A recent national report said that Correa will likely opt out of his contract with the Twins. There are reasons why you shouldn't consider his departure a done deal.

By Jim Souhan

August 23, 2022 at 11:56AM

A recent national report said Carlos Correa would likely leave the Twins after this season. (Carlos Gonzalez, Star Tribune/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Carlos Correa may be tiptoeing down a narrow, circuitous path that leads back to the Twins.

Recently, Jon Heyman reported that the Twins shortstop would opt out of his contract and become a free agent this fall.

Heyman, who works for the New York Post and MLB Network, is credible. Like all reporters invested in breaking national news, he is a conduit for information that sources want made public, but don't want their names attached to.

Heyman's information would seem to emanate from Correa's agent Scott Boras, or someone in Boras' circle, but the timing was illogical. Correa doesn't want to answer questions about his contract during a race.

Instead of taking the report at face value, consider the possibility that Correa could return to Twins for a second season.

When the Twins signed Correa to a three-year deal worth a potential $105 million, while giving him the ability to opt out after each of the first two seasons, everyone in baseball assumed that Correa would opt out after one year to pursue a long-term contract.

That's possible. It may even be likely. But it's not a foregone conclusion.

Correa's performance, the Twins' competitiveness and the way Correa has provided leadership and found comfort in the Twins' clubhouse all have created the possibility that he will return for a second season if he doesn't receive a massive offer from another team.

According to baseball sources and logic, here are the factors that could lead to Correa being the Twins' starting shortstop in 2023:

The Twins love having him in their clubhouse. Josh Donaldson's brash, egotistical approach was not a comfortable fit. Correa is considered a leader and a resource. The Twins' brain trust consulted with him before the trade deadline. He has bonded with the team's most talented player, Byron Buxton, and is invaluable because he can communicate easily with those who speak English and Spanish.
Correa, according to several people in the Twins' organization, has enjoyed his season in Minnesota. He acclimated quickly and is valued by his teammates. And the Twins' passive-aggressive fans have no interest in booing him over the Houston Astros' cheating scandal, even though they booed him during the 2020 playoffs.
None of the above would matter if Correa could land a $200 million deal elsewhere, but he's having an average season, not the market-altering season he had hoped for. He's playing well enough for the Twins to want to pay him $35 million for another season, and hitting at a pedestrian enough rate that no other team may want to sign him to the kind of deal he and Boras crave. Boras loves groundbreaking deals, and Correa isn't going to get one after knocking in 50 runs.
One of the reasons the Twins were happy with a deal in which Correa could opt out is that their shortstop of the future, Royce Lewis, figured to be ready to take over by 2023 at the latest. Lewis' knee injury means he is not expected to be ready for opening day, and he's versatile enough that he could play another position if Correa is entrenched at shortstop. The way the Twins are hitting lately, they could use Correa and Lewis in the same lineup.
If the Twins don't have Correa, they'll have to sign a "bridge'' shortstop who could play the position until Lewis is ready. The last time they signed a "bridge" shortstop, Andrelton Simmons helped destroy their 2021 season.
If Correa opts for free agency, he will be competing in the marketplace with Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Turner's WAR (wins above replacement rating) this season is 4.0. Swanson's is 4.6. Correa's is 3.1.

On Monday night, Correa singled, tripled and walked in the Twins' 2-1 loss to Texas. On the season, he's hitting .269 with an OPS of .783 — pretty good numbers in a season of depressed offense. He has been an excellent defender and an intelligent baserunner, and on a team desperate for quality at-bats, he would fit in again nicely in 2023.