Byron Buxton's career arc with the Twins offers us some unfortunate but informative symmetry.
A key Twins development: They're no longer dependent on Byron Buxton
The Twins have gone 13-10 since Byron Buxton was placed on the injured list, a departure from past seasons when they have struggled without him.
The Twins have played 1,325 games since the start of the 2015 season, the year Buxton made his MLB debut. Injuries, rest and further minor league seasoning along the way have led to this split:
Buxton has appeared in 670 games since the start of the 2015 season. The Twins have a 365-305 record in those games — a .545 winning percentage that translates to an 88-win pace over a full 162-game season.
The Twins have played 655 games without Buxton since the start of the 2015 season. They have a 296-359 record in those games — a .452 winning percentage that translates to a 73-win pace over a full 162-game season.
That's the difference between an AL Central contender and a division bottom-feeder.
For a micro example, look no further than last season. The Twins were 62-58, two games back in the division race, when Buxton was lost for the season. They finished 78-84 (16-26 without Buxton), a distant 14 games back of Cleveland.
But as Patrick Reusse and I talked about on Monday's Daily Delivery podcast, the Twins' dependence on Buxton has waned this season — particularly in the last month.
The Twins were 55-53, up by two games in the AL Central, when Buxton was shut down. They've gone 13-10 since then, boosting their lead in the weak division to six games heading into Game 1 Monday of an important series against Cleveland.
In those 23 games, the Twins have scored 116 runs — a little more than five per game. Before that, they were averaging a shade under 4.4 runs per game.
Life without Buxton this month has been anything but a drag, which has to do with both Buxton and his teammates.
In past seasons, the Twins missed Buxton's bat — he had an OPS of .874 from 2019 through 2022 — and his otherworldly defense.
This year, beyond a hot April, they have not been treated to either. Buxton hit just .184 with a .662 OPS in 239 plate appearances between May 1 and Aug. 1.
And because the Twins were determined to try to keep his healthy bat in the lineup — a move with some logical foundation but which backfired spectacularly — he has spent the entire year as a designated hitter instead of a Gold Glove center fielder.
The Twins have thrived in his absence because it has freed up a rotating cast of more productive hitters to fill Buxton's DH role and because Michael A. Taylor has hit seven home runs with an .899 OPS while playing above average defense in center since Buxton went on the injured list.
As Buxton nears a potential return, the mantra has changed from "Hurry back, Byron, we need you" to "Take your time, Byron, because we have a good thing going without you."
At least in the short-term, that is a development for the Twins that is both surprising and positive.
Here are four more things to know today:
*The Gophers are more than a touchdown favorite Thursday against Nebraska, which hasn't posted a winning record since 2016. That qualifies as a need-to-win game, as Reusse and I also talked about Monday. Expect more Gophers talk on Tuesday's show with Star Tribune beat writer Randy Johnson.
*The Minnesota Wind Chill, subject of a show last week, lost a heartbreaker in the American Ultimate Disc League semifinals Friday at TCO Stadium. Salt Lake tied the score right at the end of regulation and won 19-18 in overtime.
*A stunning loss to Latvia knocked Rudy Gobert's France team out of the FIBA World Cup. It might not end up being a bad thing for the Wolves for Gobert to have some extra rest. Several other Wolves are still playing, including Karl-Anthony Towns' formidable Dominican Republic squad.
*Justin Jefferson shows up on this ESPN list as the second-best player in the NFL. That's good! But you have to go down to No. 81 on the top 100 to find the next Viking (Danielle Hunter). That's not a great sign. Kirk Cousins also makes it at No. 94.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.