The 2022 election left Democrats with a six-seat majority in the state House, and that slim majority, along with a one-seat advantage in the state Senate and the governor’s office, was enough to pass major policy changes — which left DFLers exhilarated and had Republicans saying one-party rule went too far.
Battle to control the Minnesota House is on the ballot
Four legislative seats, which could be decided by just a few dozen votes, would be enough to change the balance of power in Minnesota.
The Minnesota Star Tribune
November 5, 2024 at 11:00AM
On Tuesday, with the entire Minnesota House on the ballot, the results will determine which party has control for the next two years. The Senate isn’t on the ballot until 2026.
During a volunteer rally last week, House Speaker Melissa Hortman, DFL-Brooklyn Park, said she thought voters preferred action to the gridlock of divided government. “They’re looking for people who can get things done,” she said.
But since that win — and especially since the end of the 2023 legislative session — House Republicans have said the DFL went too far, spent too much money and expanded government services too much.
“Minnesotans are ready to move on from the expensive two years of Democrat one-party rule,” House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, said in a statement.
On the campaign trail, Republicans have been talking up the benefits of a divided government — one that moves more slowly and does not make new programs. Republicans need to pick up four seats to flip control of the chamber and break the DFL’s trifecta.
Democrats could lose two seats and still retain control. It’s also possible the election could lead to a 67-67 split, with Democrats losing three seats to Republicans.
The contest will play out largely in the fastest-growing Twin Cities suburbs and exurbs, with closely watched contests in districts covering cities such as Lake Elmo, Shakopee, Lakeville, Chanhassen and Blaine, as well as in St. Cloud, Duluth and the college towns of Winona and St. Peter.
Suburban battlegrounds
GOP Rep. Mark Wiens won the House District 41A seat in Lake Elmo and Afton by just 128 votes in 2022, and is retiring after only one term. Former St. Paul police officer Lucia Wrobleski is the DFLer running for the seat against Republican Wayne Johnson, a former Washington County commissioner.
House District 54A in Shakopee is held by DFL Rep. Brad Tabke, the former Shakopee mayor, running against Aaron Paul, who is a Bloomington police officer. Tabke’s most recent election included a challenger from the Legal Marijuana Now party who received more than 4% of the vote, a margin more than large enough to swing the election. Tabke was one of a small bipartisan group of legislators leading a push to legalize sports betting in Minnesota, so his political fate could have dimensions much larger than his suburban district.
In House District 57B in Lakeville, Republican Rep. Jeff Witte is running for re-election in a district that sits smack in the middle of the Second Congressional District. That larger contest has meant both parties are pumping resources into the area. Brian Cohn, a political newcomer, is the DFL’s nominee. President Joe Biden carried the district in 2020, so the DFL is looking for more of their voters to turn out again this year.
DFL Rep. Lucy Rehm of Chanhassen was elected to represent House District 48A by just 400 votes in 2022, another of the closest contests of the midterm year. Republican Caleb Steffenhagen, a middle school history teacher at a charter school and officer in the Army National Guard, is challenging her in the fast-growing district.
Blaine’s House District 32B is represented by first-term DFLer Matt Norris, who beat an incumbent Republican by just over 400 votes after the district was redrawn. The Republican Party hopes Alex Moe, who works for the Anoka County courts and is getting his law degree at Mitchell Hamline School of Law, can win the district.
Greater Minnesota contests
DFL Rep. Gene Pelowski’s retirement after serving 38 years shook up the race for House District 26A, which includes the college town of Winona. FairVote MN’s Sarah Kruger is running as the DFLer against Winona City Council Member Aaron Repinski. Pelowski won comfortably in 2022, and Biden carried the district by 10 points in 2020, but Republicans think the area is trending conservative.
In St. Cloud, Republican Rep. Bernie Perryman is hoping to win re-election against business owner Abdi Daisane, the DFL candidate. Perryman carried the district by just 199 votes, and the area voted for Biden in 2020.
The Democratic vice presidential candidate could either contribute to a historic win, or face scrutiny as Kamala Harris’ pick if she loses.
