Bitterly Cold Friday, But Much Warmer This Weekend

Well, the break from the cold weather didn't exactly last long, did it? We'll wake up in the teens below zero Friday morning, only climbing into the mid-single digits during the afternoon hours. We'll see a mix of sun and clouds across the metro. Winds will be on the increase during the day, so it'll continue to feel like the teens below zero even into the afternoon hours.

As we start off Friday morning, wake-up temperatures will range from the teens below zero in southern Minnesota to the -30s in northern areas. However, with stronger northwest winds across the region, it'll feel more like the -30s and -40s in most locations overnight Thursday into early Friday morning. All of Minnesota is under either a Wind Chill Warning or Wind Chill Advisory.

A mix of sun and clouds can be expected across the state on this cold, cold Friday. Highs in most areas will only climb into the single digits above zero. Some areas up north could stay slightly subzero.

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The good news is that this cold blast will be short-lived, and 30s will return for the first time since last Friday as we head into Saturday and Sunday. Unfortunately, the cloud cover returns with mostly cloudy skies expected both days - however, I'll take 30s and cloud cover over highs only in the single digits!

And the even better news? This warmer air LASTS into next week as well! Highs through at least the middle of next week look to remain in the 30s - and 5-15F degrees above average certainly feel better than 20F degrees below average! Models hint at the potential of a slight cool down late next week - and by slight, I mean the upper 20s for highs. What that does mean, though, is there are no additional Arctic blasts in sight over the next week and a half to two weeks once we get past Friday.

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At least all this arctic air is free. Nobody is charging you to shiver. This is Minnesota's cold weather tax: occasional pangs of polar pain that make us grateful for summer.

Welcome to the 10th subzero morning of winter in the Twin Cities. The latest 30-year average for subzero nights at MSP is 20 during a typical winter. We've been blessed (?) with snow, but it hasn't been that cold, compared to some recent winters. It can always be worse.

Morning windchills dip to -30F, but I expect a quick pop of arctic air with rapid warming over the weekend. A streak of 30s next week, even 40F in early February? Not bad, and relative warmth, fueled by a moderate Pacific flow, will linger into mid-February. A higher sun angle makes subzero lows more rare by late February and early March, but expect more rude outbursts from Old Man Winter in the weeks ahead.

NOAA data suggests a 3-year La Nina Pacific cool phase may give way to an El Nino warming event later in 2023. Which might mean a milder Winter of '23-24.

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FRIDAY: Some sun. Still numb. Wake up -13. High 5. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, feeling better. Wake up 3. High 28. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Blue sky, welcome thaw. Wake up 25. High 33. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

MONDAY: Light rain-snow mix possible. Wake up 27. High 36. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Some sun, drying out. Wake up 31. High 35. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

THURSDAY: Sprinkles or flurries. Wake up 25. High 37. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
February 3rd

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 53 minutes, and 8 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 37 seconds

*When do we see 10 Hours of Daylight?: February 6th (10 hours, 1 minute, 13 seconds)
*When is Sunrise at/before 7:00 AM?: February 24th (6:59 AM)
*When is Sunset at/after 5:30 PM?: February 8th (5:30 PM)

This Day in Weather History
February 3rd

1989: Bitterly cold temperatures occur across Minnesota with lows in the 40-below-zero range in the north.

1947: A strong dust storm hits Crookston with winds near 50 mph. Visibility was reduced down to 300 feet.

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The weather will be a lot calmer across the country on Friday. A frontal boundary with an area of low pressure near Florida will produce showers and storms in the Southeast. Snow showers - some of it due to lake effect snow - will be possible across the Great Lakes. A system out west will produce rain and higher-elevation snow.

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Punxsutawney Phil left his burrow for his annual prediction. Here's how much longer winter will last according to the legend

More from CNN: "Punxsutawney Phil – the legendary groundhog weather watcher – woke up and saw his shadow Thursday morning, calling for six more weeks of winter. Each February 2, on Groundhog Day, the members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club make the pilgrimage to Gobbler's Knob, Phil's official home. The group waits for Phil to leave his burrow and, legend has it, if he sees his shadow we're in for six more weeks of winter. If he doesn't, we get to bask in an early spring. Scientifically speaking, winter will officially come to an end on the equinox on March 20, regardless of what Phil predicts. But Mother Nature doesn't always follow the timetable, and neither does Phil."

Climate change has already come for this vineyard. But the wines don't taste like you'd expect

More from the San Francisco Chronicle: "There's a lot of talk about how California's wine industry will have to adapt to climate change in the coming decades. It will sound familiar to regular readers of this newsletter: Vintners will have to use less water, plant heat-tolerant vines and figure out ways to make delicious wines in vintages with erratic weather. Often, these conversations seem to position climate change as something that's coming in the future, rather than something that's already here, which it very much is. Some California winemakers are already working in climates that feel extreme — and are adapting to them in innovative, sometimes even radical, ways. Pietro Buttitta, owner of Prima Materia winery, is one such winemaker."

More from Grist: "It's late October in the northeast corner of Wisconsin. Trees have started to change colors and a colder wind whips across Lake Michigan. Gas station marquees welcome back fall hunters on their annual pilgrimage. Tucked away at a technical college, citizens of the rural town of Peshtigo, population 4,006, try to get comfortable in plastic chairs, ready to hear from state officials, once again, about ways they may one day safely drink their home's well water. ... If a clear solution was sought by those in attendance at the state's most recent in-person Peshtigo PFAS meeting, residents walked away empty handed. Officials told residents that plans to provide new groundwater wells are coming from the company responsible for the pollution, but not everyone gets a well."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser