Analysis: Oregon vs. Ohio State showdown arrives as 12-team playoff field starts taking shape

COLLEGE FOOTBALL INSIDER RANDY JOHNSON

When the SEC added Texas and Oklahoma into its fold, and the Big Ten responded by first landing USC and UCLA, then taking Oregon and Washington, the race was on. College football’s two super conferences fortified their ranks, and now they’ll compete to see which league lands the most teams in the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Saturday in Eugene, third-ranked Oregon is host to No. 2 Ohio State in a matchup of an accomplished newcomer vs. one of the league’s longstanding powers (6:30 p.m., NBC). The outcome of the Ducks (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) vs. Buckeyes (5-0, 2-0) will have playoff implications and might not be the only time this season that the two teams meet. A rematch in the Big Ten championship game wouldn’t be a surprise, and there’s a chance both teams make the playoff, meaning a third Ducks-Bucks installment isn’t out of the question.

First things first, though, and for Oregon that means facing an Ohio State team that scores 46 points per game (tied for fourth nationally) and gives up 6.8 (fewest in the nation). Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard, a transfer from Kansas State, has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal, led by the wide receiver duo of freshman Jeremiah Smith (23 catches, 453 yards, six TDs) and senior Emeka Egbuka (30, 433, 5).

“He came here for a reason,” Buckeyes coach Ryan Day said of Howard. “He came here to play in games like this.”

The Ducks counter with their own transfer QB, Dillon Gabriel, formerly of Oklahoma. Gabriel leads the Big Ten in total offense (304 yards per game) and completes 77.8% of his throws. His weapons include wideout Tez Johnson (43, 395, 5) and running back Jordan James (122.6 all-purpose yards per game).

Oregon coach Dan Lanning is in his third season in Eugene and will coach in this budding rivalry for the first time. He’s not trying to oversell it.

“I try to prepare for each game the same, and certainly everyone knows this game and what its implications are,” he said. “But it is a game, right? It’s a game. It’s the next game. That’s why it’s the most important one.”

Here’s a look at how Big Ten teams stack up when it comes to the playoff:

In the thick of the race: Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State

• Saturday’s Buckeyes-Ducks winner will have the inside track to the Big Ten title game and a playoff berth, and it would behoove Ohio State to win this game because the meat of its schedule is coming up. The Buckeyes still must play Nebraska, Penn State, Indiana and Michigan.

• Oregon would be sitting well with a victory Saturday because the Ducks’ remaining schedule isn’t overly taxing. A home game against Illinois, a trip to Michigan and the regular-season finale against Washington in Eugene are the stiffest tests.

• Penn State has back-to-back trips to USC and Wisconsin before returning home for its Super Bowl — a Nov. 2 matchup against Ohio State.

I’m telling you, there’s a chance: Indiana

• The Hoosiers have been the feel-good story of the Big Ten under coach Curt Cignetti, racing to a 6-0 record with an offense averaging a Big Ten-best 47.5 points per game. For the Hoosiers to make the playoff, they likely can absorb only one loss. They play host to Nebraska next week, Washington in two weeks and Michigan on Nov. 9. Circle Nov. 23 on your calendar. That’s when Indiana visits Ohio State.

They need help: Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers (each one loss), Michigan, Washington, USC (two losses)

• For this group, anything short of running the table likely ends any playoff hopes.

Byes into quarterfinals (top four conference champions): 1. Texas, 2. Ohio State, 3. Miami (Fla.), 4. BYU.

First-round matchups

12. Boise State at 5. Alabama. Winner plays BYU.

11. Clemson at 6. Oregon. Winner plays Miami.

10. Ole Miss at 7. Penn State. Winner plays Ohio State.

9. Tennessee at 8. Georgia. Winner plays Texas.