Neal: Carlos Correa is tremendously unlikely to play for anyone but the Twins

In about nine weeks, Twins pitchers and catchers will report to spring training. That is important to note here, in the land of hand warmers and remote starters.

Twins fans will be able to travel to Fort Myers, Fla., for sunbathing, golf and watching a Twins team desperate to distance itself from last season’s late-season collapse.

Carlos Correa is expected to be part of that group.

Despite recent extensive chatter, the chances that Correa plays for the Twins next season are massively greater than the chances that he will be traded.

Yes, the Twins' hot stove has barely gotten warm this offseason. So far, they have signed a handful of players to minor league deals — Huascar Ynoa is back! — and selected pitcher Eiberson Castellanocqtw in the Rule 5 draft. The club would like to shave $10-$12 million off its payroll, making it challenging to upgrade the roster.

For Twins fans looking for any bit of trade speculation, Correa talk filled that void.

The speculation began when a New York columnist suggested the Yankees or Mets trade for Correa. Derek Falvey, Twins president of baseball operations, was asked about it, and he indicated the Twins were open to anything. Speculation went from zero to 1 million about No. 4 being moved.

I spoke with a Twins official late last week. No team has called the Twins about Correa. And the Twins have not reached out to any team about moving Correa. This came after Juan Soto signed his $765 million megadeal with the Mets, forcing the teams who lost the bidding war to explore Plan B. As of this writing, Correa had not been anyone’s Plan B.

Uberagent Scott Boras said Wednesday that Correa, apparently an avid fisherman, is happy in Minnesota.

Don’t expect the Twins to move Correa. And they shouldn’t.

If the current roster heads to Florida in two months, it is strong enough to compete even in an improving AL Central. Correa, despite being limited to 86 games because of plantar fasciitis in his right foot, led the Twins with 3.7 WAR. He batted .310 with a .905 on-base-plus-slugging number. Moving your best player off a competitive roster makes little sense. And the Twins are overdue for a healthier season. Having Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis on the field more often makes them dangerous.

There are other obstacles to trading him. Correa has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and he would have to waive it to make a transaction possible. Players normally don’t waive no-trade clauses unless their contract is, ahem, updated. Correa is set to earn $36 million in 2025. An update from that would be substantial.

Other mechanics of a deal would be challenging as well. How much could the Twins receive in return from a team taking on that much salary? Would the Twins agree to swallow part of it? How would the trading team view Correa’s health situation, coming off plantar fasciitis in each foot over the previous two seasons? And the long-term health concerns about Correa’s surgically repaired ankle — concerns that led the Giants and Mets to nix deals with him before the 2024 season — have not gone away.

Falvey indicated during the winter meetings that the Twins aren’t just going to deal Correa for payroll flexibility. He wants quality in return. Include that among these other factors, and trading Correa is very unlikely to happen.

Here’s one more thing to consider: Correa under a multiyear contract could be appealing to the future owner of the team, as the Pohlad family explores selling the franchise. The process, I’ve been told, has attracted legitimate interest.

When healthy, Correa is one of the best shortstops in the game, a slick fielder with a high-quality arm who is productive at the plate. And Correa is at the top of a roster that, when healthy, is one of the better ones in the American League, with prospects pushing to break into the majors in 2025. Correa adds to the attraction.

Every spring training provides some level of intrigue. But this upcoming one will stand out in particular.

By then, the team expects to have a clear view of the main suitors to purchase the franchise. Outgoing President Dave St. Peter will officially transition into an advisory role as Falvey takes charge of business operations as well as baseball operations.

And No. 4 is expected to be there, leading a team that should be bitter about how the 2024 season ended.