An economic recession is coming. Or is it?
Economic anxiety has hung in the air in recent weeks as financial markets have fluctuated and consumer sentiment has fallen in the wake of President Donald Trump’s introduction of tariffs and other federal changes. His administration has tried to cast a possible recession as worth it in the long-term, saying policies that will “re-industrialize” America take time to bear out.
Social media is teeming with “recession indicator” memes that point to a vibe-cession, or period of disconnect between the actual economy and public opinion of it. But it’s easy to see why consumers might be getting nervous. A dozen eggs now cost a small fortune, and this week the food delivery app DoorDash partnered with Klarna to offer a buy now, pay later option for food deliveries.
“I think the probabilities [of a recession] have increased over the beginning of the year, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the result of that,” said Tyler Schipper, an economics professor at the University of St. Thomas. “Anytime you have consumers that perceive weakness ... you’re going to start having them reflect that in their spending habits.”
Here’s how to get prepared for a potential economic slowdown — and how to stress less in the meantime.
Don’t panic
It’s important to stay calm.
The indicators that most economists look at to determine the probability of a recession — like consumer spending, the unemployment rate and consumer sentiment — are a bit of a mixed bag right now, Schipper said.
The number of people who expect unemployment to rise in the next 12 months has risen to 66% — the highest percentage in the past 10 years, according to University of Michigan data analyzed by the Bank of America Institute.