Cooler, Windier Thursday - Even Some Snow In Northern Minnesota?

Have you been enjoying the warm October weather so far? Well, that changes as we head into Thursday! A cold front moves through the state Wednesday Night, bringing mostly cloudy skies as we head through Thursday (though there will be peaks of the sun), breezy northerly winds, and temperatures that will actually slightly fall during the day. That high of 55F? Likely to be set around Midnight.

Wind gusts above 20 mph will be common across the states, popping above 30 mph out toward western Minnesota.

Now, this looks more like a fall temperature map across the state as we head through Thursday. Highs in northern Minnesota may barely make it into the 40s in spots, with 50s in southern Minnesota (though, again, those temperatures will be at least slightly dropping through the day). Mostly cloudy skies can be expected across much of the state, with the sunniest skies possible by the afternoon hours in western areas. A few showers will be possible during the day in northern Minnesota.

Forecast loop: 7 PM Thursday to 1 AM Friday.

And especially by the evening hours some of those rain showers up north could mix over or fall as straight snow showers. Not much - if any - snow accumulation is expected in northern Minnesota. A few tenths could fall in the western U.P. and northern Wisconsin, though, off of Lake Superior.

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That fall feeling will last into the weekend - however, we will start to see a warming trend. Friday stays a good 10-15F degrees below average, but we climb closer to our October 6th average of 64F as we head through the weekend - even matching it on Sunday. The dry trend continues with no rain in the forecast.

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It's been quite a warm start to the month of October, with the first four days of the month coming in almost ten degrees above average. This is only the ninth warmest October 1-4 on record, and last year actually beat out this year with an average temperature of 66.4F (sixth warmest).

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The fall colors are going fast across the state! Already many areas of northern Minnesota are reaching peak color, which I can confirm from my recent trips to Maplewood and Glendalough State Park this past weekend/early in the week. Both of those parks are reporting 75-100% color, with Glendalough saying: "Maples are turning red, yellow, and orange. Ashes, cottonwood, aspen are turning yellow. Prairie grasses are brown and orange and the bright red sumacs are still holding their color on the prairie". You can keep your eye on this map over the next several weeks from the MN DNR by clicking here.

Here's one of my pictures from Tuesday of the fall colors in Glendalough State Park, showing exactly what Glendalough stated Wednesday in their update.

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Putting Deadly Hurricane Ian Into Context
By Paul Douglas

With a death toll over 100 and rising, Ian is now the deadliest hurricane to strike Florida since the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 left over 400 dead. Initial estimates suggest Ian may wind up being Florida's most expensive natural disaster.

There is no evidence that we're seeing more hurricanes, but contrary to crazy Uncle Larry's posts on Facebook, there is evidence of warmer water "juicing" hurricanes, resulting in heavier rain and "rapid intensification". Ian was a poster child, going from a Category 1 last Monday to nearly a Category 5 storm less than 48 hours later.

Another take-away: if you're within NOAA's hurricane warning "cone" you should consider evacuating if you live in a vulnerable area. That was the case nearly 2 days before official evacuation orders went out in the Fort Myers area.

I refuse to retire my shorts yet. But I am dragging more jackets out of cold storage.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, windy. Wake up 50. High 53. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: Chilly with clouds, few sprinkles. Wake up 37. High 49. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and milder. Wake up 43. High 64. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Intervals of sun, pleasant. Wake up 46. High 67. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Some sun, lukewarm breeze? Wake up 50. High 74. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny spells, still lukewarm. Wake up 58. High 76. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

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*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 26 minutes, and 39 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 5 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Daylight?: October 15th (10 hours, 59 minutes, 7 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7:30 AM?: October 16th (7:30 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 6:30 PM?: October 14th (6:29 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
October 6th

1997: Hail, wind, and an F0 tornado are reported in the early morning hours in several counties in west central Minnesota. Near Canby in Yellow Medicine County, hail combined with wind gusts nearing 60 mph damage the roof of a bus garage, elementary school windows and a school vehicle. Renville, McLeod, Carver, Scott, and Dakota counties also receive hail and strong winds. Widespread pea to marble size hail accumulates to three inches deep in several areas, and crops are severely damaged over a large part of Renville county. Many power lines and trees are blown down. Southeast of Bird Island, a barn collapses and kills over 100 pigs. Near Brownton in McLeod County, hail accumulates to a depth of 3 inches with one foot drifts. A brief tornado touches down near Stewart in McLeod County, damaging a few trees.

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As an area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes on Thursday, it'll bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms along with some lake effect snow showers downwind of Lake Superior with it. It is also ushering in much cooler air into the upper Midwest, with places like the Twin Cities likely to set their high early in the day with slowly falling temperatures through the rest of it. Another low-pressure area in the Southwest will bring the threat of storms and some snow as well.

Some pockets of heavier rain will be possible across the Great Lakes into the Northeast and in the Southwest in the next few days. Some areas could have the potential to see up to three inches.

Snow-wise, some light accumulation will be possible at higher elevations of Colorado and New Mexico, as well as downwind of Lake Superior in the U.P. of Michigan and northern Wisconsin, through Friday evening.

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More from EarthSky: "Oceanographers at the University of Michigan said on October 4, 2022, that the asteroid that struck Earth and wiped out the dinosaurs – 66 million years ago – also triggered a vast, global tsunami. The great wave started out as more than a mile (1.6 km) high, they said. It was large enough to scour the ocean floor thousands of miles from the Chicxulub impact site on Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. And it took some days – "less than a week," the scientists said – to dissipate. The authors calculated the initial energy contained in this ancient tsunami. And they found it was up to 30,000 times larger than the energy in the devastating December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake tsunami, one of the largest tsunamis in the modern record. They said in a statement: Any historically documented tsunamis pale in comparison with such global impact."

Meet the California farmers awash in Colorado River water, even in a drought

More from NPR: "A few hundred farms in the southern tip of California, along the Mexican border, may hold the key to saving the drought-plagued Colorado River from collapse. These farmers, in Imperial County, currently draw more water from the Colorado River than all of Arizona and Nevada combined. They inherited the legal right to use that water, but they're now under pressure to give up some of it. The Imperial Valley is a place of jarring contrasts. Half is in its natural state, a bone-dry desert. The other half is mile after mile of green fields lined by irrigation canals. A few of the fields are shrouded by showers of water delivered from long lines of sprinklers."

Most electric car buyers don't switch back to gas

More from Axios: "People who buy electric vehicles (EVs) really like them, according to U.S. vehicle registration data, which shows most EV owners tend to buy an EV for their next car, too. Why it matters: The data reveals a growing embrace of electric cars as automakers and the federal government pour billions of dollars into EV and battery production. What's happening: Axios is tracking the historic shift away from gasoline by examining vehicle registration data from S&P Global Mobility. Here's a peek at the latest data: Roughly two-thirds (65.3%) of EV-owning households that bought a new car in 2022 got another electric. That's up sharply from the second quarter of 2021, when about 48% of EV-owning households in the market for a new car bought another EV."

Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser