday night, excitedly declaring his primary loss to President Joe Biden a personal victory for a long-shot candidate who entered the race just three months ago.

Phillips nearly achieved his personal goal of winning 20% of the vote or more — garnering 19.5% in New Hampshire’s Democratic presidential primary election as of Wednesday morning. But Biden still won by a resounding margin, rebuffing Phillips’ argument that the president is too politically unpopular to be re-elected and prompting some to say the Minnesota congressman should reconsider his campaign.

“I felt he needed to get 40% of the vote to maintain his viability,” said former New Hampshire House Speaker Steve Shurtleff, who endorsed Phillips and voted for him in the primary. “Going on, his possibilities will diminish with each primary. And I think he should seriously look to 2028.”

Now might be the time to “move on and look for consolidation in the Democratic Party,” Shurtleff said Wednesday.

Phillips has vowed to continue to the next Democratic presidential primary elections in South Carolina, where Biden has a strong base of support, and Michigan. He won’t be on the ballot in Nevada, which follows South Carolina and comes before Michigan, because he missed the state’s filing deadline.

Phillips and his campaign staff have said he will spend some time in South Carolina before its Feb. 3 primary but will focus most of his efforts on Michigan, which votes Feb. 27.

To Dante Scala, a University of New Hampshire political science professor, Tuesday’s election was almost tailor-made for a Phillips upset. Biden chose not to appear on the ballot here, forcing his supporters to cast write-in votes. And many voters were angry with the Democratic National Committee and Biden for moving South Carolina’s party sanctioned primary ahead of New Hampshire’s historically first-in-the-nation contest. Because New Hampshire defied the DNC on that issue, no delegates were awarded by Tuesday’s votes.

The Phillips campaign served as a sort of vessel for New Hampshire voters who were angry with the president and the DNC. But an upset never materialized.

“I don’t think the story this morning is, ‘There’s clear evidence of Joe Biden’s weakness with the Democratic base,’” Scala said Wednesday. “For Biden to do this well, I don’t know where [Phillips] goes from here, how his message changes.”

Phillips told reporters Tuesday night he “will not quit” until there are polls comparing how he would fare in a head-to-head matchup against former President Donald Trump versus how Biden would fare.

“If somehow Joe Biden miraculously improves and is positioned to actually win this thing, and I’m not, of course I’m going to fold it and get behind him,” Phillips said. “Conversely, if those polls show that I can do that and he probably can’t, I believe it is incumbent on the president to do the same for me and deny himself the nomination.”

Running for president is a highly expensive endeavor, however, and Phillips could struggle to attract donors if he performs poorly in South Carolina, Michigan and on Super Tuesday, when Minnesota and more than a dozen states hold their primaries.

Phillips told the Star Tribune Tuesday night that, “No question, I will have to raise money to keep going.”

“That, to me, is probably the only thing that would prevent me from continuing,” Phillips said.

Scala said it’s possible Phillips’ campaign could stay afloat later into the year if some big donors or PACs come to his aid. But such money could be offered by Republican sources who want to hurt Biden ahead of a general-election rematch with Trump.

“Would he continue under those circumstances?” Scala said.

Phillips has openly said he might have “torpedoed” his political career by challenging the incumbent president. A third-term congressman representing suburbs west of the Twin Cities, Phillips announced in November he wouldn’t seek re-election to his U.S. House seat as he went all-in on his presidential campaign.

He was once considered a rising star within his party in the U.S. House and in Minnesota. Some speculated he could one day run for governor or U.S. Senate, a notion Phillips has shot down.

Minnesota DFL Chairman Ken Martin said Phillips’ quixotic quest for the presidency appears ego-driven and has hurt his reputation in his congressional district.

“What’s a little crazy to me is, after such a thumping in New Hampshire … he doesn’t quite understand that people are saying they don’t favor his candidacy,” Martin said. “It reminds me of that movie Dumb and Dumber where that character asks a person if they would go out on a date with him and she says, ‘Never in a million years.’ And he says, ‘Oh, so you’re saying there’s a chance?’”

“While there’s statistically a chance, I suppose, the reality is he keeps lowering or changing the goalposts so he can stay in this race,” Martin said.

If his presidential campaign fails, Phillips told the Star Tribune he will never run for public office again in Minnesota.

“I’m just going to make it really clear,” Phillips said in an interview late last week. “My career in Congress will be over at the end of this term. I will never run for another public office in Minnesota. I will continue this endeavor until I believe there is a candidate — I believe it will be me — but a candidate in place who will defeat Donald Trump. That is my mission.”

But Phillips hasn’t ruled out running for president again.

“I would never rule out 2028,” Phillips said. “My runway was really short and I’m discovering ... if I had just a little more time, I mean my goodness, I think we could just win this outright and, frankly, easily.”

Shurtleff said the Granite State would welcome the Minnesotan back.

“He made a lot of friends while he was in New Hampshire and I think he’s got a great future,” Shurtleff said. “I respect him for getting into the race. I thought that took a great deal of political courage.”