Anxious about a potential recession? How to prepare and stay calm.

Tariffs, federal layoffs and recession indicators are on Americans' minds. Here’s how to prep for what you can control.

The Minnesota Star Tribune
March 24, 2025 at 11:00AM
The number of people who expect unemployment to rise in the next 12 months has risen to 66% — the highest percentage in the past 10 years, according to University of Michigan data analyzed by the Bank of America Institute. (Lynne Sladky/The Associated Press)

An economic recession is coming. Or is it?

Economic anxiety has hung in the air in recent weeks as financial markets have fluctuated and consumer sentiment has fallen in the wake of President Donald Trump’s introduction of tariffs and other federal changes. His administration has tried to cast a possible recession as worth it in the long-term, saying policies that will “re-industrialize” America take time to bear out.

Social media is teeming with “recession indicator” memes that point to a vibe-cession, or period of disconnect between the actual economy and public opinion of it. But it’s easy to see why consumers might be getting nervous. A dozen eggs now cost a small fortune, and this week the food delivery app DoorDash partnered with Klarna to offer a buy now, pay later option for food deliveries.

“I think the probabilities [of a recession] have increased over the beginning of the year, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the result of that,” said Tyler Schipper, an economics professor at the University of St. Thomas. “Anytime you have consumers that perceive weakness ... you’re going to start having them reflect that in their spending habits.”

Here’s how to get prepared for a potential economic slowdown — and how to stress less in the meantime.

Don’t panic

It’s important to stay calm.

The indicators that most economists look at to determine the probability of a recession — like consumer spending, the unemployment rate and consumer sentiment — are a bit of a mixed bag right now, Schipper said.

The number of people who expect unemployment to rise in the next 12 months has risen to 66% — the highest percentage in the past 10 years, according to University of Michigan data analyzed by the Bank of America Institute.

But even though the “vibe” among consumers has fallen over the past couple of months by several different metrics, the labor market looks relatively healthy, he said.

The labor market overall is not losing steam, said Brad Horn, a registered investment adviser and founding principal at Saffron Capital. Plus, Minnesota’s unemployment rate is still among the lowest in the country at 3%.

Still, it’s natural to feel anxious when facing economic uncertainty, said Jacelly Cespedes, an assistant professor of finance at the University of Minnesota. But the good news is there’s plenty you can do to manage finances at the household level, she said.

Evaluate your budget

It is a good time to focus on strengthening finances by building an emergency fund, cutting down on unnecessary expenses and getting control of high-interest debt like credit card balances, Cespedes said.

If the debt feels overwhelming, consolidating it into a lower-interest personal loan can simplify payments and reduce your costs.

Be prepared to consistently re-evaluate your budget and finances, said Jamia Erickson, a senior financial adviser at Thrivent, who suggests updating your budget quarterly.

“That budget that might have worked for a lower inflation environment may not be the same,” Erickson said. “Maybe your grocery budget two years ago was $100 a week, but now that eggs cost $7 a dozen, that might not be the situation anymore.”

If I have savings, where should I keep it?

With interest rates still up, some advisers suggest keeping savings in a high-yield money market fund or short-term certificate of deposit (CD) account. These options offer decent returns with minimal risk and easy access to cash if needed, Cespedes said.

Always ensure your money is in FDIC-insured accounts where applicable, she said.

In terms of investments, consider shifting your portfolio away from riskier growth or discretionary stocks and toward safer assets like bonds or high-yield money market funds, especially now that interest rates remain relatively high, Cespedes said.

It is a good time to re-evaluate your investment risk tolerance, Erickson said.

“It can be very emotional when you see a decrease in your portfolio and you’re getting close to retirement; it can be scary,” Erickson said. “Sometimes people have knee-jerk reactions, and they just want out of the market. That’s when you need to have that conversation with a financial adviser.”

Fully stocked egg shelves are seen at Seward Community Co-op in Minneapolis in February. (Alex Kormann/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

If I don’t have savings, how can I cut costs to build it up?

Start by tracking your expenses. Figure out exactly where your money is going each month.

Identify and eliminate unnecessary costs, like unused subscriptions. There are apps that can help identify them in your bank transaction history, she said. Maybe frequent dining out could be limited.

A popular systematic savings strategy is to use the 50/30/20 rule — 50% for necessities, 30% for wants, 20% for savings/debt — to understand your spending patterns and find areas to trim, Cespedes said.

“Most importantly, automate your savings, even if it’s a small amount each paycheck, to steadily build your emergency fund over time,” she said.

about the writer

about the writer

Zoë Jackson

Reporter

Zoë Jackson is a general assignment reporter for the Star Tribune. She previously covered race and equity, St. Paul neighborhoods and young voters on the politics team.

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