Cooler With T-Showers on Wednesday

Upper level winds are showing signs of an apparent heat dome that will set up over the Midwest for several days starting this weekend. The result could send surface temps across much of the region into the 90s and 100s through early next week. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

June 15, 2022 at 2:30AM

Father's Day Outlook

Believe it or not, Father's Day is already this Sunday and it looks like another hot one! Temps will warm into the 90s already by midday, so those outdoor afternoon BBQs will be quite hot. Make sure you find some shade and drink plenty of fluids. Happy Father's Day to all the Dads out there!

Father’s Day Sunday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Severe Threat Wednesday

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across southeastern Minnesota and into Wisconsin. Large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes will be possible, especially in the orange, Enhanced Risk area.

Severe Threat on Wednesday (NOAA SPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hot With T-Storms Chances At Times

Here's the weather outlook from AM Wednesday to PM Sunday. After a hot Tuesday, showers and storms will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The best chance of strong to severe storms will be mainly south and east of the Twin Cities. The rest of the forecast period appears to be mainly dry with a few chances of rain across northern Minnesota.

Weather Outlook From AM Wednesday to PM Sunday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Potential Through Next Week

Here's the rainfall potential through PM Sunday. Showers and storms will be possible south and east of the Twin Cities Tuesday night into Wednesday with some spots seeing nearly 1" of rain, especially in the far southeast corner of the state and into central Wisconsin.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minnesota Drought Update

Thanks to above average precipitation so far this year, we've wiped out much of the drought that was in place to start the year. In fact, as of early January, nearly 10% of the state in northern Minnesota was considered in a severe drought. Now, only 3% of the state is considered to be abnormally dry.

Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows high temps warming to near 80F, which will be quite a bit cooler than it was on Tuesday. There will also be showers and storms, especially during the first half of the day.

Wednesday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temperatures starting in the mid/upper 60s in the morning and warming into the mid/upper 70s by the afternoon. The best chance of showers and storms will be during the first half of the day. Showers and storms will shift east during the afternoon and evening hours. Southerly winds will be lighter than they were on Tuesday, but gusts could still approach 20mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps closer to average on Wednesday. Temperatures will heat up quite a bit as we approach the weekend. We'll be in the mid/upper 90s by late weekend.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows chances of showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday. The rest of the week looks mainly dry with temps warming to well above average levels again late weekend and into early next week.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be hot on Tuesday with highs in the 90s. We'll cool down a bit to near normal levels during the 2nd half of the week, but 90s will be possible again for a few days late weekend into next week.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across much of the central and southern US with cooler than average temps in the northwest and northeast.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows drier weather in place across much of the central US. The Southwestern US could actually see more active weather with increasing precipitation chances.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Cooler With T-Showers on Wednesday
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

I don't know about you, but I was sweating in places I didn't even know I could sweat yesterday. Tuesday was the hottest day in the Twin Cities so far this year with highs warming into the mid/upper 90s and heat index values around 100F. Uffda.

MSP has now had 3 days at 90F or warmer so far this year. Note that a typical June sees 3 days in the 90s, while a typical summer sees 13 days in the 90s or warmer. With that being said, the average suggest that we'll still have plenty more hot days ahead.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, temperatures look to generally remain above average through the last week of the month, so summer is definitely here. By the way, if you haven't glanced at the 7-day forecast yet, you're in for a sweaty surprise. Upper level winds are showing signs of an apparent heat dome that will set up over the Midwest for several days starting this weekend. The result could send surface temps across much of the region into the 90s and 100s through early next week. Lakes and pools will likely be busy.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: T-Storms early. Not as hot. Winds: S 5-10. High: 80.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: SW 5-10. Low: 64.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy & breezy. Winds: WSW 15-30. High: 84.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Heating up again. Winds: NNE 5. Wake-up: 63. High: 87.

SATURDAY: Breezy and hot again. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 65. High: 90.

SUNDAY: A shot at 100F again. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 73. High: 100.

MONDAY: Another scorcher. Find some A/C. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 75. High: 100.

TUESDAY: Isolated t-showers. Winds: WNW 7-12. Wake-up: 75. High: 99.

This Day in Weather History

June 15th

1989: Scattered frost develops across Minnesota, with the coldest reading of 29 at Isabella.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

June 15th

Average High: 79F (Record: 95F set in 2018)

Average Low: 61F (Record: 41F set in 1989)

Record Rainfall: 2.80" set in 1874

Record Snowfall: None

Twin Cities Almanac For June 15th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

June 15th

Sunrise: 5:25am

Sunset: 9:01pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 35 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 27 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 49 Minutes

Moon Phase for June 15th at Midnight

1.8 Days After Full "Flower" Moon

"11:14 pm CDT (May 15th) Flowers are abundant everywhere by this time of year. This moon was also known as the Full Corn Planting Moon or the Milk Moon. This full moon will also undergo a Blood Moon total lunar eclipse. North America will have a ringside seat for it, as totality will occur between the late evening hours of May 15 and the after-midnight hours of May 16 depending on your location. Totality will last 85 minutes."

Moon Phase for June 14th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows well above average temps in the central and eastern US. There will be a number of record highs from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Here's the national weather outlook through PM Thursday, which shows slightly more active weather in place across the northern tier of the nation. Keep in mind that some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall in the Midwest and Great Lakes.

Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the northern tier of the nation. There will also be more active weather in the eastern US and potentially some monsoon moisture in the Southwest with decent rain chances in the Four Corners region.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"The Collapse of an Atlantic Ocean Current Would Ripple Across The World, Says Study"

"Climate change is slowing down the conveyor belt of ocean currents that brings warm water from the tropics up to the North Atlantic. Our research, published today (June 6) in Nature Climate Change, looks at the profound consequences to global climate if this Atlantic conveyor collapses entirely. We found the collapse of this system – called the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation – would shift the Earth's climate to a more La Niña-like state. This would mean more flooding rains over eastern Australia and worse droughts and bushfire seasons over southwest United States. East-coast Australians know what unrelenting La Niña feels like. Climate change has loaded our atmosphere with moister air, while two summers of La Niña warmed the ocean north of Australia. Both contributed to some of the wettest conditions ever experienced, with record-breaking floods in New South Wales and Queensland. Meanwhile, over the southwest of North America, a record drought and severe bushfires have put a huge strain on emergency services and agriculture, with the 2021 fires alone estimated to have cost at least US$70 billion."

"The Spectacular Celestial Event Happening This Month With 5 Planets And The Crescent Moon"

"Stargazers are in for a rare treat this month. In fact, it hasn't happened since December 2004. Throughout June, you'll be able to see Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn — in that planetary order — low in the morning sky, in a diagonal line from the east. Then, on June 24, the waning crescent moon will join the planetary line, between Venus and Mars. Viewing The Planets In June, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn will appear in order about 30 minutes before sunrise. Then, when the sun rises, Mercury, the dimmest of the planets, will no longer be visible due to light from the sun. Interestingly, the planets will appear in a row because they all travel on the plane of the solar system. Although they will appear relatively close together, they actually will be millions of miles away from each other."

"India isn't ready for a deadly combination of heat and humidity"

"Recent heat wave has seen "wet-bulb" temperatures rise to potentially fatal levels. R Lakshmanan has been making steel frames in the southern Indian city of Chennai for 20 years. His job involves standing for long hours outdoors at construction sites, pounding screws with careful precision onto steel rods. Each day he makes nearly 600 frames, which end up becoming the skeleton of a home. Often he works 12-hour shifts, beginning at 6 am. He always feels fortunate when he gets to work under a shady tree. But this year, that protection hasn't been enough. Ever since temperatures in March hit a sizzling 38° Celsius—4° above normal for Chennai—the conditions have been stifling. The metal frames Lakshmanan works with have been too hot to touch, the steel burning his fingertips and leaving behind painful sores. He has seen construction workers, especially women, collapse around him, and has had to take breaks during the workday to cope with fits of dizziness and nausea. "On some days, there's so much heat, it feels like you're living in a fireball," he says."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

See More