AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Wisconsin's spring primary

WASHINGTON — Wisconsin's top school official faces the first big hurdle of her reelection bid in the spring primary on Tuesday, when she's running against two challengers in a far different political and electoral environment than she did in her successful 2021 campaign.

State Superintendent of Public Instruction Jill Underly seeks a second four-year term in the nonpartisan role. Looking to unseat her are Jeff Wright, superintendent of the Sauk Prairie School District, and Brittany Kinser, an education consultant and founder of a state literacy initiative.

The top two vote-getters will advance to the general election on April 1, when voters will also decide a competitive race for state Supreme Court. At stake is management of a public school system that includes nearly 900,000 students, 111,000 faculty and staff members, 2,190 schools and an annual budget of roughly $9 billion.

Underly has the backing of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin and the state branch of the American Federation of Teachers. The state's largest teachers' union, the Wisconsin Education Association Council, endorsed Underly in 2021 but opted not to back any candidate this year. The organization's political action committee, however, has recommended voting for Wright.

Wright ran as a Democrat for the state Assembly in 2016 and 2018 but lost both races with about 49% of the vote. Kinser supports Republican-backed initiatives to fund alternatives to traditional public schools and is running as the conservative choice in the race.

Kinser leads the field in campaign fundraising thanks to a flurry of contributions in January from big-dollar Republican donors. She had raised $316,000 through Feb. 3, compared with $123,000 for Wright and $121,000 for Underly.

In 2021, Underly narrowly topped the seven-candidate primary field with 27% of the vote. Six candidates were aligned with Democrats, but none emerged as the clear alternative to Underly among Democratic voters. That helped the sole Republican-backed candidate that year, Deborah Kerr, to nab the second spot on the general election ballot with 26% of the vote. Underly went on to win the general election that year with 58% of the vote in a one-on-one contest with Kerr.

This year, three candidates are competing for two spots, and the primary has become several contests stuffed into a single race: one between Underly and Wright among Democratic-leaning voters, another with Kinser trying to consolidate enough support among Republican-leaning voters to outperform one or both of her rivals, and another with all three candidates competing for independent and crossover voters to tip the scales in their favor.

With only two candidates this year to potentially split the support of Democratic-leaning voters, Kinser would likely need to far outperform Kerr's 26% in the 2021 primary to earn a spot on the April ballot, assuming a competitive contest between Underly and Wright.

The primary will be the state's first election since Republican Donald Trump narrowly won Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes in the November presidential contest. The 2021 contest was held on the heels of Democrat Joe Biden's 2020 victory over then-President Trump in Wisconsin and in the Electoral College.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it's determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts are not automatic in Wisconsin, but a trailing candidate may request one if the winning vote margin is less than 1 percentage point. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here's a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Primary day

The Wisconsin spring primary will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.

What's on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in the nonpartisan primary for state superintendent of public instruction. It is the only statewide contest on the ballot, although various local jurisdictions will also hold elections on Tuesday.

Who gets to vote

Any registered voter may participate in the nonpartisan primary for state superintendent.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of Feb. 1, there were nearly 3.9 million active registered voters in Wisconsin. The state does not register voters by party.

The last primary for state superintendent was in 2021, when it was also the only statewide contest on the ballot. Roughly 326,000 votes were cast in that election, which was about 9% of registered voters and about 7% of the voting age population. About 47% of voters cast their ballots before primary day.

As of Thursday, nearly 90,000 ballots had been cast before primary day.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In 2024, the AP first reported results at 9:09 p.m. ET in the August congressional primaries and at 9:11 p.m. ET in both the April presidential primary and the November general election. The election night tabulation ended at about 3 a.m. ET in both the presidential and congressional primaries with about 99% of total votes counted. Election night tabulation ended at 5:47 a.m. ET in the November general election with about 98% of the total vote counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 42 days until Wisconsin's spring election on April 1.