Another Warm Day Friday Before Cooler, Wetter Weekend - Even Some Snow?

Thursday set more record highs across the region. The Twin Cities saw a high of 87F, beating the previous record of 84F in 2006. Other locations across the region that saw record highs included St. Cloud, Rochester, Eau Claire, and Sioux Falls.

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Friday will be another warm day here in the metro - though it won't be as warm (nor record-breaking). Morning temperatures start off around 60F with highs climbing up to around 80F under mainly sunny skies. Clouds will start to increase late in the day ahead of showers and potential thunderstorms that'll move in mainly overnight.

While it'll still be breezy - it won't be as breezy as it was Thursday either. Wind gusts up to around 25 mph can be expected out of the south throughout the day.

As a system and cold front slowly move east on Friday, we'll watch shower and storm chances mainly in the western half of Minnesota during the day. Those rain chances move east into the evening (and I'll have more on those rain chances below). Temperatures range from the 40s in the Red River Valley (a few degrees below average) to the low 80s across parts of southern Minnesota (up to 25F degrees above average).

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Forecast loop from 7 AM Friday to 1 PM Saturday.

We will see precipitation chances moving east across the state late this week into the weekend, and I'm going to break this into two parts for easier explanation. Rain chances during the day Friday will be mainly limited to western Minnesota, with those chances moving east into the overnight hours (including the metro). A few storms will also be possible. Meanwhile, late Friday Night into Saturday morning some of the precipitation on the back side in western Minnesota will start to change over to wintry precipitation as cooler air moves in. This looks to mainly be in the form of either mixed rain/snow or some light snow.

Meanwhile, a few of the storms Friday and Friday Night could be on the strong side across southern Minnesota - mainly Mankato southward. A Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) is in place. Hail will be the primary threat.

3-hour total precipitation loop from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM Monday.

As the precipitation continues to move eastward this weekend, we'll see that cooler air move in and change some of the rain over to either a mix or all snow Saturday Night into Sunday. Right now snow totals look to be mainly light across the state where snow does fall, with better snow accumulation chances in Wisconsin.

Snow accumulation through 7 AM Sunday.

Yes, after flirting with 90F in the metro we're still talking snow. Right now snow accumulations do appear to be light, but it certainly can't be ruled out at the moment with that changeover occurring Saturday into Saturday Night across the state. The odds of snow actually accumulating may be better across northern Minnesota where there is still snow pack and has been cooler temperatures for that snow to fall on, but some slushy accumulations can't be ruled out farther south - especially depending on snowfall rates (higher rates would promote the chance of accumulation, with lower rates possibly leading to more melting on contact).

Probability Of 1"+ Of Snow. Odds are low (below 50%) of seeing an inch or more of snow this weekend as this precipitation moves through, with the highest odds in parts of northeastern Minnesota and into Wisconsin.

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After a warm Friday, we watch those precipitation chances as well as cooler temperatures move in.

Saturday: Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible. Highs climb only into the low 50s - which is a few degrees below average. Breezy winds out of the northwest will gust up to 30 mph.

Sunday: Some light snow or a mix of rain or snow is expected as temperatures start off in the mid-30s with highs only climbing into the 40s. Breezy northwest winds will gust up to 40 mph.

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Last Day of Heat - Cool Correction Coming
By Paul Douglas

Minnesota. Where you can get all 4 seasons conveniently crammed into one manic week. Melting snow, river flooding, record heat, fire risk. Check. Hey, no tornadoes! Good point.

We don't have the ingredients for a severe storm outbreak, but rumbles of thunder are possible by evening; the atmosphere irritable after today's brush with 80F. Keep in mind the average high now at MSP is 57F. Not that our weather has ever been average. Periods of rain fall tonight into Saturday, with a little snow or flurry action by Sunday.

The European model continues to print out a few inches of slush for western Wisconsin, but I've kicked the Doppler and lit a candle, hoping for nothing more than a little slush in the metro area.

July in April was fun, perhaps an atmospheric response to nearly 90" of snow, but a minor reality check is on the way, with daytime highs in the 50s and low 60s in the 7-Day. No need for A/C next week.

Yes, this was just a taste, a hot preview of coming summer weather attractions.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Warm sun, late thunder. Wake up 61. High 80. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Cooler with periods of rain. Wake up 50. High 53. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY: Wind-whipped flakes. Slushy spots? Wake up 34. High 44. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NW 15-35 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny, hints of spring. Wake up 31. High 53. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Blue sky, trending milder. Wake up 29. High 57. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Unsettled, few rain showers. Wake up 38. High 56. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind E 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Milder, showers and T-storms. Wake up 43. High 67. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SE 15-30 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
April 14th

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 26 minutes, and 35 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 1 second

*When do we see 14 Hours of Daylight?: April 26th (14 hours, 1 minute, 49 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 6:30 AM? April 14th (6:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 8 PM? April 17th (8:00 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
April 14th

1983: A 'surprise' snowstorm covers east central Minnesota. The Twin Cities receives 13.6 inches, the all-time record for April. Brilliant blue skies and bright sun appear the next morning.

1886: The deadliest tornado in Minnesota's history rips through St. Cloud and Sauk Rapids, leaving 72 people dead. 80 percent of all buildings in Sauk Rapids would be leveled as the tornado's width expanded to 800 yards. As it crossed the Mississippi it knocked down two iron spans of a wagon bridge and local witnesses said the river was 'swept dry' during the tornado crossing. 300,000 dollars damage would occur in Sauk Rapids, only 4,000 dollars of which was insured. The forecast for that day was for local rains and slightly warmer with highs in the 50's.

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An area of low pressure will continue to plague the Southeast on Friday, bringing shower and storm chances. Showers and storms will also be possible in the mid-section of the nation, with a few strong storms possible in the Plains. On the colder side of that system, some light snow or a mix of precipitation will be possible. Snow will continue to fall in the northern Rockies.

Numerous record highs will be possible from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday, including in New York City.

A foot or more of snow could fall through Saturday in portions of the northern Rockies. The heaviest rain will be across parts of the Southeast, with up to 3" possible in locations (with isolated higher amounts).

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Earth just had its second-warmest March on record

Image: NOAA

More from NOAA: "The planet continued its exceptionally warm start to the year with its second-warmest March on record. Global sea ice coverage also felt the heat, with sea ice running at its second-smallest extent since records began in 1979, according to scientists from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. ... The average global land and ocean-surface temperature for March was 2.23 degrees F (1.24 degrees C) above the 20th-century average of 54.9 degrees (12.7 degrees C), ranking as the second-warmest March in the 174-year global climate record, behind March 2016. March 2023 also was the 47th-consecutive March and the 529th-consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average. Looking at the continents, Asia had its second-warmest March on record, and South America and Africa each had their fourth-warmest. Europe saw its 10th-warmest March on record, while North America had a warmer-than-average March, but it did not rank among the top-20 warmest on record."

The Climate Data Wars Are Just Beginning

More from HeatMap: "Large companies generate a gargantuan amount of carbon-dioxide pollution. Take the big-box retailer Costco. During the financial year 2020, it emitted 144.5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide — a number on par with the Philippines' annual emissions. Nike pumped out the equivalent of 11 million metric tons of carbon during the same period, a footprint roughly equal to Zimbabwe's. Apple, meanwhile, was somewhere on the order of Estonia. You've probably seen data like this before. But here's a question: How do companies actually arrive at these numbers? How did Costco know its carbon footprint in 2020? Carbon dioxide and other climate-warming gases are invisible, potent even in trace amounts, and constantly absorbed and produced by hundreds of billions of different organisms and chemicals around the world. Costco alone directly or indirectly choreographs the actions of millions of people and things: sailors and longshoremen, factory workers and cotton farmers, employees coming in for their shift and marketing managers spending down an advertising budget."

Biden's new vehicle emissions rules could speed the EV revolution

More from Grist: "Although the global market for electric vehicles has surged over the past decade, EVs still account for only a small percentage of new cars sold in the United States. Since 2014, their domestic market share has risen from around 1 percent to around 6 percent. The Biden administration has far bigger plans for the next eight years: Under a sweeping set of vehicle emissions rules unveiled by the Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday, EVs would make up as much as two-thirds of all U.S. car sales by 2031 — a more than tenfold increase from current levels. The EPA's new pollution standards target conventional passenger cars, vans, and pickup trucks. They set much stricter emission limits for planet-warming gasses like carbon dioxide and methane as well as toxic pollutants like nitrogen oxide. When the vehicle emissions rules take effect, new automobiles will be allowed to spew less than half as much carbon as they can now. A separate set of rules will limit carbon emissions from larger heavy-duty trucks."

Midwest CO2 pipelines push ahead as bills fizzle

More from E&E News: "Companies planning carbon capture projects in the Midwest are defeating legislative proposals to add regulations or block them, increasing the likelihood that a sprawling network of planned pipelines to transport the greenhouse gas will move ahead. The pipeline proposals, which envision moving carbon dioxide from ethanol and fertilizer plants to sequestration sites in Illinois and North Dakota, are viewed by supporters as pivotal for addressing climate change even as they are opposed by some landowners. The legislative debates in the Corn Belt are raising concerns about eminent domain and underground CO2 injection in the region. Of more than two dozen bills filed in six states this year affecting carbon capture and sequestration projects, none has passed so far. Those measures that did advance later fizzled."

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- D.J. Kayser