Does college football signing day really matter in the transfer portal era?

The backbone of a productive incoming class of Gophers recruits this year is formed by the top prep players from Minnesota, Wisconsin and North Dakota — all of them four-star recruits, the best of whom might be Esko safety Koi Perich who had late attention from Ohio State before sticking with the Gophers.

In all, the Gophers' incoming class — national letters of intent have been pouring in already Wednesday, the first day of the signing period — has 19 high school players.

But the reality is this: It takes only a realist, not a cynic, to wonder just how many of those 19 players will actually complete their careers at Minnesota.

The ease of changing schools via the transfer portal, given a boost of jet fuel by big money from Name, Image and Likeness rules, has undeniably changed bigtime college sports.

On one hand, this is tremendous news for the athletes whose labor has turned college football and other sports into a multi-billion dollar industry. They are free to change their situations and to profit from their talent, popularity or both.

But as I talked about on Wednesday's Daily Delivery podcast, it also means we need to reframe how we think of signing day. NIL hasn't quite rendered the NLI obsolete, but high school signing day has certainly lost some of its significance.

Consider this: According to SportSource Analytics, transfer players made up 6.4% of rosters at the FBS level in college football in 2019. By this season, that number had swelled to 20.5%, a more than three-fold increase in just four years. That number will level off at some point, but it seems likely to continue to climb.

Quarterbacks are the biggest impact players in the portal, which has forced coaches — including the Gophers' P.J. Fleck — to adapt. He's added two quarterbacks in the portal in the past couple weeks, including presumed 2024 starter Max Brosmer from New Hampshire.

"At the quarterback position, everybody's looking at the portal, and you can see around the country how fast it moves," Fleck said earlier this week on KFXN radio.

The Gophers still have a traditional high school QB recruit, Arkansas state champion Drake Lindsey, in this year's class. He could be the starter by 2025 or 2026. Or he could be gone quickly if things don't work out.

Statistically speaking, it's extremely likely that at least a handful — quite possibly more — of the 19 high school recruits signing Wednesday don't finish their careers as Gophers.

It's not quite "look to your left, look to your right, one of you won't be here," but it's not that far off.

Here are four more things to know today:

*Transfer portal (Taylor's version): Speaking of player movement, the Star Tribune's Jeff Day joined Wednesday's podcast to discuss the impact of Gophers volleyball star Taylor Landfair entering the transfer portal.

*The other blockbuster trade the Utah Jazz made two offseasons ago isn't working out so great for Cleveland. Here is a big piece on whether the Cavs should trade Donovan Mitchell.

*Please read Marcus Fuller's Basketball Across Minnesota story on Braeden Carrington, the Gophers men's basketball player who has stepped away from the team to prioritize his mental health.

*La Velle E. Neal III will join Thursday's podcast to talk about the Vikings and head coach Kevin O'Connell.