As Angie Craig decides on U.S. Senate run, both parties eye her swing seat turf

If Rep. Angie Craig stays in the U.S. House, it could be the easiest re-election bid of her congressional career.

Her seat in Minnesota’s Second District has been a top target for Republicans since she was first elected in 2018, but her double-digit win last year appears to have steered off Republicans from trying to target the seat next fall.

Craig’s weighing her swing seat as she decides whether to run for retiring U.S. Sen. Tina Smith’s seat instead, a statewide contest that could prove risky for the safe House Democrat. She’ll have to battle it out in what could be a three person or more DFL primary with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Sen. Melissa Lopez-Franzen, who have already announced they’re running for the seat.

Craig said she’s received a lot of encouragement to run for Senate, some even telling her: “There’s nobody who’s better in a fight to take it to Republicans than me.” She says she plans to make a final decision this month.

“We can’t take for granted that Minnesota is a blue state. It’s trending redder than it ever has before. And I know we need a strong statewide candidate that can appeal to Democrats and independents if we’re going to hold the seat, and maybe even bring a few Republicans along,” Craig said.

Craig’s decision could have a cascading effect in the Second District. She has been able to win a historically purple district and outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Tim Walz last year in a tough year for Democrats.

Craig was noticeably missing from the National Republican Congressional Committee’s first version of its “top target” list, on which she’s been a familiar face. It was an early indication Republicans likely won’t target the seat so long as she’s the candidate.

If she does run, it’s likely to put the Second Congressional District back on the GOP’s target list and create a crowded Democratic primary just as she’s been moving up in the ranks in the U.S. House.

She was recently elected ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee, a contest that created one of the most competitive House committee races this year.

Second District DFL Chair James Hepworth said he’s become one of the most popular people in the district since Craig said she’s considering running for Smith’s seat. Multiple people have reached out to him about launching their own bid for Craig’s seat as she decides what she’s going to do. If she stays put in the U.S. House, he said none of those prospective candidates will challenge her.

“Our understanding right now is it’s not a targeted district by the Republicans, which is something that hasn’t happened forever, since Angie started running,” Hepworth said.

It’s a similar calculus for Republicans, said Second Congressional District Republican Chair Joe Ditto, who thinks it will be a “competitive race” if Craig runs for Senate. It will be “more challenging” for Republicans if she runs for re-election in the House, he admits.

Like Democrats, some Republicans are also waiting to see what Craig will do.

“If she does stay put, I think a lot of people will keep their powder dry and just wait for another day,” said Republican media strategist Billy Grant, who served as a consultant on the campaigns for Craig’s two-time Republican opponent Tyler Kistner.

But if Craig runs for Senate, Grant said Kistner is “very likely” to run again.

“Tyler Kistner is unquestionably the strongest Republican candidate to run,” Grant said, noting he still has strong name recognition and raised millions each time he ran. However, if Craig runs for re-election to the House, Grant said Kistner, who lost by close margins to Craig each time he ran, won’t run for the seat.

As Kistner plots a possible comeback, Tayler Rahm, who dropped out of the Second Congressional District Republican primary last year and had strong support from the district’s conservative grassroots base, did not rule out a bid when asked.

“Right now, I’m keeping my options open,” Rahm said.

Joe Teirab, Craig’s last Republican opponent, also didn’t rule out a bid. When asked about a possible run, state Sen. Eric Pratt, R-Prior Lake, said: “I haven’t made a decision.”

In the Democratic field, former state Sen. Matt Little, who’s started building support among Second Congressional District DFL delegates, told the Star Tribune he plans to run for Craig’s House seat if she runs for Senate.

“Angie is a friend. We’ve supported each other through very tough races over the last decade and I’ll support her in whatever she chooses to do,” said Little, who hails from Lakeville, the largest city in Dakota County. “And because there’s so much at stake, if she decides to run for the U.S. Senate, we’re ready to go.”

Two other Democrats — state Sen. Matt Klein, DFL-Mendota Heights, who published a campaign website for a congressional run early and took it down, and state Sen. Erin Maye Quade, DFL-Apple Valley, who has congressional campaign websites registered in her name — did not rule out a run for the Second District when asked.

Craig’s decision comes as Republicans are trying to hold their slim House majority and are eager to find districts that can help them expand the map. Meanwhile, Democrats need to win five seats to take back the majority. Craig potentially running for Senate could complicate that.

“The challenge for the Democratic Party is just that it’s a seat today that they don’t have to worry about, but it would be a seat that they would have to worry about in the future as it relates to winning back the House,” former DFL Party Chair Mike Erlandson said of Craig’s seat.

Rep. Tom Emmer, a former chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, recently told Bloomberg Government that Craig leaving the seat would give Republicans a “fabulous opening in a seat that’s basically dead even, and the only reason that it’s not is because of her.”

But Craig believes she’s made the seat safe enough to leave if she needs to.

“I think 2026 is the best chance for us to hold my House seat if I were to step away,” Craig said, adding that she’s spent the last decade working to make it a safe Democratic seat that no one thought she could win.

Walz, an ally of Craig, has also not yet said if he’ll run for a third term as governor. Craig has been considered a top candidate for governor. Asked if a gubernatorial run is off the table, Craig deferred to Walz.

“The governor has to decide and announce what he’s doing,” she said. “I hope the governor announces that he’s running for reelection in 2026. As far as I’m concerned, he is until he says he isn’t.”