Second highest year-end holiday travel forecast since AAA began tracking in 2000. AAA projects 115.2 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the 10-day year-end holiday travel period*. This year's total number of domestic travelers is a 2.2% increase over last year and the second highest year-end travel forecast since 2000, when AAA began tracking holiday travel. 2019 remains the busiest Christmas and New Year's travel period on record with 119 million travelers. "This year-end holiday forecast, with an additional 2.5 million travelers compared to last year, mirrors what AAA Travel has been observing throughout 2023," said Paula Twidale, Senior Vice President of AAA Travel. "More Americans are investing in travel, despite the cost, to make memories with loved ones and experience new places."

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"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."

It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. This by the way doesn't look to be changing anytime soon with milder than average temperatures continuing and very little snow in the forecast. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.

See more from MRCC HERE:

Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.

"Will we have snow on the ground at Christmas? It's an age-old question that we hear frequently as the holidays approach. The chances of having a "white Christmas," defined as having one inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25th, range from virtually guaranteed in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and a good part of the Arrowhead, to about 60% in southwestern Minnesota. The snow depth at most sites is measured once a day, usually in the morning. The best chances of having a white Christmas is almost guaranteed. Northern Minnesota is one of the few non-alpine climates in the US where a white Christmas is almost a sure bet. In 124 years of snow depth measurements in Twin Cities, a white Christmas happens about 71% of the time. From 1899 to 2022 there have been 36 "brown Christmases," with either a 0 or a "trace" reported for snow depth on December 25th in the Twin Cities; the last such instance was in 2021, when warm conditions melted all remaining snow on the 24th and in the overnight hours before the morning observation. The years 2018 and 2015 also no measurable snow on the ground in the Twin Cities on December 25th."

Here's a look at the White Christmas History over the last 49 years (since 1953) in the Twin Cities. Since 2000, we've had 6 brown Christmases, where we failed to have at least 1" of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. 2021 was the most recent year, but in 2010, MSP had a whopping 19" of snow on the ground. Note that in 2018, we had a weak El Nino and we had a brown Christmas and in 2015, we had a very strong El Nino we had a brown Christmas.

Meanwhile, it has been a very warm and snowless December so far in the Twin Cities. Temperatures running nearly +9.0F above average through the first 18 days of the month, we're currently sitting at the 9th warmest start to any December on record. We're also -5.6" below normal snowfall for the month. We still have a little more than 2 weeks left of the month, but if we fail to see any additional snow this month, this would be the 8th least snowy December on record.

It certainly has a warm year, but did you realize that MSP is on track for the 3rd warmest on year record? With only 13 days to go, the average temperature is only 0.4F behind the warmest year on record which is occurred in 1931.

Long range models are hinting at a soggy Christmas Eve and Christmas Day across the Upper Midwest. There is still a lot of time between now and then, so there could be some changes, including the potential for some snow on the backside of the system if we cool down enough. Again, lots could change, but we're getting indications of a more active signal around the holiday travel. Stay tuned...

The extended precipitation outlook across the state shows a couple to a few tenths of an inch of precipitation possible through early next week as our next storm system moves through the area. At this point, temperatures look warm enough to be most rain on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but there could be a little light snow around parts of the region. Stay tuned for more updates.

Looking around the region, there is no climate site that has a surplus. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.

Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, December 20th will be dry and quiet with temperatures warming into the upper 30s by the afternoon, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for this time of the year. Skies will be dry and mostly sunny once again with Easterly winds around 15mph through the day.

Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start in the mid 20s in the morning and will warm into the upper 30s by the afternoon with dry and sunny skies. Easterly winds will be around 15mph, which will make it feel a bit cooler, but still pretty warm for this time of the year.

The weather outlook for Wednesday will warm into the 30s across much of the state with some low/mid 40s across the Southwestern part of the state. Temps around the state will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for mid December.

It won't be quite as warm on Christmas Day, but it'll be close to records in many spots including the Twin Cities with the high temp climbing into the upper 40s once again. The record for Christmas Day is 51F, so we'll be close.

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be quite a bit warmer than average over the next several days and into the weekend. Highs will warm into the 30s and 40s, which be nearly +15F to +25F above average with the warmest day being Saturday and Sunday when temps we get close to 50F once again and at or near record warmth.

The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days will be pretty warm with a string of 40s developing this week will lingering into the weekend ahead. Note that the forecast for Christmas Eve is around 50F, which could be a record high for the date. The current record is 46F set in 1957. There could be a few sprinkles late Thursday into Friday, but a bigger storm system looks to develop on Christmas Eve Sunday into Christmas Day Monday.

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, the extended forecast looks very warm through the end of the month with highs will warming into the 30s and 40s. The warmest days could come around the Christmas holiday with record highs possible along with RAIN!

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the nation and especially in the Midwest.

I was hanging out down at the isobar and someone came up and asked me why we're seeing October in December? I put down my drink. "This is one big, foamy pour of El Nino, washed down with a climate change chaser." He blinked and wandered off.

This will be the 8th brown Christmas since 2000. Other years with under 1" on the ground December 25: 2002, 2006, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2018 and 2021. In stark contrast to 2010, when MSP woke up to 19" Christmas morning. All or nothing, right?

A little drizzle may fall Friday morning, but most of the rain comes Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Even a rumble of thunder? 50F is possible Christmas Eve (old MSP record is 46). I see consistent 40s into next Monday, followed by a cooling trend.

And here is where it gets interesting. Our Christmas storm stalls near Chicago, pulling colder air into Minnesota, with a few inches of slushy snow next Tuesday into Thursday. No promises or details, but at least we have a shot. But no bitter air in sight. In the meantime who's thirsty?

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: E 8-13. High 40.

THURSDAY: Clouds increase, still dry. Winds: SE 10-15. High 41.

FRIDAY: Clouds and fog, a little rain. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 33. High 42.

SATURDAY: Clouds linger, unseasonably mild. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 35. High 47.

CHRISTMAS EVE (SUNDAY): Record warmth. Rain - possible thunder. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 42. High 50.

CHRISTMAS DAY (MONDAY): Showers taper. Slushy snow southeast? Winds: NE 10-25. Wake-up: 40. High: 42.

December 20th

1989: Minnesotans are hard pressed to find snow cover across most of the state. Only good places to cross country ski are at Grand Marais and along the Gunflint Trail.

December 20th

Average High: 27F (Record: 51F set in 1967)

Average Low: 14F (Record: -24F set in 1916)

Record Snowfall: 4.6" set in 2010

December 20th

Sunrise: 7:46am

Sunset: 4:34pm

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 47 minutes

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 50 Minutes

1.5 Days Since First Quarter Moon

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows warmer than average temperatures across much of the Central and Western half of the nation. Meanwhile, folks in the Southeastern US will be cooler than average.

The National Weather Outlook on Wednesday shows areas of rain and thunder across California. This is part of the same storm that will bring us rain around the upcoming holiday on Sunday and Monday. Too early to tell if there will be any substantial snow close to home.

The National Weather outlook through Thursday shows areas of heavy rain and some thunder moving into the Southwestern US. As this area of low pressure sags into the Southwestern US, the Gulf of Mexico will be open for business and will start sending moisture northwest into the Central US, some of which will eventually make it into the Midwest later this week and especially into the weekend and early next week.

According to the ECMWF weather model, heavy snows are in the forecast across parts of the Western US through early next week. Some of the heaviest and most widespread could be in the high elevations in Colorado and Wyoming. However, there will be some decent tallies in the Plains.

"It was the hottest year on Earth in 125,000 years, and #climatescam is taking off. In 1995, a leading group of scientists convened by the United Nations declared that they had detected a "human influence" on global temperatures with "effectively irreversible" consequences. In the coming decades, 99.9 percent of scientists would come to agree that burning fossil fuels had disrupted the Earth's climate. Yet almost 30 years after that warning, during the hottest year on Earth in 125,000 years, people are still arguing that the science is unreliable, or that the threat is real but we shouldn't do anything about climate change. Conspiracies are thriving online, according to a report by the coalition Climate Action Against Disinformation released last month, in time for the U.N. climate conference in Dubai. Over the past year, posts with the hashtag #climatescam have gotten more likes and retweets on the platform known as X than ones with #climatecrisis or #climateemergency."

See more from Grist HERE:

"If there's one thing we can count on with the weather, it's to expect the unexpected. This year has brought several unprecedented weather events with 25 confirmed weather-caused disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion, according to the National Oceanic and Weather Administration. From the recent deadly tornadoes in the south to smoke-choked skies and atmospheric rivers, scorching heatwaves and super fog, weather events in 2023 offer many examples of growing weather volatility. Extreme Heat It was an intensely hot summer across the globe in 2023 with the global mean temperature at the highest level on record, more than 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Almost every corner of the U.S. experienced extreme heat this past year —and it was recently announced that 2023 will go in the books as the warmest year on record. The frequency of hot days is increasing, as is the frequency of heat waves in the U.S., which is up to six every year from two a year just 50 years ago."

See more from Forbes HERE:

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