Biden's unpopular candidacy

Think back five years — challenging, we know, given all that's transpired since then — but Joe Biden at the time seriously considered whether to declare he would serve just one term if elected president of the United States.

It was late 2019, and he was struggling to gain traction in a crowded Democratic primary field and needing to set himself apart from his younger rivals. We know now he made no such pledge and won the prize anyway.

But the belief lingered well past his defeat of Donald Trump in 2020 that, once his term ended, he could well cede the mantle of Democratic Party leader, given his age. As an unnamed (and apparently unheeded) Biden campaign adviser categorically told Politico in late 2019, "He's going to be 82 years old in four years and he won't be running for re-election."

So much for categoricals. The oldest president ever is indeed vying for another four years. A Trump rematch is highly likely at this point.

And Americans over many months have expressed unhappiness to pollsters about having to choose between these two again. Third-party candidacies are proliferating, with both GOP and Democratic operatives fretting about how they might tip the scales in battleground states, and a lingering sense that our politics is simply broken.

Republican dysfunction, spotlighted most recently in the excruciating three-week-long effort to elect a new House speaker, has garnered most of the recent attention from the D.C. press corps. But Democratic Party angst, simmering all the while, is beginning to surface. And while we think Biden has been at his most impressive since Oct. 7, the war between Israel and Hamas has not helped party unity.

Biden's approval numbers are at lows for his presidency and in a danger zone for any incumbent seeking re-election. His supporters within the party are growing increasingly frustrated, wondering why voters won't give him credit for the surprisingly resilient economy, reflected in jobs and wage growth.

Not yet. And, if past is prologue with other Biden successes over his term, maybe not ever.

So where does this leave Democrats as the specter of Trump's grievance run looms? Out of options, it seems. And simply hoping their octogenarian standard-bearer comes through, somehow, someway.

Biden's prospects would be brighter if his running mate was widely perceived as capable of taking over should the need arise. But Kamala Harris simply hasn't convinced many Americans of that, and she is another political negative. Yet conventional wisdom is that Biden can't replace her for fear of upsetting Black voters, a crucial part of his base.

Harris' unpopularity isn't a second-tier issue for the campaign. In polling, two-thirds of Americans, including many Democrats, say they don't think Biden will complete a second term if re-elected. Effectively, then, two out of three voters believe they're voting for Harris for president rather than Biden, at least for a portion of the coming four years. You can rely on that being a Republican refrain as the campaign heats up next year.

The situation is such that an obscure centrist Democrat from Minnesota, U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips, just decided to challenge Biden. No one gives him a chance, but Phillips' campaign message is resonant: He expresses nothing but admiration for Biden and the job he's done. But Americans think Biden's too old — fair or not — and they're sour on Harris. Fair or not. Phillips' message can't be dismissed; Democratic Party leaders are in the anxious position of having to do just that because of the trick box they're in.

It didn't have to be like this. Biden could have chosen a better running mate in 2020. Harris, after all, hadn't distinguished herself in her own presidential run. She started as one of the top possibilities and quickly fizzled out amid disarray in her campaign. That kind of performance on the trail doesn't usually lead to a spot on the presidential ticket.

He also could have made it clear earlier this year, or even a few months ago, that he was passing the torch.

It's not like 2016. Barack Obama exited a popular president but failed to tend to the Democratic Party's health. The bench was as lean as could be imagined, leaving Hillary Clinton and Biden the only credible successors. We know how that turned out.

This time, Democrats have big-state governors like California's Gavin Newsom, Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer and even Illinois' J.B. Pritzker as viable candidates. There are plenty of younger politicians to consider as well.

The irony is that Biden, rightly in our view, viewed himself as the Democrats' best chance to unseat Trump in 2020. The party chose wisely and spared the country more Trump-induced chaos.