Northstar Commuter Rail passengers walked to the 4:27 p.m. train at the Target Field Station in Minneapolis. A looming U.S. rail strike could pose havoc on passenger service here and elsewhere. (Jeff Wheeler, Star Tribune/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The looming threat of a national rail strike has already begun reshaping plans for Minnesota rail passengers as some train schedules were suspended Wednesday and others targeted for temporary shutdown.

Northstar Line commuter Quetina Mulbah said she'll probably start driving if the train service switches to buses, which could happen as soon as Friday, according to Metro Transit.

And Dan Daley of St. Louis Park said he has rescheduled an overnight trip Friday to Minot, N.D., aboard Amtrak's Empire Builder.

He said he changed his plans as soon as he learned the train might be canceled. "I didn't want to wait until the last minute," Daley said.

It was a prescient move: Amtrak has suspended all Empire Builder and other long-distance train routes, with some exceptions in the Northeast.

Concerns have escalated rapidly this week that the stalemate between freight rail companies and two of the largest rail worker unions could upend the nation's transportation network with far-reaching effects on the economy, supply chains and delivery of everything from produce to raw materials to new cars.

The unions say the strike, which could start as early as Saturday, may be necessary as they negotiate working conditions and strict attendance policies.

The talks don't involve Amtrak or Metro Transit directly, but because the services use the same freight rail lines that could be shut down by the strike, the train operators began taking steps this week to curtail service. Amtrak owns the rails it uses in the Northeast, and service there is expected to continue. No disruption is expected for Twin Cities light-rail service.

A statement from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said the strike could cost $2 billion a day while disrupting 12.2 million Amtrak riders in 46 states.

Amtrak has tried to notify passengers of any cancellations at least 24 hours in advance, according Amtrak's website. Passengers will be offered full refunds.

Daley said he planned to take the Empire Builder to attend a football game at his alma mater, Minot State University. It's a trip he's taken often and one he planned to take for free this weekend, thanks to benefits accrued on his Amtrak credit card. The price of gas has made train travel more attractive, he said, adding that it already had some good perks. "If you play your cards right, you can sleep on the train," said Daley.

He said he was able to reschedule his train trip to early November for another Minot State football game at no cost.

The Empire Builder had 221,000 passengers in fiscal 2021, according to Amtrak, about half the ridership before the pandemic.

In the Twin Cities, the Northstar train has run four times daily on weekdays since a drop in ridership due to the pandemic. It carried 35,441 passengers during the second quarter of this year, a 112% increase over the same period last year.

Northstar train passenger Mulbah said she'll start driving again if Metro Transit replaces the service with a bus. "Taking the bus would be just too many stops," she said Wednesday afternoon, shortly before boarding the evening train heading north.

On the Northstar, she can ride from Coon Rapids to Target Field — just a couple blocks from her office — with just one stop.

An empty Union Depot with the Amtrak trains all canceled Wednesday afternoon, September 14, 2002 in St. Paul. A rail strike looming across the United States and could pose havoc on passenger service here and elsewhere. Empire Service is shut down, Northstar Commuter Rail could be soon. (Jeff Wheeler, Star Tribune/The Minnesota Star Tribune)