Winter in the United States may be more varied this year compared to last — with colder and snowier conditions likely in the North and the potential for drier weather than is typical in the South and relative warmth in the Southeast, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook released Thursday morning.
The season is expected to be dominated by a weak La Niña climate pattern. Although the effects from no two La Niña phases are exactly the same, they feature cooler-than-normal water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The most recent winter during a La Niña was the 2022-2023 season.
A La Niña watch remains in effect, and the pattern has been somewhat slow to materialize so far. In a flip from last winter’s strong El Niño, NOAA and other forecast agencies still believe a weak La Niña is likely this winter.
Indeed, a typical La Niña pattern is expected over the course of the three months.
It often features a semi-permanent dip in the jet stream over Canada and the northwest United States and higher pressure off the Southeast coast, which leads to a warmer east and cooler west in many instances.
An active inland storm track is frequent during a La Niña episode, and that may include many storms that are moisture starved given their origin. Given the usual storm track is farther north than normal, it is more removed from oceanic moisture compared with storms in El Niño that originate farther south, but the dynamic nature of La Niña events can counteract other lacking ingredients.
At times during the season, there may be higher risk than normal for severe weather in the Southeast.
There will likely be higher potential for variability in weather patterns than last winter, which featured relative stability across the season.