Clouds decrease Saturday, with rain chances Sunday night Into Monday morning

Over the week ending Tuesday morning (the cut-off for the weekly drought update), we saw above-average precipitation across southern and northwestern Minnesota (some of this in the form of rain, some in snow).

With that above-average precipitation, we saw some improvement in the drought monitor update released Thursday morning. While most of the state (93.79%) of the state is still at least abnormally dry, only 43.67% is at least in Moderate Drought, and 20.66% in Severe Drought. A sliver of southwestern Minnesota (0.25% of the state) still remains under Extreme Drought, but that is also down from 1.13% last week.

Most of the improvement in the drought situation occurred in southern and western Minnesota.

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I think we'll start out the day on Saturday in the metro with more clouds than sunshine; however, those clouds look to fade a bit to allow more sunshine as we head through the afternoon hours. Morning temperatures start off in the upper 20s with highs in the mid-40s.

An isolated snowflake can't be ruled out on Saturday along the International Border, otherwise, quiet weather is expected across the state for the Deer Opener. Skies will be cloudier across northern Minnesota, with more peeks of the sun the farther you go south. Highs range from freezing in northwestern Minnesota to the 50s in southwestern areas (areas that also see more sunshine).

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Sunday: A mainly cloudy day is expected. I can't rule out an isolated shower in the metro, but most of the rain during the daytime hours will be up across northern Minnesota (particularly Lake Mille Lacs northward). The best rain chance in the metro will move in for Sunday Night. Highs will be in the low to mid-50s.

Monday: A few showers could remain in the morning hours, but the system impacting the region to end the weekend will mostly be out of our hair. Skies remain mainly cloudy with highs in the low 50s.

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Right now it doesn't look like we're going to see a major cold snap in our near-term future, as highs look to cool only into the 40s after we see the 50s late this weekend and early next week. Another system looks to cross the state as we head toward the middle of next week. With temperatures in the mid to upper 40s in the metro, precipitation should fall as mostly rain, but some snow might be possible in northern Minnesota. Highs fall back to the low 40s behind that system for late next week, before we start to see temperatures start to climb back upward toward mid-November

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Drought Fading Across Much Of Minnesota
By Paul Douglas

The drought is over. But wait, there are terms and conditions and various disclaimers. The drought is over for most of the Twin Cities metro, but moderate drought still grips the far northern suburbs with severe drought for much of central Minnesota. We are now in a wetter pattern, and big storms since late September have closed a gaping rainfall deficit.

It's premature to declare victory, but we are in better shape. El Nino winters tend to be drier with the biggest, wettest storms sailing south of home. Patchy drought may yet spill into 2024. We aren't entirely out of the woods, but now I can see the forest through the trees.

A dry Firearm Deer Hunting Opener is on tap today with 40s, a light southwest breeze and peeks of sunshine. We've seen worse.

Sunday brings 50s (woo-hoo!) and a growing chance of showers during the day, with light rain spilling into Monday morning.

40s return next week with more rain Tuesday. Welcome to a wet pattern, with spotty rain into mid-November. It could be worse!

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Some sun, breezy. Wake up 29. High 47. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Milder with showery rain. Wake up 38. High 54. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Showers taper, cooling off. Wake up 47. High 50. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY: More rain moving in. Wake up 36. High 45. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds linger, a damp wind. Wake up 40. High 48. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, seasonably cool. Wake up 35. High 46. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Peeks of sun, feels like November. Wake up 29. High 41. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
November 4th

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 1 minute, and 53 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 43 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 10 Hours Of Sunlight? November 5th (9 hours, 59 minutes, 11 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise Before We "Fall Back": November 4th (7:55 AM)
*Earliest Sunset Before We "Fall Back": November 4th (5:57 PM)

Don't Forget - We "Fall Back" Sunday Morning At 2 AM!
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This Day in Weather History
November 4th

1982: 20 inches of snow falls in the Kabatogema area.

1901: With a high temperature of only 22 and a low of 15, 175 boxcars of potatoes are in peril at the Minneapolis rail yard. Workers scrambled to move the rail cars full of tubers in roundhouses and transfer potatoes to refrigerated cars. Individual stoves had to be purchased on the spot for 59 remaining cars. Thankfully, most of the spuds were saved.

1853: A cold snap begins at Ft. Snelling. The next four days would be 16 degrees or lower.

1727: The first outdoor celebration at the chapel of Fort Beauharnois on Lake Pepin is postponed due to 'variableness of the weather.'

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A new system will impact the Northwestern United States on Saturday, bringing the region more rain and snow. A system working east will bring some snow and rain concerns to the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, just a few other scattered areas of precipitation are expected in the eastern U.S.

Heavy rainfall will continue to impact the Northwest through the weekend, with three-day totals of over 3" for some - especially along the coast and up into the Cascades where most of the precipitation will fall as rain.

A few inches of snow can't be ruled out, though, in the Cascades and Northern Rockies.

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Study links changes in global water cycle to higher temperatures

More from Washington University in St. Louis: "A study from the Past Global Changes (PAGES) Iso2k project team, led by Bronwen Konecky at Washington University in St. Louis, takes an important step toward reconstructing a global history of water over the past 2,000 years. Using geologic and biologic evidence preserved in natural archives — including 759 different paleoclimate records from globally distributed corals, trees, ice, cave formations and sediments — the researchers showed that the global water cycle has changed during periods of higher and lower temperatures in the recent past."

Full steam ahead for electric freight trains

More from Canary Media: "Electricity is taking over the transportation sector, with batteries replacing fossil-fuel engines in a growing number of passenger cars, big-rig trucks, school buses, delivery vans, speedboats and ferries. Yet one category in particular is only just starting to get on board with battery power: freight trains. In the United States, tens of thousands of locomotives rumble down railroads every year, pulling cars that collectively carry around 20 billion tons of cargo. All of these powerful engines run on diesel fuel — and, as a result, generate both planet-warming emissions and harmful air pollution that afflicts communities surrounding rail yards and railways. This week, Wabtec Corp., a rail technology company, took what it says is a ​"major step" toward electrifying this heavy-duty industry."

Without Warning: A Lack of Weather Stations Is Costing African Lives

More from Yale Environment 360: "In early May, heavy rainfall led to severe flooding and hundreds of landslides around Lake Kivu, on the border between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), killing at least 600 people. The floods, which caught many as they slept, also displaced thousands of people, destroyed water infrastructure, and damaged productive farm fields. Floods are one of the deadliest natural disasters worldwide, but deaths linked with flooding aren't distributed evenly. They most often occur in places that lack weather data and warning systems — and most of those places are in the Global South. While the rainfall around Lake Kivu this past spring was extremely heavy, it was the lack of warming that turned this weather event into a humanitarian disaster. To avoid similar disasters in the future, countries in Africa and other parts of the world need funding for early warning systems, weather stations, and climate modeling. Such investments will benefit people the world over."

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- D.J. Kayser