Big Ten football season preview: Does Oregon already have what it takes?

On Thursday night, the college football season begins in earnest, and the Big Ten debuts as a coast-to-coast, 18-team conference. The additions of USC and UCLA from Los Angeles and Oregon and Washington from the Pacific Northwest cement the Big Ten as one of the nation’s two super conferences, joining the SEC, which added traditional powers Oklahoma and Texas.

The moves coincide with a mammoth national change this fall: the expansion of the College Football Playoff from four to 12 teams. The Big Ten and SEC will be major factors in the playoff, with each league positioned to land three, if not four, teams in the field.

Here is my predicted order of finish in the Big Ten, with ties based on conference standings:

The skinny: Kansas State transfer Will Howard takes over at QB, and he’ll have 1,500-yard receiver Emeka Egbuka at his disposal. New offensive coordinator Chip Kelly can make opponents choose their poison in the run game with either TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. The defense, led by ends JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, might be the best in the nation.

Projected record: 12-1, 8-1 Big Ten, with a win over Oregon in Big Ten Championship Game and a spot in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.

The skinny: QB Dillon Gabriel, a transfer from Oklahoma, is the oddsmakers’ early favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, and he has standout receiver Tez Johnson and productive tight end Terrance Ferguson to throw to. The schedule isn’t easy, as Ohio State visits Autzen Stadium on Oct. 12, and the Ducks travel to Michigan and Wisconsin in November.

Projected record: 11-2, 8-1, with a loss to Ohio State in Big Ten title game and a spot in the CFP first round.

The skinny: Since winning the Big Ten championship in 2016, the Nittany Lions have been stuck behind Michigan and Ohio State. Here’s their chance to break through. Leading that charge will be QB Drew Allar, who had 25 TD passes vs. two INTs last year. A four-game stretch that includes USC, Wisconsin and Ohio State will be daunting.

Projected record: 10-2, 7-2, in a playoff quarterfinal.

The skinny: The Wolverines got their national title, and Jim Harbaugh got out of Ann Arbor ahead of the NCAA posse. New coach Sherrone Moore must replace such offensive standouts as QB J.J. McCarthy and RB Blake Corum, but the defense, led by tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, is on sound footing. The schedule is challenging, with visits from Texas and USC in the first month and Oregon in early November.

Projected record: 9-3, 7-2, on the bubble for a playoff berth.

The skinny: The Hawkeyes defense, even without Cooper DeJean, remains formidable. If Iowa expects to contend in the Big Ten, it’ll need either QB Cade McNamara or Brendan Sullivan to be sharper than they have in training camp. The schedule, which doesn’t have Michigan, Oregon or Penn State, sets up favorably.

Projected record: 9-3, 6-3

The skinny: We’ll know a lot about the Badgers in Week 3, when Alabama visits Camp Randall. Beat the Crimson Tide, and Wisconsin could be in for a special season. The Badgers also get Penn State and Oregon and the Gophers in Madison.

Projected record: 8-4, 6-3

The skinny: How did the Trojans lose five games last year even though they had reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams? Their defense was awful, giving up 34.4 points per game (121st nationally). USC better improve quickly because LSU, Michigan and Wisconsin are among their first four opponents.

Projected record: 7-5, 6-3

The skinny: The Huskies lost a ton from last year’s playoff runner-up, including QB Michael Penix Jr, WR Rome Odunze and coach Kalen DeBoer. Jedd Fisch, coming off a quick turnaround at Arizona, takes over as coach, and the former Gophers offensive coordinator have to navigate the Huskies through trips to Iowa, Penn State and Oregon.

Projected record: 8-4, 5-4

The skinny: Five-star true freshman QB Dylan Raiola will start, and the schedule sets up well for early success, with five home games in the first six weeks. In addition, Nebraska doesn’t play the Gophers, who have won the past five in the series. The Cornhuskers should end a seven-year bowl drought, though trips to Ohio State, USC, Iowa and a home game against Wisconsin will be challenging.

Projected record: 7-5, 5-4

The skinny: New QB Max Brosmer, plus a deep backfield and veteran offensive line should help the offense operate more efficiently, especially in the passing game. The Gophers can’t afford the injuries that hit key spots last year, and the schedule is challenging, starting with North Carolina and continuing with trips to Michigan and the finale at Wisconsin.

Projected record: 7-5, 4-5

The skinny: The Scarlet Knights are a trendy pick for a breakthrough season. For that to happen, QB Athan Kaliakmanis, who struggled as the Gophers starter last year, must improve quickly. The schedule is forgiving because former East Division foes Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State aren’t on it.

Projected record: 6-6, 4-5

The skinny: Under new coach DeShaun Foster, the Bruins endure a three-week stretch of at LSU, home vs. Oregon and at Penn State before playing host to the Gophers. QB Ethan Garbers came on strong late last season and must build on that.

Projected record: 5-7, 4-5

The skinny: Coach Mike Locksley has guided the Terrapins to three consecutive bowls, but with high-output QB Taulia Tagovailoa off to the CFL, a step back won’t be a surprise. RB Roman Hemby will be key early as N.C. State transfer QB MJ Morris adjusts to his new team.

Projected record: 5-7, 3-6

The skinny: Last year’s 5-7 finish was a disappointment in Champaign after the Illini reached the ReliaQuest Bowl in 2022. To secure a bowl spot, Illinois must effectively replace defensive stalwarts Jer’Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph and get consistency from QB Luke Altmyer.

Projected record: 5-7, 3-6

The skinny: The Wildcats surprised the Big Ten in David Braun’s debut season, closing the year with four consecutive victories to finish 8-5. A repeat is less likely with games against Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan over five weeks.

Projected record: 4-8, 2-7

The skinny: Former Gophers defensive coordinator Joe Rossi joined new coach Jonathan Smith in East Lansing, and they’re not looking for quick fixes after Mel Tucker’s firing. The Spartans are rebuilding methodically, so patience is a must.

Projected record: 4-8, 2-7

The skinny: New Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti went 52-9 in six seasons at James Madison. Victories won’t come that easy in Bloomington.

Projected record: 4-8, 1-8

The skinny: Coach Ryan Walters added roughly 20 reinforcements from the transfer portal. They will be needed vs. a schedule that includes Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State.

Projected record: 2-10, 1-8