Brisk travel in the skies and on the roads predicted for Thanksgiving holiday

Passenger traffic at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport on Friday was brisk but manageable, kicking off the official 10-day Thanksgiving holiday travel season.

Industry analysts say air travel during the upcoming Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays could exceed pre-pandemic levels, with planes packed and most passengers likely paying more for tickets.

When COVID-19 broke out nearly three years ago, many people stayed away from air travel. The recovery since then has been steady and consistent despite inflationary pressures that have made air fares more expensive.

Linda Hines, of Des Moines, didn't fly much during the pandemic. But she was at MSP on Friday, waiting to fly to Missoula, Mont., to visit her nephew on a "pre-Thanksgiving" trip. Hines said said she'd noticed that ticket prices "seemed a little high."

AAA predicts nearly 55 million Americans will take to the skies and highways this month for Thanksgiving travel, making this the third-busiest travel year since it started tracking such activity in 2000.

Thanksgiving travel before the pandemic in 2019 saw between 37,000 and 39,000 travelers clear security on MSP's busiest days, said Jeff Lea, spokesman for the Metropolitan Airports Commission (MAC), who noted passenger projections change daily due to last-minute bookings.

The vast majority of travelers — 89% — will drive to their destinations, despite record-high gas prices.

"Higher gas prices don't seem to be enough to stop people from traveling to be with family and friends," said Meredith Mitts, spokeswoman for AAA Minnesota–Iowa.

Some 4.5 million people are expected to fly nationwide during the holiday, an 8% increase over last year.

"Thanksgiving will be the latest stress test for the airlines," said Kyle Potter, executive editor of the Thrifty Traveler website. "It's bound to be the biggest surge in travel demand we've seen since the start of the pandemic."

At MSP, Wednesday is expected to be the busiest day of the Thanksgiving surge, with about 32,300 passengers going through security checkpoints, according to the MAC. The second-busiest day is expected to be Sunday, with more than 32,200 passengers clearing security.

MSP also is anticipating an increase in connecting travelers who clear security at other airports before passing through the Twin Cities.

"Planes are more full than ever, and flight prices are looking unbelievably high for domestic travel over the holidays," Potter said. It's common to see "eye-watering" fares of $800 or more on domestic routes that typically cost $300 round trip, he said.

Following a rocky summer fraught with high-profile flight delays and cancellations, Potter said airlines have decided to get "artificially smaller — sell fewer seats so they weren't constantly overstretching and under-delivering."

The good news, he added, is that airlines seem to have found their footing. Schedules have been scaled back to give carriers "much-needed wiggle room while continuing an unprecedented tear of hiring and training to get more pilots and flight attendants in the skies."

The big unknown at MSP for both Thanksgiving and Christmas travel is always weather. "A bad storm in one pocket of the country could throw an entire airline out of whack," Potter said.

For those who drive this Thanksgiving, the record for the highest daily average price of gas in Minnesota was $3.29 a gallon in 2012, according to AAA. On Monday, Minnesota drivers were paying an average price of $3.57.

"We've found that when gas prices are high, travelers look to offset the added cost by spending less on a hotel, shopping or dining out," Mitts said. But, as AAA notes, expect to pay 17% more for a hotel room.