Cold Start to December. Light Snow Chances
Quiet and somewhat warmer weather will be in place on Sunday with light snow possible farther north. A little more light snow will be possible on Tuesday, but no major snow storms are brewing. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
According to the CDC, the influenza A strain is pretty widespread across the country. Since Thanksgiving, numbers have increased significantly across the nation with a large spike occurring in Minnesota as well. The flu activity level close to home is considered to be high to very high.
Weather Outlook Through Next Week
The extended weather outlook through the first full week of December shows fairly quiet conditions in place. However, there could be a little snow late Sunday, Tuesday and later in the week, but it doesn't look like anything will be significant.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday
Here's the weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, December 4th, which looks warmer than it was on Saturday. High temps will warm to near 30F with lots of sunshine.
Weather Outlook on Sunday
Temps across the region on Sunday will be at or slightly below average for early December with readings warming into the 20s and 30s across the state. Weather conditions will generally be quiet, but there could be light snow later in the day across the northern part of the state.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temps on Sunday will be chilly to start in the morning with readings in the teens. High temps late in the day will approach 30F, which will be a little below average for this time of the year. Southwesterly winds will be a little breezy through the day with gusts approaching 20mph to 25mph, especially in the afternoon.
Hourly Feels Like Temps
Feels like temps will start in the single digits in the morning, but will warm to around 20F by the afternoon. It'll still be plenty chilly, so bundle up if you're planning on being out and about on Sunday.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
The Twin Cities is nearly nearly -9.37" below average for the year, which is the 19th driest start to any year on record (through December 3rd). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.41"above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.
Drought Update
It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis cooler than average temperatures continuing into the first full week of December. The chilliest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday with highs only warming into the upper teens.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows chilly temps continuing with the coldest days Tuesday and Wednesday. There could be a little snow on Tuesday and again later in the week.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Here's the ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the middle part of December looks a little colder than average at times, but it doesn't look too terribly cold and certainly nothing Arctic.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across the Western US. Warmer than average temps will be in place across the Southern and Northeastern US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the northern tier of the nation.
Cold Start to December. Light Snow Chances
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
I have fond memories of my Grandma Nelson around the holiday season making gingerbread cookies and listening to Bing Crosby's Christmas Classics on cassette tape. In honor of my grandma, I whipped up a batch of gingerbread dough and will continue the tradition with my kids on this National Cookie Day. Hey Alexa, play Bing Crosby.
Yesterday was a "foxy" weather day. The true definition of which means misleadingly bright. When a day looks sunny and warm, but is actually bitterly cold. It was the coldest morning since March with wind chills dipping into the sub-zero range across the state. Brr!
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, December will be generally be chillier than average through at least mid month. I don't see any major snow storms brewing, but another round of nuisance snow could muck up commutes again on Tuesday. Keep in mind that December averages around 12 inches of snow for the month, so inevitably, there will be more snow. By the way, the shortest day of the year (winter solstice) is only 3 weeks away!
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Bright sun. Not as cold. Winds: SW 7-12. High: 30.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, light snow chances. Winds: SW 5-10. Low: 24.
MONDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. A few flakes? Winds: NNW 5-10. High: 28.
TUESDAY: Chance of minor snow accumulations. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 8. High: 21.
WEDNESDAY: AM flurries. Gradual PM clearing. Winds: SSE 5-10. Wake-up: 11. High: 20.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and quiet. Winds: S 5. Wake-up: 8. High: 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy skies. Light snow develops late. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 17. High: 30.
SATURDAY: Increasing snow chance. Winds: ESE 10-15. Wake-up: 25. High: 33.
This Day in Weather History
December 4th
1886: Minneapolis hits a record-setting 15 degrees below zero.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 4th
Average High: 33F (Record: 57F set in 2017)
Average Low: 19F (Record: -15F set in 1886)
Record Rainfall: 0.58" set in 1877
Record Snowfall: 4.2" set in 1947
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 4th
Sunrise: 7:33am
Sunset: 4:32pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 58 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 20 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 38 minutes
Moon Phase for December 4th at Midnight
2.9 Days Until Full "Cold" Moon
"10:08 p.m. CST - December is usually considered the month that the winter cold fastens its grip on the Northern Hemisphere. Sometimes this moon is referred to as the Long Nights Moon, and the nights are indeed at their longest. The moon is above the horizon a long time. On occasion, this moon was also called the Moon before Yule. This particular full moon makes its highest arc across the sky because it is opposite to the low sun. And on this very same night, another celestial object will also be opposite to the sun: Mars, which arrives at opposition 87 minutes after the moon turns full. Depending on your location, you will see Mars shining like a brilliant yellow-orange star, either hovering very close below the moon, or you will see the moon actually pass in front of Mars, producing an occultation."
National High Temps on Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday shows cooler than average temps across much of the nation with the exception of the Central Plains. Areas of snow will be found in the Western US with accumulations likely for some.
National Weather Outlook Sunday
The weather outlook for Sunday shows active weather in place across the Western US. Areas of showers and storms will be found along the coast with high elevation snows likely.
National Weather Outlook
Weather conditions will be in place across the Western US with widespread heavy rain along the coast. Meanwhile, the high elevations will pick up heavy snowfall.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavy precipitation across the Western US and through the Intermountain-West. There will also be another heavier batch of rain in the Central US through the week ahead.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), areas of heavy snowfall will be found in the Western US, especially in the high elevations. There could also be plowable snow across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes through mid month. Stay tuned...
Climate Stories
"Sun activity: Fiery limbs on today's sun"
"Today's top news: We're seeing fiery limbs (edges) on the sun today, with beautiful prominences both in the northeast and in the west. The whole east side of our star, as viewed from Earth, is promising. As we commented yesterday, on the southeast limb, AR3153 rapidly became the largest active region as soon as it came into view. But the northeast was not far behind. As can be seen on our top animation, the northeast limb looks very active. The newcomer active region in that area is now labeled AR3156. And an area close to AR3156 blasted out a C8.1 flare yesterday (reported yesterday; see below). The great news is that both AR3153 and AR3156 are on the sun's east side. So we'll see them for some days, as the sun's rotation carries them westward. NOAA forecasters increased the chances for C and M flaring, largely due these two active regions. Elsewhere on the sun … we have now a large coronal hole spanning on both hemispheres north and south. Hopefully, with all this promise, there's more geomagnetic activity – and more auroras – to come."
"California's Water Thieves Are Getting Away With It"
"It's not easy enforcing water regulations in the West. Just ask the officials in California who have been trying for almost a decade to penalize a man who took water from the river system that feeds San Francisco and bottled it for sale to stores like Starbucks. It sounds like a tall tale, but it's illustrative of just how hard it is to stop scofflaws from using water the rest of the state needs during a water crisis. In 2015, at the height of a severe drought, California's state water agency received a series of complaints about water theft on a small tributary of the Tuolumne River, the source of the Hetch Hetchy reservoir that supplies most of San Francisco's water."
"The bizarre and destructive 2022 hurricane season ends"
"The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season draws to an official close on November 30, after generating 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, two major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 95. Those numbers compare with the 1991-2020 averages for an entire season of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 123. Thus, the season was near-average for number of named storms and hurricanes, and below average for major hurricanes and ACE index, and it breaks an unprecedented streak of six consecutive years with an above-average ACE index (>126)."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
But next week will end with comfortable 60s and 70s.