Census shows Minnesota's diversity growing, white population sees first-ever drop

Minnesota is becoming more diverse, with the number of white residents dropping for the first time in history, Census Bureau data released Thursday show.

The state's nonwhite population is driving Minnesota's overall population growth, and these shifts are even more pronounced in the metro area. Minnesota's demographic changes over the past decade mirror population trends across the nation, which saw the non-Hispanic white population decline and the number of people living in urban areas increase.

"Everyone knows it's coming and everyone knows we're getting more diverse," said Susan Brower, Minnesota's state demographer. "To see those [non-Hispanic white] numbers actually decline, we realize it's not coming; it's already here."

Minnesota's total population climbed by more than 400,000 over the past decade to 5,706,494. The number of residents who identify as Black, Asian, Hispanic or two races accounted for much of the state's growth, while the non-Hispanic white population fell by slightly more than 1%.

All 87 Minnesota counties remain majority white, but the state's diversity index grew to 40% from 30%. That index measures the chances that two people, chosen at random, would be from different racial and ethnic groups. The Census Bureau changed the wording on race and ethnicity questions in 2020 and how responses were processed, which might account for some changes.

"Growth in our multiracial population has been pretty significant since 2010," said Justin Hollis, a research scientist at the Wilder Foundation's Minnesota Compass project, which analyzes community data. More people are identifying as two or more races and becoming more comfortable identifying themselves in different ways than they did 10, 20 or 50 years ago, he said.

The growing diversity is even more stark in people younger than 18. More than one-third of Minnesotans in that age group identify as Hispanic or a race other than white, a much higher share than among adults.

The county with the highest growth rate was Carver County in the southwestern metro. Neighboring Scott County was close behind, followed by Olmsted and Wright counties. Ten Minnesota counties had double-digit percentage growth, most in the metro area.

"We're growing, yea!" said Rochester Mayor Kim Norton, whose city is the Olmsted County seat. "All of us that live here have been able to sense it and feel it, whether it's traffic or housing needs."

The growth is welcome and helps bolster the city's workforce, Norton said, but she noted it also challenges communities to build more housing and to maintain a high quality of life for more residents without raising taxes.

Hennepin County had the highest numerical population growth, said Brower, who noted growth in urban areas, such as Minneapolis, marks a turnaround from the past decade. Many counties outside of the metro area saw more "stability," she said, with either slight increases in population or slight declines.

The non-Hispanic white population declined in 66 of 87 counties, while nonwhite population percentages increased everywhere. Nobles and Mower counties had the largest percentage growth in nonwhite populations.

Thursday's release of the new population numbers sets off a rush to complete the redistricting process, in which states draw the political maps that will guide their elections for the next decade. Minnesota will spend the next six months battling over the boundaries of the state's eight congressional districts and 201 legislative seats.

Brower said population growth was most pronounced in Minnesota's Fifth District, which includes Minneapolis, the suburban Third District, as well as the Sixth District stretching from the northern suburbs to St. Cloud. That means those districts might have to shrink geographically while the western Seventh District and southern First District lost the most population and will need to grow in size.

"That's going to cause considerable shifts for those districts," said Brower.

The Legislature is tasked with shaping the lines by February, but political clashes have long resulted in that responsibility being handed over to the courts. Groups have already filed a lawsuit asking the judicial branch to take over the process.

Minnesota had the highest census self-response rate in the nation, which helped the state narrowly cling to its eight seats in Congress despite seeing slower population growth than some other states. States in the West continued to be in the fastest growth category, while population increases slowed in the Midwest and Northeast.

Hennepin County Commissioner Irene Fernando said the idea of losing a congressional seat "took my breath away" and would have complicated the already challenging redistricting process. She said she is proud her county, along with nonprofits, municipalities and other groups, worked to make sure people were comfortable being counted and that they did not lose the additional resources and the amplified voice that comes with a congressional seat.

"That flows to every level of government," Fernando said.

MaryJo Webster and Jeff Hargarten contributed to this report.